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Drought indices as drought predictors in the south-central USA

Author

Listed:
  • Robert V. Rohli

    (Louisiana State University)

  • Nazla Bushra

    (Louisiana State University)

  • Nina S. N. Lam

    (Louisiana State University)

  • Lei Zou

    (Louisiana State University)

  • Volodymyr Mihunov

    (Louisiana State University)

  • Margaret A. Reams

    (Louisiana State University)

  • Jennifer E. Argote

    (Louisiana State University)

Abstract

Drought is among the most insidious types of natural disasters and can have devastating economic and human health impacts. This research analyzes the relationship between two readily accessible drought indices—the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index (PHDI)—and the damage incurred by such droughts in terms of monetary loss, over the 1975–2010 time period on monthly basis, for five states in the south-central USA. Because drought damage in the Spatial Hazards Events and Losses Database for the United States (SHELDUS™) is reported at the county level, statistical downscaling techniques were used to estimate the county-level PDSI and PHDI. Correlation analysis using the downscaled indices suggests that although relatively few county–months contain drought damage reports, drought indices can be useful predictors of drought damage at the monthly temporal scale extended to 12 months and at the county-level spatial scale. The varying time lags between occurrence of drought and reporting of damage, perhaps due to varying resilience to drought intensity and duration by crop types across space, along with differing irrigation schedules and adaptation measures of the community to drought over space and time, may contribute to weakened correlations. These results present a reminder of the complexities of anticipating the effects of drought, but they contribute to the effort to improve our ability to mitigate the effects of incipient drought.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert V. Rohli & Nazla Bushra & Nina S. N. Lam & Lei Zou & Volodymyr Mihunov & Margaret A. Reams & Jennifer E. Argote, 2016. "Drought indices as drought predictors in the south-central USA," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(3), pages 1567-1582, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:83:y:2016:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-016-2376-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2376-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Adam Smith & Jessica Matthews, 2015. "Quantifying uncertainty and variable sensitivity within the US billion-dollar weather and climate disaster cost estimates," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(3), pages 1829-1851, July.
    2. Aiguo Dai, 2013. "Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(1), pages 52-58, January.
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    4. Reinhard Mechler & Laurens Bouwer, 2015. "Understanding trends and projections of disaster losses and climate change: is vulnerability the missing link?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(1), pages 23-35, November.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Omidreza Mikaili & Majid Rahimzadegan, 2022. "Investigating remote sensing indices to monitor drought impacts on a local scale (case study: Fars province, Iran)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(3), pages 2511-2529, April.
    3. Nabeel Bani Hani & Fakher J. Aukour & Mohammed I. Al-Qinna, 2022. "Investigating the Pearl Millet ( Pennisetum glaucum ) as a Climate-Smart Drought-Tolerant Crop under Jordanian Arid Environments," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-21, September.
    4. Yelin Jiang & Ranghui Wang & Qing Peng & Xiaoquan Wu & Husen Ning & Cheng Li, 2018. "The relationship between drought activity and vegetation cover in Northwest China from 1982 to 2013," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(1), pages 145-163, November.

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