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Probabilistic earthquake risk assessment using CAPRA: application to the city of Barcelona, Spain

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  • Mabel Marulanda
  • Martha Carreño
  • Omar Cardona
  • Mario Ordaz
  • Alex Barbat

Abstract

The risk evaluation model CAPRA (Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment) is a techno-scientific methodology and information platform, composed of tools for evaluating and communicating risk at various territorial levels. The model allows evaluating losses on exposed elements using probabilistic metrics, such as the loss exceedance curve, the expected annual loss and the probable maximum loss, useful for multi-hazard risk analyses. In this article, the process of probabilistic seismic risk analysis is described, explaining the main features of the CAPRA modules of hazard, vulnerability and risk estimation applied to the city of Barcelona, Spain. In addition, according to the physical risk results and the information on the socioeconomic indicators of the city, this article presents the holistic evaluation of seismic risk, which is a valuable result to facilitate the integrated risk management by the different stakeholders involved in risk reduction decision making. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Mabel Marulanda & Martha Carreño & Omar Cardona & Mario Ordaz & Alex Barbat, 2013. "Probabilistic earthquake risk assessment using CAPRA: application to the city of Barcelona, Spain," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 69(1), pages 59-84, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:69:y:2013:i:1:p:59-84
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-013-0685-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John D. Pollner, 2001. "Managing Catastrophic Disaster Risks Using Alternative Risk financing and Pooled Insurance Structures," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13961, December.
    2. Mabel-Cristina Marulanda & Omar Cardona & Alex Barbat, 2009. "Robustness of the holistic seismic risk evaluation in urban centers using the USRi," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 49(3), pages 501-516, June.
    3. Mr. Michael Keen & Mr. Paul K. Freeman & Mr. Muthukumara Mani, 2003. "Dealing with Increased Risk of Natural Disasters: Challenges and Options," IMF Working Papers 2003/197, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Nieves Lantada & Luis Pujades & Alex Barbat, 2009. "Vulnerability index and capacity spectrum based methods for urban seismic risk evaluation. A comparison," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 51(3), pages 501-524, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mabel Marulanda & Omar Cardona & Miguel Mora & Alex Barbat, 2014. "Design and implementation of a voluntary collective earthquake insurance policy to cover low-income homeowners in a developing country," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(3), pages 2071-2088, December.
    2. Radhikesh Prasad Nanda & Nilendu Krishna Paul & Ningthoujam Monika Chanu, 2019. "Seismic loss estimation tool as rapid survey for prioritizing buildings for disaster preparedness: case study to hospital buildings," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 95(3), pages 769-781, February.
    3. Mario Salgado-Gálvez & Daniela Zuloaga Romero & César Velásquez & Martha Carreño & Omar-Darío Cardona & Alex Barbat, 2016. "Urban seismic risk index for Medellín, Colombia, based on probabilistic loss and casualties estimations," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(3), pages 1995-2021, February.
    4. Kadriye Burcu Yavuz Kumlu & Şule Tüdeş, 2019. "Determination of earthquake-risky areas in Yalova City Center (Marmara region, Turkey) using GIS-based multicriteria decision-making techniques (analytical hierarchy process and technique for order pr," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 96(3), pages 999-1018, April.
    5. Mauro Niño & Miguel Jaimes & Eduardo Reinoso, 2015. "A risk index due to natural hazards based on the expected annual loss," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 79(1), pages 215-236, October.
    6. Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez & Daniela Zuloaga Romero & César A. Velásquez & Martha L. Carreño & Omar-Darío Cardona & Alex H. Barbat, 2016. "Urban seismic risk index for Medellín, Colombia, based on probabilistic loss and casualties estimations," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(3), pages 1995-2021, February.
    7. J. Oliver & X. S. Qin & O. Larsen & M. Meadows & M. Fielding, 2018. "Probabilistic flood risk analysis considering morphological dynamics and dike failure," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 91(1), pages 287-307, March.
    8. Armando Aguilar-Meléndez & Lluis G. Pujades & Alex H. Barbat & Marisol Monterrubio-Velasco & Josep Puente & Nieves Lantada, 2022. "Comparative analysis of a new assessment of the seismic risk of residential buildings of two districts of Barcelona," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(3), pages 1649-1691, February.
    9. Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez & Daniela Zuloaga & Sebastian Henao & Gabriel A. Bernal & Omar-Darío Cardona, 2018. "Probabilistic assessment of annual repair rates in pipelines and of direct economic losses in water and sewage networks: application to Manizales, Colombia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 93(1), pages 5-24, September.
    10. J. A. León & M. Ordaz & E. Haddad & I. F. Araújo, 2022. "Risk caused by the propagation of earthquake losses through the economy," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    11. Du, Ao & Wang, Xiaowei & Xie, Yazhou & Dong, You, 2023. "Regional seismic risk and resilience assessment: Methodological development, applicability, and future research needs – An earthquake engineering perspective," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).

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