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A Method for Predicting the Surface Subsidence Duration and the Maximum Subsidence Velocity

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Listed:
  • Yanjun Zhang

    (State Key Laboratory of Water Resource Protection and Utilization in Coal Mining, Beijing 102209, China
    College of Geoscience and Surveying Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology-Beijing, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Fei Wang

    (State Key Laboratory of Water Resource Protection and Utilization in Coal Mining, Beijing 102209, China)

  • Yueguan Yan

    (College of Geoscience and Surveying Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology-Beijing, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Yuanhao Zhu

    (College of Geoscience and Surveying Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology-Beijing, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Linda Dai

    (College of Geoscience and Surveying Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology-Beijing, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Jiayuan Kong

    (College of Geoscience and Surveying Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology-Beijing, Beijing 100083, China)

Abstract

The surface subsidence duration and the maximum subsidence velocity are critical indicators to evaluate the stability and severity of surface damage. Precisely predicting them is important for guiding engineering design and protecting ground infrastructure. Traditional manual measurement methods are time-consuming and laborious, and the existing empirical formulas have low accuracy and poor applicability. Therefore, a new prediction method was established in this paper. Measured data from 30 mining areas were used for verification. The results show that the predicted surface subsidence duration is basically consistent with the measured value. The standard deviation of the two is 61 d, and the relative standard deviation is 6.6%. The predicted surface maximum subsidence velocity is basically consistent with the measured value. The standard deviation of the two is 10.0 mm/d, and the relative standard deviation is 1.6%. The surface subsidence duration and the maximum subsidence velocity are positively correlated with the coal seam thickness, negatively and positively correlated with the mining speed, and positively and negatively correlated with the mining depth. The mining speed and mining depth have the same sensitivity to the two indicators, and the coal seam thickness is more sensitive to the surface subsidence duration. Furthermore, construction within the subsidence basin may further contribute to surface subsidence. Therefore, land reuse measures should be implemented following the predicted surface subsidence duration in this paper. This study addresses the knowledge gap in this field by deriving theoretical formulas for surface subsidence duration and maximum subsidence velocity. In the absence of sufficient measured data, engineers can calculate predicted values in combination with geological mining conditions and develop appropriate mining plans based on the extent of surface subsidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Yanjun Zhang & Fei Wang & Yueguan Yan & Yuanhao Zhu & Linda Dai & Jiayuan Kong, 2024. "A Method for Predicting the Surface Subsidence Duration and the Maximum Subsidence Velocity," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-25, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:13:y:2024:i:12:p:2016-:d:1529940
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lei Nie & Hongfei Wang & Yan Xu & Zechuang Li, 2015. "A new prediction model for mining subsidence deformation: the arc tangent function model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(3), pages 2185-2198, February.
    2. Jan Białek & Marek Wesołowski & Ryszard Mielimąka & Paweł Sikora, 2020. "Deformations of Mining Terrain Caused by the Partial Exploitation in the Aspect of Measurements and Numerical Modeling," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-12, June.
    3. C. Loupasakis & V. Angelitsa & D. Rozos & N. Spanou, 2014. "Mining geohazards—land subsidence caused by the dewatering of opencast coal mines: The case study of the Amyntaio coal mine, Florina, Greece," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 70(1), pages 675-691, January.
    4. Mateusz Dudek & Anton Sroka & Krzysztof Tajduś & Rafał Misa & Dawid Mrocheń, 2022. "Assessment and Duration of the Surface Subsidence after the End of Mining Operations," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-16, November.
    5. Yaokun Fu & Yongzheng Wu & Xiwen Yin, 2023. "A Study on the Movement and Deformation Law of Overlying Strata and the Self-Healing Characteristics of Ground Fissures in Non-Pillar Mining in the Aeolian Sand Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-30, October.
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