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A globally deployable strategy for co-development of adaptation preferences to sea-level rise: the public participation case of Santos, Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Jose A. Marengo

    (Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alerta de Desastres Naturais CEMADEN)

  • Luci H. Nunes

    (Universidade Estadual de Campinas)

  • Celia R. G. Souza

    (Instituto Geológico)

  • Joseph Harari

    (Universidade de São Paulo)

  • Frank Muller-Karger

    (University of South Florida)

  • Roberto Greco

    (Universidade Estadual de Campinas)

  • Eduardo K. Hosokawa

    (Prefeitura de Santos)

  • Ernesto K. Tabuchi

    (Prefeitura de Santos)

  • Samuel B. Merrill

    (GEI Consultants, Inc.)

  • Catherine J. Reynolds

    (University of South Florida)

  • Mark Pelling

    (King’s College London)

  • Lincoln M. Alves

    (Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais INPE)

  • Luiz E. Aragão

    (Observação da Terra OBT-Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais INPE)

  • Sin C. Chou

    (Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais INPE)

  • Fabiano Moreira

    (Universidade Estadual de Campinas)

  • Shona Paterson

    (University College Cork)

  • Jonathan T. Lockman

    (GEI Consultants, Inc.)

  • Alexander G. Gray

    (GEI Consultants, Inc.)

Abstract

Sea-level rise (SLR) poses a range of threats to natural and built environments in coastal zones around the world. Assessment of the risks due to exposure and sensitivity of coastal communities to coastal flooding is essential for informed decision-making. Strategies for public understanding and awareness of the tangible effects of climate change are fundamental in developing policy options. A multidisciplinary, multinational team of natural and social scientists from the USA, the UK, and Brazil developed the METROPOLE Project to evaluate how local governments may decide between adaptation options associated with SLR projections. METROPOLE developed a participatory approach in which public actors engage fully in defining the research problem and evaluating outcomes. Using a case study of the city of Santos, in Brazil, METROPOLE developed a method for evaluating risks jointly with the community, comparing ‘no-action’ to ‘adaptation’ scenarios. At the core of the analysis are estimates of economic costs of the impact of floods on urban real estate under SLR projections through 2050 and 2100. Results helped identify broad preferences and orientations in adaptation planning, which the community, including the Santos municipal government, co-developed in a joint effort with natural and social scientists.

Suggested Citation

  • Jose A. Marengo & Luci H. Nunes & Celia R. G. Souza & Joseph Harari & Frank Muller-Karger & Roberto Greco & Eduardo K. Hosokawa & Ernesto K. Tabuchi & Samuel B. Merrill & Catherine J. Reynolds & Mark , 2017. "A globally deployable strategy for co-development of adaptation preferences to sea-level rise: the public participation case of Santos, Brazil," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(1), pages 39-53, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:88:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-017-2855-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2855-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paul Kirshen & Samuel Merrill & Peter Slovinsky & Norman Richardson, 2012. "Simplified method for scenario-based risk assessment adaptation planning in the coastal zone," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(3), pages 919-931, August.
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    4. Mathew E. Hauer & Jason M. Evans & Deepak R. Mishra, 2016. "Millions projected to be at risk from sea-level rise in the continental United States," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(7), pages 691-695, July.
    5. Zhaoqing Yang & Taiping Wang & Ruby Leung & Kathy Hibbard & Tony Janetos & Ian Kraucunas & Jennie Rice & Benjamin Preston & Tom Wilbanks, 2014. "A modeling study of coastal inundation induced by storm surge, sea-level rise, and subsidence in the Gulf of Mexico," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(3), pages 1771-1794, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wieteska-Rosiak Beata, 2020. "Real Estate Sector in the Face of Climate Change Adaptation in Major Polish Cities," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 28(1), pages 51-63, March.

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