IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v91y2018i2d10.1007_s11069-017-3140-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A potential predictor of multi-season droughts in Southwest China: soil moisture and its memory

Author

Listed:
  • Chujie Gao

    (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST)
    NUIST)

  • Haishan Chen

    (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST)
    NUIST)

  • Shanlei Sun

    (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST)
    NUIST)

  • Victor Ongoma

    (South Eastern Kenya University)

  • Wenjian Hua

    (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST)
    NUIST)

  • Hedi Ma

    (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST)
    NUIST)

  • Bei Xu

    (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST)
    NUIST)

  • Yang Li

    (Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory)

Abstract

During the last decade, several high intensity and long duration droughts happened in Southwest China (SWC) and resulted in tremendous socioeconomic losses. Meanwhile, it is well known that soil moisture (SM) plays a key role in land–atmosphere interaction and weather/climate prediction and is a direct drought index. Thus, a general analysis of SM is beneficial to drought research and prediction over this region. Based on the SM data of Global Land Data Assimilation System V2.0, we examined the temporal variations in SM in SWC during 1961–2012. Results show that significant soil drying trend happened in autumn accompanied by an evident abrupt change in 1991. Moreover, SM exhibits a strong and season-dependent persistence. Particularly, the autumn SM anomaly shows the strongest memory that can be sustained to the next spring. Along with the decadal shift of SM, the memory time of autumn SM can extend from 3 months before 1991 to 6 months in recent years. We further used the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at multiple time scales to identify the droughts in different seasons over SWC, and the inter-annual change patterns of autumn SM and SPEIs are generally in agreement with each other, which confirms that SM is suitable for indicating the droughts. Our results suggest that the autumn SM can be a potential predictor of persistent droughts over SWC, especially for those multi-season persistent drought events started in autumn.

