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Fuzzy probabilistic seismic hazard analysis with applications to Kunming city, China

Author

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  • Jelena M. Andrić

    (Harbin Institute of Technology)

  • Da-Gang Lu

    (Harbin Institute of Technology)

Abstract

China is prone to highly frequent earthquakes due to specific geographical location, which could cause significant losses to society and economy. The task of seismic hazard analysis is to estimate the potential level of ground motion parameters that would be produced by future earthquakes. In this paper, a novel method based on fuzzy logic techniques and probabilistic approach is proposed for seismic hazard analysis (FPSHA). In FPSHA, we employ fuzzy sets for quantification of earthquake magnitude and source-to-site distance, and fuzzy inference rules for ground motion attenuation relationships. The membership functions for earthquake magnitude and source-to-site distance are provided based on expert judgments, and the construction of fuzzy rules for peak ground acceleration relationships is also based on expert judgment. This methodology enables to include aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in the process of seismic hazard analysis. The advantage of the proposed method is in its efficiency, reliability, practicability, and precision. A case study is investigated for seismic hazard analysis of Kunming city in Yunnan Province, People’s Republic of China. The results of the proposed fuzzy logic-based model are compared to other models, which confirms the accuracy in predicting the probability of exceeding a certain level of the peak ground acceleration. Further, the results can provide a sound basis for decision making of disaster reduction and prevention in Yunnan province.

Suggested Citation

  • Jelena M. Andrić & Da-Gang Lu, 2017. "Fuzzy probabilistic seismic hazard analysis with applications to Kunming city, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 89(3), pages 1031-1057, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:89:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-017-3007-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-3007-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Rabia Tehseen & Muhammad Shoaib Farooq & Adnan Abid, 2020. "Earthquake Prediction Using Expert Systems: A Systematic Mapping Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-32, March.
    2. Fengjie Gao & Si Zhang & Rui Yu & Yafang Zhao & Yuxin Chen & Ying Zhang, 2023. "Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment Based on a Comprehensive Model Using Geospatial Techniques in Songnen Plain, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-19, June.

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