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Is the S-shaped curve a general law? An application to evaluate the damage resulting from water-induced disasters

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  • Minjian Chen
  • Jing Ma
  • Yajie Hu
  • Fei Zhou
  • Jinxiu Li
  • Long Yan

Abstract

Water-induced disasters are harmful and can cause drastic damage. The response to these disasters is critical, and this task continues to gain global attention. A quick and accurate assessment of the damage is vital to mitigate the effects of the water-induced disasters. This paper begins with exploring the S-shaped curve that is widely observed with many types of damage resulting from the various water-induced disasters. Following that, we propose a conceptual model using the grade of a disaster as the crucial factor and recommend a general function in the form of a hyperbolic tangent function. The damage assessment of the flood and drought events that occurred in the Yangtze River Delta was conducted to explain the processes involved in the function configuration. Flood season precipitation and soil moisture were incorporated into the flood and drought models, respectively, to simulate the functions in agricultural areas hit by drought or flood events. Comparing the calculated result and field survey shows the effectiveness of the proposed damaged estimate function. This proposed methodology can be used to quickly assess the flood and drought damage, and it can also be extended to other types of disasters. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Minjian Chen & Jing Ma & Yajie Hu & Fei Zhou & Jinxiu Li & Long Yan, 2015. "Is the S-shaped curve a general law? An application to evaluate the damage resulting from water-induced disasters," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(1), pages 497-515, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:78:y:2015:i:1:p:497-515
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-1723-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. S. Jonkman & J. Vrijling & A. Vrouwenvelder, 2008. "Methods for the estimation of loss of life due to floods: a literature review and a proposal for a new method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 46(3), pages 353-389, September.
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    1. Cui, Yi & Jiang, Shangming & Jin, Juliang & Ning, Shaowei & Feng, Ping, 2019. "Quantitative assessment of soybean drought loss sensitivity at different growth stages based on S-shaped damage curve," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 821-832.
    2. Zhi Xu & Jing Ma & Yajie Hu, 2019. "Saltwater Intrusion Function and Preliminary Application in the Yangtze River Estuary, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-19, January.
    3. Chaochao Li & Xiaotao Cheng & Na Li & Xiaohe Du & Qian Yu & Guangyuan Kan, 2016. "A Framework for Flood Risk Analysis and Benefit Assessment of Flood Control Measures in Urban Areas," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-18, August.
    4. Dong, Xuefan & Liu, Yijung & Wu, Chao & Lian, Ying, 2019. "The topology of scale-free networks with an S-shaped nonlinear growth characteristic," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 137-148.

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