Suggested Citation

  • Chujie Gao & Haishan Chen & Shanlei Sun & Victor Ongoma & Wenjian Hua & Hedi Ma & Bei Xu & Yang Li, 2018. "A potential predictor of multi-season droughts in Southwest China: soil moisture and its memory," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 91(2), pages 553-566, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:91:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-017-3140-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-3140-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-017-3140-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-017-3140-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jiajin Wang & Yaobin Meng, 2013. "An analysis of the drought in Yunnan, China, from a perspective of society drought severity," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 67(2), pages 431-458, June.
    2. Xinyu Fu & Mark Svoboda & Zhenghong Tang & Zhijun Dai & Jianjun Wu, 2013. "An overview of US state drought plans: crisis or risk management?," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 69(3), pages 1607-1627, December.
    3. Robert V. Rohli & Nazla Bushra & Nina S. N. Lam & Lei Zou & Volodymyr Mihunov & Margaret A. Reams & Jennifer E. Argote, 2016. "Drought indices as drought predictors in the south-central USA," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(3), pages 1567-1582, September.
    4. Jane Qiu, 2010. "China drought highlights future climate threats," Nature, Nature, vol. 465(7295), pages 142-143, May.
    5. X. Zhang & Y. Yamaguchi, 2014. "Characterization and evaluation of MODIS-derived Drought Severity Index (DSI) for monitoring the 2009/2010 drought over southwestern China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(3), pages 2129-2145, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Yu & Hao, Zengchao & Feng, Sifang & Zhang, Xuan & Xu, Yang & Hao, Fanghua, 2021. "Agricultural drought prediction in China based on drought propagation and large-scale drivers," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    2. Omolola M. Adisa & Muthoni Masinde & Joel O. Botai & Christina M. Botai, 2020. "Bibliometric Analysis of Methods and Tools for Drought Monitoring and Prediction in Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-22, August.
    3. Emile A. Frison & Jeremy Cherfas & Toby Hodgkin, 2011. "Agricultural Biodiversity Is Essential for a Sustainable Improvement in Food and Nutrition Security," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-16, January.
    4. Yuanhe Yu & Jinliang Wang & Feng Cheng & Huan Deng & Sheng Chen, 2020. "Drought monitoring in Yunnan Province based on a TRMM precipitation product," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(3), pages 2369-2387, December.
    5. Qun Huang & Zhandong Sun & Christian Opp & Tom Lotz & Jiahu Jiang & Xijun Lai, 2014. "Hydrological Drought at Dongting Lake: Its Detection, Characterization, and Challenges Associated With Three Gorges Dam in Central Yangtze, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(15), pages 5377-5388, December.
    6. Nazla Bushra & Robert V. Rohli & Nina S. N. Lam & Lei Zou & Rubayet Bin Mostafiz & Volodymyr Mihunov, 2019. "The relationship between the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and drought indices in the South Central United States," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 96(2), pages 791-808, March.
    7. Timo Räsänen & Jorma Koponen & Hannu Lauri & Matti Kummu, 2012. "Downstream Hydrological Impacts of Hydropower Development in the Upper Mekong Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(12), pages 3495-3513, September.
    8. Manman Zhang & Dang Luo & Yongqiang Su, 2022. "Drought monitoring and agricultural drought loss risk assessment based on multisource information fusion," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(1), pages 775-801, March.
    9. Raissa Zurli Bittencourt Bravo & Ana Paula Martins do Amaral Cunha & Adriana Leiras & Fernando Luiz Cyrino Oliveira, 2021. "A new approach for a drought composite index," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(1), pages 755-773, August.
    10. Wang, Y. & Huang, J., 2018. "Do forests relieve crop thirst in the face of drought? Empirical evidence from South China," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 276959, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Raissa Zurli Bittencourt Bravo & Adriana Leiras & Fernando Luiz Cyrino Oliveira & Ana Paula Martins do Amaral Cunha, 2023. "DRAI: a risk-based drought monitoring and alerting system in Brazil," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(1), pages 113-142, May.
    12. Araceli Martin-Candilejo & Francisco J. Martin-Carrasco & Ana Iglesias & Luis Garrote, 2023. "Heading into the Unknown? Exploring Sustainable Drought Management in the Mediterranean Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-18, December.
    13. Rengui Jiang & Jiancang Xie & Hailong He & Jungang Luo & Jiwei Zhu, 2015. "Use of four drought indices for evaluating drought characteristics under climate change in Shaanxi, China: 1951–2012," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(3), pages 2885-2903, February.
    14. Omidreza Mikaili & Majid Rahimzadegan, 2022. "Investigating remote sensing indices to monitor drought impacts on a local scale (case study: Fars province, Iran)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(3), pages 2511-2529, April.
    15. Nabeel Bani Hani & Fakher J. Aukour & Mohammed I. Al-Qinna, 2022. "Investigating the Pearl Millet ( Pennisetum glaucum ) as a Climate-Smart Drought-Tolerant Crop under Jordanian Arid Environments," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-21, September.
    16. Yelin Jiang & Ranghui Wang & Qing Peng & Xiaoquan Wu & Husen Ning & Cheng Li, 2018. "The relationship between drought activity and vegetation cover in Northwest China from 1982 to 2013," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(1), pages 145-163, November.
    17. Lu Wu & Liping Feng & Yizhuo Li & Jing Wang & Lianhai Wu, 2019. "A Yield-Related Agricultural Drought Index Reveals Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Droughts in Southwestern China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-13, January.
    18. Chris K. Y. Lo & Christopher S. Tang & Yi Zhou & Andy C. L. Yeung & Di Fan, 2018. "Environmental Incidents and the Market Value of Firms: An Empirical Investigation in the Chinese Context," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 20(3), pages 422-439, July.
    19. Wallander, Steven & Hrozencik, Aaron & Aillery, Marcel, 2022. "Irrigation Organizations: Drought Planning and Response," USDA Miscellaneous 316790, United States Department of Agriculture.
    20. Dan Yan & Mingtian Yao & Fulco Ludwig & Pavel Kabat & He Qing Huang & Ronald W. A. Hutjes & Saskia E. Werners, 2018. "Exploring Future Water Shortage for Large River Basins under Different Water Allocation Strategies," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(9), pages 3071-3086, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:91:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-017-3140-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.