IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgfe/2022-43.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Climate-related Financial Stability Risks for the United States: Methods and Applications

Author

Abstract

This report has two objectives: 1. Review the available literature on Climate-Related Financial Stability Risks (CRFSRs) as it pertains to the United States. Specifically, the literature review considers several modeling approaches and aims to 1.1 Identify financial market vulnerabilities (e.g., bank leverage), 1.2 Provide an assessment of those vulnerabilities (high/medium/low) as identified by the current literature, and 1.3 Evaluate the uncertainty surrounding these assessments based on interpretation of the findings and coverage of existing literature (high/low). 2. Identify methodologies to link climate risks to financial stability and possible research paths to assess U.S. CRFSRs. The report is structured in three parts. First, it characterizes the potential financial system vulnerabilities of climate change. Second, it describes the major methodologies adopted in studying the implications of climate change and provides an assessment of financial system vulnerabilities identified by the current literature. Third, it discusses how different methodologies can be further developed or combined to assess U.S. CRFSRs.

Suggested Citation

  • Celso Brunetti & John Caramichael & Matteo Crosignani & Benjamin Dennis & Gurubala Kotta & Donald P. Morgan & Chaehee Shin & Ilknur Zer, 2022. "Climate-related Financial Stability Risks for the United States: Methods and Applications," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-043, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2022-43
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2022.043
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2022043pap.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.17016/FEDS.2022.043?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vasco M Carvalho & Makoto Nirei & Yukiko U Saito & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2021. "Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(2), pages 1255-1321.
    2. Mathew E. Hauer & Jason M. Evans & Deepak R. Mishra, 2016. "Millions projected to be at risk from sea-level rise in the continental United States," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(7), pages 691-695, July.
    3. Lamperti, F. & Dosi, G. & Napoletano, M. & Roventini, A. & Sapio, A., 2018. "Faraway, So Close: Coupled Climate and Economic Dynamics in an Agent-based Integrated Assessment Model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 315-339.
    4. Jorgenson, Dale W. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 1993. "Reducing US carbon emissions: an econometric general equilibrium assessment," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 7-25, March.
    5. Fischer, Carolyn & Springborn, Michael, 2011. "Emissions targets and the real business cycle: Intensity targets versus caps or taxes," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 352-366.
    6. Stefano BATTISTON, 2019. "The importance of being forward-looking: managing financial stability in the face of climate risk," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 23, pages 39-48, June.
    7. Stephie Fried, 2018. "Climate Policy and Innovation: A Quantitative Macroeconomic Analysis," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 90-118, January.
    8. Roberton C. Williams III & Hal Gordon & Dallas Burtraw & Jared C. Carbone & Richard D. Morgenstern, 2015. "The Initial Incidence of a Carbon Tax Across Income Groups," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 68(1), pages 195-214, March.
    9. Olga Filippova & Cuong Nguyen & Ilan Noy & Michael Rehm, 2020. "Who Cares? Future Sea Level Rise and House Prices," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 96(2), pages 207-224.
    10. Qin Fan & Meri Davlasheridze, 2019. "Economic Impacts Of Migration And Brain Drain After Major Catastrophe: The Case Of Hurricane Katrina," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(01), pages 1-21, February.
    11. Jean-Noël Barrot & Julien Sauvagnat, 2016. "Input Specificity and the Propagation of Idiosyncratic Shocks in Production Networks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(3), pages 1543-1592.
    12. Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham & Matthew T. Gustafson & Ryan C. Lewis & Michael Schwert, 2022. "Sea Level Rise Exposure and Municipal Bond Yields," NBER Working Papers 30660, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Rzeznik, Aleksandra & Weiss-Hanley, Kathleen, 2021. "The Salience of ESG Ratings for Stock Pricing: Evidence From (Potentially) Confused Investors," CEPR Discussion Papers 16334, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Adam Rose & Shu‐Yi Liao, 2005. "Modeling Regional Economic Resilience to Disasters: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Water Service Disruptions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 75-112, February.
    15. Erik Ens & Craig Johnston, 2020. "Scenario Analysis and the Economic and Financial Risks from Climate Change," Discussion Papers 2020-3, Bank of Canada.
    16. Antoine Bouveret, 2017. "Liquidity Stress Tests for Investment Funds: A Practical Guide," IMF Working Papers 2017/226, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Bilal, Adrien & Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban, 2023. "Anticipating Climate Change Across the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 18192, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Benjamin D. Keen & Michael R. Pakko, 2011. "Monetary Policy and Natural Disasters in a DSGE Model," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 77(4), pages 973-990, April.
    19. Garth Heutel, 2012. "How Should Environmental Policy Respond to Business Cycles? Optimal Policy under Persistent Productivity Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 244-264, April.
    20. Yunguang Chen & Lawrence H. Goulder & Marc A. C. Hafstead, 2018. "The Sensitivity Of Co2 Emissions Under A Carbon Tax To Alternative Baseline Forecasts," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 1-24, February.
