IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v72y2014i2p1093-1110.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling destructive earthquake casualties based on a comparative study for Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • S. Turkan
  • G. Özel

Abstract

The statistical modeling of destructive earthquakes is an indispensable tool for extracting information for prevention and risk reduction casualties after destructive earthquakes in a seismic region. The linear regression (LR) model can reveal the relation between casualty rate and related covariates based on earthquake catalog. However, if some covariates affect the casualty rate parametrically and some of them nonparametrically, the LR model may entail serious bias and loss of power when estimating or making inference about the effect of parameters. We suggest that semi-parametric beta regression (SBR), semi-parametric additive regression (SAR), and beta regression (BR) models could provide a more suitable description than the LR model to analyze the observed casualties after destructive earthquakes. We support this argument using destructive earthquakes occurred in Turkey between 1900 and 2012 having surface wave magnitudes five or more. The LR, SAR, BR, and SBR models are compared within the context of this data. The data strongly support that the SBR and SAR models can lead to more precise results than the BR and LR models. Furthermore, the SBR is the best model for the earthquake data since the beta distribution provides a flexible model that can be used to analyze the data involving proportions or rates. The results from this model suggest that the casualty rate depends on energy, damaged buildings, and the number of aftershocks of a destructive earthquake. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • S. Turkan & G. Özel, 2014. "Modeling destructive earthquake casualties based on a comparative study for Turkey," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 72(2), pages 1093-1110, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:72:y:2014:i:2:p:1093-1110
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1059-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-014-1059-x
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-014-1059-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Silvia Ferrari & Francisco Cribari-Neto, 2004. "Beta Regression for Modelling Rates and Proportions," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(7), pages 799-815.
    2. Max Wyss, 2005. "Human Losses Expected in Himalayan Earthquakes," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 34(3), pages 305-314, March.
    3. Shunichi Koshimura & Toshitaka Katada & Harold Mofjeld & Yoshiaki Kawata, 2006. "A method for estimating casualties due to the tsunami inundation flow," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 39(2), pages 265-274, October.
    4. José Badal & Miguel Vázquez-prada & Álvaro González, 2005. "Preliminary Quantitative Assessment of Earthquake Casualties and Damages," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 34(3), pages 353-374, March.
    5. Paolino, Philip, 2001. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Models with Beta-Distributed Dependent Variables," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(4), pages 325-346, January.
    6. Simas, Alexandre B. & Barreto-Souza, Wagner & Rocha, Andréa V., 2010. "Improved estimators for a general class of beta regression models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 348-366, February.
    7. R. A. Rigby & D. M. Stasinopoulos, 2005. "Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 54(3), pages 507-554, June.
    8. Stasinopoulos, D. Mikis & Rigby, Robert A., 2007. "Generalized Additive Models for Location Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) in R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 23(i07).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wanpeng Ding & Zhijian Wu & Beilei Zhan & Jian Liu & Jun Bi, 2023. "Analysis of seismic damage of a highway bridge during the 2021 Ms 7.4 earthquake in Maduo County, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(3), pages 2419-2434, July.
    2. Muhammet Gul & Ali Fuat Guneri, 2016. "An artificial neural network-based earthquake casualty estimation model for Istanbul city," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(3), pages 2163-2178, December.
    3. Xuejun Jiang & Yunxian Li & Aijun Yang & Ruowei Zhou, 2020. "Bayesian semiparametric quantile regression modeling for estimating earthquake fatality risk," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 2085-2103, May.
    4. Tongyan Zheng & Lei Li & Chong Xu & Yuandong Huang, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Analysis of Earthquake Distribution and Associated Losses in Chinese Mainland from 1949 to 2021," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-15, May.
    5. Chaoxu Xia & Gaozhong Nie & Huayue Li & Xiwei Fan & Wenhua Qi, 2023. "A composite database of casualty-inducing earthquakes in mainland China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(3), pages 3321-3351, April.
    6. Manhao Luo & Shuangyun Peng & Yanbo Cao & Jing Liu & Bangmei Huang, 2023. "Earthquake fatality prediction based on hybrid feature importance assessment: a case study in Yunnan Province, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(3), pages 3353-3376, April.
