IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v79y2015i1p215-236.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A risk index due to natural hazards based on the expected annual loss

Author

Listed:
  • Mauro Niño
  • Miguel Jaimes
  • Eduardo Reinoso

Abstract

This study proposes a risk index (RI) to identify the potential areas at national, sub-national and local levels that may suffer losses to natural hazards, taking into account the expected physical damage to the structures. The quantitative measure of the risk is the expected annual loss obtained as a result of the formal probabilistic estimation of structural damage. To estimate RI, a computational system that takes into account the occurrence of all possible events and its exceedance rates for a given hazard and the characteristics of the local construction is employed. Although losses can be obtained for individual structures in percent, the proposed RI establishes a scale of qualitative levels: Very Low, Low, Medium, High and Very High. RI is transparent, robust and representative of the risk, and can be used as a first sound approach in order to better use resources to carry out site- and building-specific studies for the regions at the highest risk. As a case study of RI, three natural hazards (seismic, hurricane and flood) for dwellings located in areas of Mexico are shown. The benefits of this approach are two: (1) to set risk results as a standard for decision-making in fields other than financial ones, and (2) a straight use of these risk results to prioritize resources at areas (or buildings or any other asset) according to the highest or lowest risk result, in a way that may be easier to communicate to decision-makers even if they are not familiar with formal risk studies. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Mauro Niño & Miguel Jaimes & Eduardo Reinoso, 2015. "A risk index due to natural hazards based on the expected annual loss," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 79(1), pages 215-236, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:79:y:2015:i:1:p:215-236
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-1837-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-015-1837-0
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-015-1837-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. C. Velásquez & O. Cardona & M. Mora & L. Yamin & M. Carreño & A. Barbat, 2014. "Hybrid loss exceedance curve (HLEC) for disaster risk assessment," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 72(2), pages 455-479, June.
    2. David Simpson & R. Human, 2008. "Large-scale vulnerability assessments for natural hazards," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 47(2), pages 143-155, November.
    3. Russell Blong, 2003. "A New Damage Index," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 30(1), pages 1-23, September.
    4. Mauro Niño & Miguel Jaimes & Eduardo Reinoso, 2014. "Seismic-event-based methodology to obtain earthquake-induced translational landslide regional hazard maps," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 73(3), pages 1697-1713, September.
    5. Mabel Marulanda & Martha Carreño & Omar Cardona & Mario Ordaz & Alex Barbat, 2013. "Probabilistic earthquake risk assessment using CAPRA: application to the city of Barcelona, Spain," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 69(1), pages 59-84, October.
    6. Nieves Lantada & Luis Pujades & Alex Barbat, 2009. "Vulnerability index and capacity spectrum based methods for urban seismic risk evaluation. A comparison," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 51(3), pages 501-524, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Armando Aguilar-Meléndez & Lluis G. Pujades & Alex H. Barbat & Marisol Monterrubio-Velasco & Josep Puente & Nieves Lantada, 2022. "Comparative analysis of a new assessment of the seismic risk of residential buildings of two districts of Barcelona," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(3), pages 1649-1691, February.
    2. Mario Salgado-Gálvez & Daniela Zuloaga Romero & César Velásquez & Martha Carreño & Omar-Darío Cardona & Alex Barbat, 2016. "Urban seismic risk index for Medellín, Colombia, based on probabilistic loss and casualties estimations," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(3), pages 1995-2021, February.
    3. J. Oliver & X. S. Qin & O. Larsen & M. Meadows & M. Fielding, 2018. "Probabilistic flood risk analysis considering morphological dynamics and dike failure," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 91(1), pages 287-307, March.
    4. Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez & Daniela Zuloaga Romero & César A. Velásquez & Martha L. Carreño & Omar-Darío Cardona & Alex H. Barbat, 2016. "Urban seismic risk index for Medellín, Colombia, based on probabilistic loss and casualties estimations," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(3), pages 1995-2021, February.
    5. Mabel Marulanda & Omar Cardona & Miguel Mora & Alex Barbat, 2014. "Design and implementation of a voluntary collective earthquake insurance policy to cover low-income homeowners in a developing country," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(3), pages 2071-2088, December.
    6. O. Ionuş & M. Licurici & M. Pătroescu & S. Boengiu, 2015. "Assessment of flood-prone stripes within the Danube drainage area in the South-West Oltenia Development Region, Romania," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(1), pages 69-88, February.
    7. Margaret I. Rolfe & Sabrina Winona Pit & John W. McKenzie & Jo Longman & Veronica Matthews & Ross Bailie & Geoffrey G. Morgan, 2020. "Social vulnerability in a high-risk flood-affected rural region of NSW, Australia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 101(3), pages 631-650, April.
    8. Zhongkai Huang & Xingmian Deng & Chong Lei & Yixin Cheng & Chenlong Zhang & Qiangqiang Sun, 2024. "Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessment of Metro Tunnels in Soft Soils," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-24, September.
    9. Eric Tate & Susan L Cutter & Melissa Berry, 2010. "Integrated Multihazard Mapping," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 37(4), pages 646-663, August.
    10. Maurizio Pollino & Grazia Fattoruso & Luigi La Porta & Antonio Bruno Della Rocca & Valentina James, 2012. "Collaborative Open Source Geospatial Tools and Maps Supporting the Response Planning to Disastrous Earthquake Events," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-18, May.
    11. Yeudy F. Vargas-Alzate & Nieves Lantada & Ramón González-Drigo & Luis G. Pujades, 2020. "Seismic Risk Assessment Using Stochastic Nonlinear Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-21, February.
    12. Isabel Seifert & Annegret Thieken & Mirjam Merz & Dietmar Borst & Ute Werner, 2010. "Estimation of industrial and commercial asset values for hazard risk assessment," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 52(2), pages 453-479, February.
    13. H. Apel & G. Aronica & H. Kreibich & A. Thieken, 2009. "Flood risk analyses—how detailed do we need to be?," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 49(1), pages 79-98, April.
    14. Jairo Valcárcel & Miguel Mora & Omar Cardona & Lluis Pujades & Alex Barbat & Gabriel Bernal, 2013. "Methodology and applications for the benefit cost analysis of the seismic risk reduction in building portfolios at broadscale," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 69(1), pages 845-868, October.
    15. Radhikesh Prasad Nanda & Nilendu Krishna Paul & Ningthoujam Monika Chanu, 2019. "Seismic loss estimation tool as rapid survey for prioritizing buildings for disaster preparedness: case study to hospital buildings," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 95(3), pages 769-781, February.
    16. Archana Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, 2016. "Estimating the uninsured losses due to extreme weather events and implications for informal sector vulnerability: a case study of Mumbai, India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(1), pages 285-310, January.
    17. Archana Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, 2016. "Estimating the uninsured losses due to extreme weather events and implications for informal sector vulnerability: a case study of Mumbai, India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(1), pages 285-310, January.
    18. Mabel Marulanda & Martha Carreño & Omar Cardona & Mario Ordaz & Alex Barbat, 2013. "Probabilistic earthquake risk assessment using CAPRA: application to the city of Barcelona, Spain," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 69(1), pages 59-84, October.
    19. J. A. León & M. Ordaz & E. Haddad & I. F. Araújo, 2022. "Risk caused by the propagation of earthquake losses through the economy," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    20. A. Castillo & F. López-Almansa & L. Pujades, 2011. "Seismic risk analysis of urban non-engineered buildings: application to an informal settlement in Mérida, Venezuela," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 59(2), pages 891-916, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:79:y:2015:i:1:p:215-236. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.