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Impact indicators for caprock integrity and induced seismicity in CO 2 geosequestration: insights from uncertainty analyses

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  • Xiaochen Wei
  • Qi Li
  • Xiaying Li
  • Yankun Sun

Abstract

The geological sequestration (geosequestration) of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is a mitigation method for reducing greenhouse gas emission into the atmosphere. The security and safety of CO 2 geosequestration are strongly dependent on the mechanical stability of the caprock overlying the reservoir. Underground injection of CO 2 increases the pore pressure and thus decreases the effective stress. It may lead to caprock failure, as well as the subsequent leakage of sequestered CO 2 . In particular, geothermal exploitation and the underground disposal of hazardous liquid wastes have demonstrated a risk of induced seismicity. We performed an uncertainty analysis using a novel response surface methodology and a two-step statistical experimental design, evaluated the statistical significance of operator choices and subsurface uncertainties to caprock integrity, and quantified the moment magnitude of the induced seismicity. Furthermore, the optimal combination (i.e., the worst-case scenario) with the desired properties was forecast. A series of numerical experiments was well designed, and 130 combinations were statistically determined. Based on the results from the analysis of variance for the response surface quadratic model, the impact indicators were presented in histograms according to their significances to the Coulomb failure stress and moment magnitude of the induced seismicity. Lastly, the values of the selected independent impact indicators were predicted to obtain optimal compositions for object function of both Coulomb failure stress and moment magnitude, and the desired properties were being picked out. The optimal combinations had desirability values of 1.000, demonstrating the fitness of the selected statistical models in analyzing the experimental data. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaochen Wei & Qi Li & Xiaying Li & Yankun Sun, 2016. "Impact indicators for caprock integrity and induced seismicity in CO 2 geosequestration: insights from uncertainty analyses," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(1), pages 1-21, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:81:y:2016:i:1:p:1-21
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-2063-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Regina Nuzzo, 2014. "Scientific method: Statistical errors," Nature, Nature, vol. 506(7487), pages 150-152, February.
    2. Lan-Cui Liu & Gang Wu, 2015. "Assessment of energy supply vulnerability between China and USA," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 127-138, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mingze Liu & Guang Zhang & Guogang Gou & Bing Bai & Shaobin Hu & Xiaochun Li, 2018. "Experimental and theoretical study on the effect of unsteady flow on the fracturing pressure in hydraulic fracturing test," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 90(3), pages 1137-1151, February.

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