    21. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Andrey V. ZUBAREV & Andrey POLBIN, 2021. "Will the Paris accord accelerate climate change [Ускоряет Ли Парижское Соглашение Изменение Климата?]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 8-37, February.
    22. Michael Barnett & William Brock & Lars Peter Hansen, 2022. "Climate Change Uncertainty Spillover in the Macroeconomy," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(1), pages 253-320.
    23. Diaz-Gimenez, Javier & Prescott, Edward C. & Fitzgerald, Terry & Alvarez, Fernando, 1992. "Banking in computable general equilibrium economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 533-559.
    24. Diego R. Känzig, 2023. "The Unequal Economic Consequences of Carbon Pricing," NBER Working Papers 31221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Miyuki Hino & Marshall Burke, 2020. "Does Information About Climate Risk Affect Property Values?," NBER Working Papers 26807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Mikhail Golosov & John Hassler & Per Krusell & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2014. "Optimal Taxes on Fossil Fuel in General Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(1), pages 41-88, January.
    27. Stéphane Hallegatte, 2008. "An adaptive regional input-output model and its application to the assessment of the economic cost of Katrina," Post-Print hal-00716550, HAL.
    28. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Di Dio, Fabio, 2015. "Environmental policy and macroeconomic dynamics in a new Keynesian model," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1-21.
    29. Dunz, Nepomuk & Hrast Essenfelder, Arthur & Mazzocchetti, Andrea & Monasterolo, Irene & Raberto, Marco, 2023. "Compounding COVID-19 and climate risks: The interplay of banks’ lending and government’s policy in the shock recovery," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    30. Robert S. Pindyck, 2017. "The Use and Misuse of Models for Climate Policy," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 11(1), pages 100-114.
    31. Huynh, Thanh D. & Xia, Ying, 2021. "Climate Change News Risk and Corporate Bond Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(6), pages 1985-2009, September.
    32. Roberton C. Williams III & Hal Gordon & Dallas Burtraw & Jared C. Carbone & Richard D. Morgenstern, 2014. "The Initial Incidence of a Carbon Tax Across U.S. States," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 67(4), pages 807-830, December.
    33. Francisco Pérez-González & Hayong Yun, 2013. "Risk Management and Firm Value: Evidence from Weather Derivatives," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(5), pages 2143-2176, October.
    34. Dissou, Yazid & Karnizova, Lilia, 2016. "Emissions cap or emissions tax? A multi-sector business cycle analysis," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 169-188.
    35. Jesse M. Keenan & Jacob T. Bradt, 2020. "Underwaterwriting: from theory to empiricism in regional mortgage markets in the U.S," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 2043-2067, October.
    36. Marcin Czupryna & Christian Franzke & Sascha Hokamp & Jürgen Scheffran, 2020. "An Agent-Based Approach to Integrated Assessment Modelling of Climate Change," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 23(3), pages 1-7.
    37. Bernstein, Asaf & Gustafson, Matthew T. & Lewis, Ryan, 2019. "Disaster on the horizon: The price effect of sea level rise," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 253-272.
    38. Wilfred Beckerman & Cameron Hepburn, 2007. "Ethics of the Discount Rate in the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 8(1), pages 187-210, January.
    39. Fernando Alvarez & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1992. "Banking in computable general equilibrium economies: technical appendices I and II," Staff Report 155, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    40. Markus Baldauf & Lorenzo Garlappi & Constantine Yannelis & José Scheinkman, 2020. "Does Climate Change Affect Real Estate Prices? Only If You Believe In It," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 1256-1295.
    41. Ho, Kelvin & Wong, Andrew, 2023. "Effect of climate-related risk on the costs of bank loans: Evidence from syndicated loan markets in emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    42. Patrick Bolton & Marcin Kacperczyk, 2021. "Global Pricing of Carbon-Transition Risk," NBER Working Papers 28510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    43. Richard B. Howarth, 1998. "An Overlapping Generations Model of Climate‐Economy Interactions," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(3), pages 575-591, September.
    44. Bartram, Söhnke M. & Hou, Kewei & Kim, Sehoon, 2022. "Real effects of climate policy: Financial constraints and spillovers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 668-696.
    45. Benjamin D. Keen & Michael R. Pakko, 2011. "Monetary Policy and Natural Disasters in a DSGE Model," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 77(4), pages 973-990, April.
    46. Ivan T. Ivanov & Marco Macchiavelli & João A. C. Santos, 2022. "Bank lending networks and the propagation of natural disasters," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 51(3), pages 903-927, September.
    47. Benjamin D. Keen & Michael R. Pakko, 2007. "Monetary policy and natural disasters in a DSGE model: how should the Fed have responded to Hurricane Katrina?," Working Papers 2007-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    48. Zhenhua Chen & Adam Rose, 2018. "Economic resilience to transportation failure: a computable general equilibrium analysis," Transportation, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 1009-1027, July.
    49. J. Farmer & Cameron Hepburn & Penny Mealy & Alexander Teytelboym, 2015. "A Third Wave in the Economics of Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 62(2), pages 329-357, October.
    50. Garth Heutel, 2012. "How Should Environmental Policy Respond to Business Cycles? Optimal Policy under Persistent Productivity Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 244-264, April.
