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Hybrid loss exceedance curve (HLEC) for disaster risk assessment

Author

Listed:
  • C. Velásquez
  • O. Cardona
  • M. Mora
  • L. Yamin
  • M. Carreño
  • A. Barbat

Abstract

Taken into account that the natural hazard risk is a contingent liability and, therefore, a sovereign risk for national governments, it is important to assess properly the potential losses to design a suitable risk reduction, retention and transfer strategy. In this article, a disaster risk assessment methodology is proposed based on two approaches: on the one hand, the empiric estimation of losses, using information available from local disaster databases, allowing estimating losses due to small-scale events and, on the other hand, probabilistic evaluations to estimate losses for greater or even catastrophic events, for which information usually is not available due to the lack of historical data. A “hybrid” loss exceedance curve is thus determined, which combines the results of these two approaches and represents the disaster risk in a proper and complete way. This curve merges two components: the corresponding to small and moderate losses, calculated using an inductive and retrospective analysis, and the corresponding to extreme losses, calculated using a deductive and prospective analysis. Applications of this risk assessment technique are given in this article for eleven countries. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • C. Velásquez & O. Cardona & M. Mora & L. Yamin & M. Carreño & A. Barbat, 2014. "Hybrid loss exceedance curve (HLEC) for disaster risk assessment," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 72(2), pages 455-479, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:72:y:2014:i:2:p:455-479
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-013-1017-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Martha Carreño & Omar Cardona & Alex Barbat, 2007. "A disaster risk management performance index," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 41(1), pages 1-20, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ruiling Sun & Ge Gao & Zaiwu Gong & Jie Wu, 2020. "A review of risk analysis methods for natural disasters," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 100(2), pages 571-593, January.
    2. J. Oliver & X. S. Qin & O. Larsen & M. Meadows & M. Fielding, 2018. "Probabilistic flood risk analysis considering morphological dynamics and dike failure," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 91(1), pages 287-307, March.
    3. Gabriella Tocchi & Daria Ottonelli & Nicola Rebora & Maria Polese, 2023. "Multi-Risk Assessment in the Veneto Region: An Approach to Rank Seismic and Flood Risk," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-21, August.
    4. Mario Ordaz, 2015. "A simple probabilistic model to combine losses arising from the simultaneous occurrence of several hazards," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(1), pages 389-396, March.
    5. Mabel Marulanda & Omar Cardona & Miguel Mora & Alex Barbat, 2014. "Design and implementation of a voluntary collective earthquake insurance policy to cover low-income homeowners in a developing country," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(3), pages 2071-2088, December.
    6. Mario Salgado-Gálvez & Daniela Zuloaga Romero & César Velásquez & Martha Carreño & Omar-Darío Cardona & Alex Barbat, 2016. "Urban seismic risk index for Medellín, Colombia, based on probabilistic loss and casualties estimations," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(3), pages 1995-2021, February.
    7. Mauro Niño & Miguel Jaimes & Eduardo Reinoso, 2015. "A risk index due to natural hazards based on the expected annual loss," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 79(1), pages 215-236, October.
    8. Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez & Daniela Zuloaga Romero & César A. Velásquez & Martha L. Carreño & Omar-Darío Cardona & Alex H. Barbat, 2016. "Urban seismic risk index for Medellín, Colombia, based on probabilistic loss and casualties estimations," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(3), pages 1995-2021, February.

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