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Urban seismic risk index for Medellín, Colombia, based on probabilistic loss and casualties estimations

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  • Mario Salgado-Gálvez
  • Daniela Zuloaga Romero
  • César Velásquez
  • Martha Carreño
  • Omar-Darío Cardona
  • Alex Barbat

Abstract

Medellín is the second largest city of Colombia with more than 2 million inhabitants according to the latest census and with more than 240,000 public and private buildings. It is located on an intermediate seismic hazard area according to the seismic zonation of Colombia although no destructive earthquakes have occurred having as a consequence low seismic risk awareness among its inhabitants. Using the results of a fully probabilistic risk assessment of the city with a building by building resolution level and considering the dynamic soil response, average annual losses by sectors as well as casualties and other direct effects are obtained and aggregated at county level. Using the holistic evaluation module of the multi-hazard risk assessment CAPRA platform, EvHo, a comprehensive assessment that considered the social fragility and lack or resilience at county level is performed making use of a set of indicators with the objective of capturing the aggravating conditions of the initial physical impact. The urban seismic risk index, USRi, is obtained at county level which is useful to communicate risk to decision-makers and stakeholders besides making easy identifying potential zones that can be problematic in terms of several dimensions of the vulnerability. This case study is an example of how a multidisciplinary research on disaster risk reduction helps to show how risk analysis can be of high relevance for decision-making processes in disaster risk management. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Salgado-Gálvez & Daniela Zuloaga Romero & César Velásquez & Martha Carreño & Omar-Darío Cardona & Alex Barbat, 2016. "Urban seismic risk index for Medellín, Colombia, based on probabilistic loss and casualties estimations," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(3), pages 1995-2021, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:80:y:2016:i:3:p:1995-2021
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-2056-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. C. Velásquez & O. Cardona & M. Mora & L. Yamin & M. Carreño & A. Barbat, 2014. "Hybrid loss exceedance curve (HLEC) for disaster risk assessment," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 72(2), pages 455-479, June.
    2. Martha-Liliana Carreño & Omar Cardona & Alex Barbat, 2007. "Urban Seismic Risk Evaluation: A Holistic Approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 40(1), pages 137-172, January.
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    5. Mabel Marulanda & Omar Cardona & Miguel Mora & Alex Barbat, 2014. "Design and implementation of a voluntary collective earthquake insurance policy to cover low-income homeowners in a developing country," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(3), pages 2071-2088, December.
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    7. Mabel Marulanda & Martha Carreño & Omar Cardona & Mario Ordaz & Alex Barbat, 2013. "Probabilistic earthquake risk assessment using CAPRA: application to the city of Barcelona, Spain," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 69(1), pages 59-84, October.
    8. Naveed Ahmad & Qaisar Ali & Helen Crowley & Rui Pinho, 2014. "Earthquake loss estimation of residential buildings in Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 73(3), pages 1889-1955, September.
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    8. Du, Ao & Wang, Xiaowei & Xie, Yazhou & Dong, You, 2023. "Regional seismic risk and resilience assessment: Methodological development, applicability, and future research needs – An earthquake engineering perspective," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).

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