    51. Michael Schwert, 2017. "Municipal Bond Liquidity and Default Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(4), pages 1683-1722, August.
    52. Robert Vermeulen & Edo Schets & Melanie Lohuis & Barbara Kolbl & David-Jan Jansen & Willem Heeringa, 2018. "An energy transition risk stress test for the financial system of the Netherlands," DNB Occasional Studies 1607, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    53. Stéphane Hallegatte, 2008. "An Adaptive Regional Input‐Output Model and its Application to the Assessment of the Economic Cost of Katrina," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(3), pages 779-799, June.
    54. Leach, Andrew J., 2009. "The welfare implications of climate change policy," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 151-165, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Justin Contat & Carrie Hopkins & Luis Mejia & Matthew Suandi, 2024. "When climate meets real estate: A survey of the literature," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 52(3), pages 618-659, May.
    2. Charles M. Kahn & Ahyan Panjwani & João A. C. Santos, 2024. "Insurance, Weather, and Financial Stability," Staff Reports 1107, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Dong, Xiyong & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2023. "Effect of weather and environmental attentions on financial system risks: Evidence from Chinese high- and low-carbon assets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eric Jondeau & Grégory Levieuge & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc & Gauthier Vermandel, 2023. "Environmental Subsidies to Mitigate Net-Zero Transition Costs," Working papers 910, Banque de France.
    2. Michael Barnett, 2024. "A Run on Fossil Fuel? Climate Change and Transition Risk," Papers 2410.00902, arXiv.org.
    3. Drudi, Francesco & Moench, Emanuel & Holthausen, Cornelia & Weber, Pierre-François & Ferrucci, Gianluigi & Setzer, Ralph & Adao, Bernardino & Dées, Stéphane & Alogoskoufis, Spyros & Téllez, Mar Delgad, 2021. "Climate change and monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 271, European Central Bank.
    4. Eric Jondeau & Gregory Levieuge & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc & Gauthier Vermandel, 2022. "Environmental Subsidies to Mitigate Transition Risk," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 22-45, Swiss Finance Institute.
    5. Chan, Ying Tung & Zhao, Hong, 2023. "Optimal carbon tax rates in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with a supply chain," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    6. Stefano Carattini & Garth Heutel & Givi Melkadze, 2023. "Climate Policy, Financial Frictions, and Transition Risk," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 778-794, December.
    7. Ying Tung Chan, 2019. "The Environmental Impacts and Optimal Environmental Policies of Macroeconomic Uncertainty Shocks: A Dynamic Model Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-26, September.
    8. Francesco Busato & Bruno Chiarini & Gianluigi Cisco & Maria Ferrara, 2023. "Green preferences," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 3211-3253, April.
    9. Barbara Annicchiarico & Stefano Carattini & Carolyn Fischer & Garth Heutel, 2022. "Business Cycles and Environmental Policy: A Primer," Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(1), pages 221-253.
    10. Hinterlang, Natascha & Martin, Anika & Röhe, Oke & Stähler, Nikolai & Strobel, Johannes, 2022. "Using energy and emissions taxation to finance labor tax reductions in a multi-sector economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    11. Diluiso, Francesca & Annicchiarico, Barbara & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Minx, Jan C., 2021. "Climate actions and macro-financial stability: The role of central banks," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    12. Chan, Ying Tung, 2020. "Optimal emissions tax rates under habit formation and social comparisons," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    13. Stefano Carattini & Garth Heutel & Givi Melkadze, 2023. "Climate Policy, Financial Frictions, and Transition Risk," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 778-794, December.
    14. Chen, Chuanqi & Pan, Dongyang, 2020. "The Optimal Mix of Monetary and Climate Policy," MPRA Paper 97718, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Busato, Francesco & Chiarini, Bruno & Cisco, Gianluigi & Ferrara, Maria, 2021. "Greta Thunberg effect and Business Cycle Dynamics: A DSGE model," MPRA Paper 110141, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Chan, Ying Tung & Ji, Qiang & Zhang, Dayong, 2024. "Optimal monetary policy responses to carbon and green bubbles:A two-sector DSGE analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    17. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Battles, Susan & Di Dio, Fabio & Molina, Pierfrancesco & Zoppoli, Pietro, 2017. "GHG mitigation schemes and energy policies: A model-based assessment for the Italian economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 495-509.
    18. Ying Tung Chan, 2019. "Optimal Environmental Tax Rate in an Open Economy with Labor Migration—An E-DSGE Model Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-38, September.
    19. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Diluiso, Francesca, 2019. "International transmission of the business cycle and environmental policy," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    20. Barbara Annicchiarico & Marco Carli & Francesca Diluiso, 2022. "Climate Policies, Macroprudential Regulation, and the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles," CEIS Research Paper 543, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 31 Oct 2022.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; Financial stability and risk;

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2022-43. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ryan Wolfslayer ; Keisha Fournillier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.