IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v75y2015i3p2185-2198.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A new prediction model for mining subsidence deformation: the arc tangent function model

Author

Listed:
  • Lei Nie
  • Hongfei Wang
  • Yan Xu
  • Zechuang Li

Abstract

Ground subsidence in underground coal mining areas causes environmental damage and creates hazards on the ground surface, which is long-term, widely distributed, and can lead to large-scale geological disasters. Achieving a high-precision method to predict mining subsidence deformation is very important for assessing environmental damage and countermeasures. In this paper, based on the “S”-type settlement curves of the monitoring points in the collapsed pit and the failure mechanism of rock strata on the goaf, the arc tangent function model was proposed and applied to the Taihe coal mine in Fushun, Liaoning Province, China. Using the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm for nonlinear curve fitting of the data, the parameters of the model are obtained, and extending it in time, the prediction function will be obtained. Using different monitoring data to validate the model shows that the accuracy of the medium- and short-term forecasting is very good. With continuous updating of the monitoring data, the forecasting achieves higher accuracy and the function of dynamic track forecasting is achieved. A very high correlation coefficient was obtained (0.996) using all the available data from the monitoring point for the best-fit curve. This prediction model provides a reference for the evaluation and treatment of ground subsidence in the Taihe coal mining area. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Lei Nie & Hongfei Wang & Yan Xu & Zechuang Li, 2015. "A new prediction model for mining subsidence deformation: the arc tangent function model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(3), pages 2185-2198, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:75:y:2015:i:3:p:2185-2198
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1421-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-014-1421-z
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-014-1421-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huafeng Xu & Bin Liu & Zhigeng Fang, 2014. "New grey prediction model and its application in forecasting land subsidence in coal mine," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(2), pages 1181-1194, March.
    2. Lei Nie & Min Zhang & Heqing Jian, 2013. "Analysis of surface subsidence mechanism and regularity under the influence of seism and fault," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 66(2), pages 773-780, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xingdong Zhao & Qiankun Zhu, 2020. "Analysis of the surface subsidence induced by sublevel caving based on GPS monitoring and numerical simulation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(3), pages 3063-3083, September.
    2. Min Zhang & Yan Qiu & Chunling Li & Tao Cui & Mingxing Yang & Jun Yan & Wu Yang, 2023. "A Habitable Earth and Carbon Neutrality: Mission and Challenges Facing Resources and the Environment in China—An Overview," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-35, January.
    3. Fengkai Li & Guolin Liu & Qiuxiang Tao & Min Zhai, 2023. "Land subsidence prediction model based on its influencing factors and machine learning methods," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(3), pages 3015-3041, April.
    4. Weitao Yan & Junjie Chen & Yi Tan & Rong He & Shaoge Yan, 2022. "Surface Dynamic Damage Prediction Model of Horizontal Coal Seam Based on the Idea of Wave Lossless Propagation," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(11), pages 1-15, June.
    5. Yanhui Guo & Luo Luo & Rui Ma & Shunyin Li & Wei Zhang & Chuangye Wang, 2023. "Study on Surface Deformation and Movement Caused by Deep Continuous Mining of Steeply Inclined Ore Bodies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-23, August.
    6. Hao Li & Boyang Zhang & Haibo Bai & Jianjun Wu & Qingbin Meng & Ning Xiao & Feng Li & Guangming Wu, 2018. "Surface Water Resource Protection in a Mining Process under Varying Strata Thickness—A Case Study of Buliangou Coal Mine, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-16, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dayang Xuan & Jialin Xu, 2014. "Grout injection into bed separation to control surface subsidence during longwall mining under villages: case study of Liudian coal mine, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 73(2), pages 883-906, September.
    2. Jingjie Liu & Min Xia, 2023. "Influencing Factors Analysis and Optimization of Land Use Allocation: Combining MAS with MOPSO Procedure," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-17, January.
    3. Zhili Zuo & Jinhua Cheng & Haixiang Guo & Yonglin Li, 2021. "Comparative Study on Relative Fossil Energy Carrying Capacity in China and the United States," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-15, May.
    4. Shukun Zhang & Peng Jiang & Lu Lu & Shuai Wang & Haohao Wang, 2022. "Evaluation of Compressive Geophysical Prospecting Method for the Identification of the Abandoned Goaf at the Tengzhou Section of China’s Mu Shi Expressway," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-15, October.
    5. Bin Zhang & Jiacheng Ye & Zhongjian Zhang & Liang Xu & Nengxiong Xu, 2019. "A Comprehensive Method for Subsidence Prediction on Two-Seam Longwall Mining," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-18, August.
    6. Shabnam Mehrnoor & Maryam Robati & Mir Masoud Kheirkhah Zarkesh & Forough Farsad & Shahram Baikpour, 2023. "Land subsidence hazard assessment based on novel hybrid approach: BWM, weighted overlay index (WOI), and support vector machine (SVM)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(3), pages 1997-2030, February.
    7. Natnael Nigussie Goshu & Surafel Luleseged Tilahun, 2016. "Grey theory to predict Ethiopian foreign currency exchange rate," International Journal of Business Forecasting and Marketing Intelligence, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(2), pages 95-116.
    8. Che-Jung Chang & Jan-Yan Lin & Peng Jin, 2017. "A grey modeling procedure based on the data smoothing index for short-term manufacturing demand forecast," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 409-422, September.
    9. Sai Hu & Longqian Chen & Long Li & Ting Zhang & Lina Yuan & Liang Cheng & Jia Wang & Mingxin Wen, 2020. "Simulation of Land Use Change and Ecosystem Service Value Dynamics under Ecological Constraints in Anhui Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-21, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:75:y:2015:i:3:p:2185-2198. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.