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Impacts of climate change in coastal systems in Europe. PESETA-Coastal Systems study

Author

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  • Julie A. Richards
  • Robert J. Nicholls

Abstract

Results of the physical impacts and adaptation cost assessment of sea-level rise for the European Union are presented for the A2 and B2 SRES socio-economic storylines and for a range of plausible sea-level rise scenarios, using data from the ECHAM4 and HADCM3 Global Climate Models (GCMs) models. In addition, to better understand the sensitivity of the results to the magnitude of sea-level rise, the full IPCC (2001) range of sea level rise predictions and scenarios of no climate change have also been modelled. These results are all derived using the global Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment (DIVA) tool for assessing regional to global coastal impacts and adaptation. Both the physical and economic impacts of sea-level rise increase with time for both the A2 and B2 storylines, especially under scenarios of high sea-level rise. Without adaptation, significant impacts and therefore damages are apparent. Significant populations are threatened with displacement by flooding and coastal erosion. An exploratory adaptation analysis using standard protection measures of dike construction and beach nourishment, where benefit-cost analysis suggests this is the optimum response, reduces these impacts significantly. While adaptation in Europe is likely to be much more diverse than these two simple options, these results demonstrate the significant benefits of protection, and more generally suggest that widespread adaptation to sustain human coastal activities would be prudent. Moreover, under these protection assumptions, coastal ecosystems are significantly reduced in area, especially under the high sea-level rise scenario and climate change raises significant challenges for wider coastal management in Europe, even if human uses in the coastal zone are protected.

Suggested Citation

  • Julie A. Richards & Robert J. Nicholls, 2009. "Impacts of climate change in coastal systems in Europe. PESETA-Coastal Systems study," JRC Research Reports JRC55390, Joint Research Centre.
  • Handle: RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc55390
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    File URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC55390
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hirte, Georg & Nitzsche, Eric & Tscharaktschiew, Stefan, 2018. "Optimal adaptation in cities," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 147-169.
    2. Bosello, Francesco & De Cian, Enrica, 2014. "Climate change, sea level rise, and coastal disasters. A review of modeling practices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 593-605.
    3. Jochen Hinkel & Robert Nicholls & Athanasios Vafeidis & Richard Tol & Thaleia Avagianou, 2010. "Assessing risk of and adaptation to sea-level rise in the European Union: an application of DIVA," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 15(7), pages 703-719, October.
    4. Juan C. Ciscar & Daniele Paci & Lucia Vergano, 2010. "Issues on the Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change," Chapters, in: Emilio Cerdá Tena & Xavier Labandeira (ed.), Climate Change Policies, chapter 3, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Juan-Carlos Ciscar & Antonio Soria & Clare M. Goodess & Ole B. Christensen & Ana Iglesias & Luis Garrote & Marta Moneo & Sonia Quiroga & Luc Feyen & Rutger Dankers & Robert Nicholls & Julie Richards &, 2009. "Climate change impacts in Europe. Final report of the PESETA research project," JRC Research Reports JRC55391, Joint Research Centre.
    6. Jose A. Marengo & Luci H. Nunes & Celia R. G. Souza & Joseph Harari & Frank Muller-Karger & Roberto Greco & Eduardo K. Hosokawa & Ernesto K. Tabuchi & Samuel B. Merrill & Catherine J. Reynolds & Mark , 2017. "A globally deployable strategy for co-development of adaptation preferences to sea-level rise: the public participation case of Santos, Brazil," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(1), pages 39-53, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; Europe; PESETA; coastal systems;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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