    7. Xia Chaoxu & Nie Gaozhong & Fan Xiwei & Li Huayue & Zhou Junxue & Zeng Xun, 2022. "A new model for the quantitative assessment of earthquake casualties based on the correction of anti-lethal level," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(2), pages 1199-1226, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lucio Masserini & Matilde Bini & Monica Pratesi, 2017. "Effectiveness of non-selective evaluation test scores for predicting first-year performance in university career: a zero-inflated beta regression approach," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 693-708, March.
    2. Ospina, Raydonal & Ferrari, Silvia L.P., 2012. "A general class of zero-or-one inflated beta regression models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1609-1623.
    3. Diego Ramos Canterle & Fábio Mariano Bayer, 2019. "Variable dispersion beta regressions with parametric link functions," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 60(5), pages 1541-1567, October.
    4. Cristine Rauber & Francisco Cribari-Neto & Fábio M. Bayer, 2020. "Improved testing inferences for beta regressions with parametric mean link function," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 104(4), pages 687-717, December.
    5. Ana María Martínez-Rodríguez & Antonio Conde-Sánchez & María José Olmo-Jiménez, 2019. "A new approach to truncated regression for count data," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 103(4), pages 503-526, December.
    6. Pablo Mitnik & Sunyoung Baek, 2013. "The Kumaraswamy distribution: median-dispersion re-parameterizations for regression modeling and simulation-based estimation," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 177-192, February.
    7. Edilberto Cepeda-Cuervo & Jorge Alberto Achcar & Liliana Garrido Lopera, 2014. "Bivariate beta regression models: joint modeling of the mean, dispersion and association parameters," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 677-687, March.
    8. Phillip Li, 2018. "Efficient MCMC estimation of inflated beta regression models," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 127-158, March.
    9. Pilar A. Rivera & Diego I. Gallardo & Osvaldo Venegas & Emilio Gómez-Déniz & Héctor W. Gómez, 2024. "Reparameterized Scale Mixture of Rayleigh Distribution Regression Models with Varying Precision," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-16, June.
    10. repec:jss:jstsof:34:i02 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Yingchun Li & Zhongliang Wu & Yizhe Zhao, 2011. "Estimating the number of casualties in earthquakes from early field reports and improving the estimate with time," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 56(3), pages 699-708, March.
    12. Wagner Hugo Bonat & Paulo Justiniano Ribeiro & Walmes Marques Zeviani, 2015. "Likelihood analysis for a class of beta mixed models," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 252-266, February.
    13. Gambetti, Paolo & Gauthier, Geneviève & Vrins, Frédéric, 2019. "Recovery rates: Uncertainty certainly matters," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 371-383.
    14. Amon, Julian & Hornik, Kurt, 2022. "Is it all bafflegab? – Linguistic and meta characteristics of research articles in prestigious economics journals," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2).
    15. Yixuan Wang & Jianzhu Li & Ping Feng & Rong Hu, 2015. "A Time-Dependent Drought Index for Non-Stationary Precipitation Series," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(15), pages 5631-5647, December.
    16. Panayi, Efstathios & Peters, Gareth W. & Danielsson, Jon & Zigrand, Jean-Pierre, 2018. "Designating market maker behaviour in limit order book markets," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 20-44.
    17. Gauss Cordeiro & Josemar Rodrigues & Mário Castro, 2012. "The exponential COM-Poisson distribution," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 653-664, August.
    18. Muhammad Suhail Rizwan & Asifa Obaid & Dawood Ashraf, 2017. "The Impact of Corporate Social Responsibility on Default Risk: Empirical evidence from US Firms," Business & Economic Review, Institute of Management Sciences, Peshawar, Pakistan, vol. 9(3), pages 36-70, September.
    19. Christian Kleiber & Achim Zeileis, 2016. "Visualizing Count Data Regressions Using Rootograms," The American Statistician, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 70(3), pages 296-303, July.
    20. Silvia Balia, 2007. "Reporting expected longevity and smoking: evidence from the SHARE," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 07/10, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    21. Baccini, Leonardo & Urpelainen, Johannes, 2012. "Legislative fractionalization and partisan shifts to the left increase the volatility of public energy R&D expenditures," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 45571, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:72:y:2014:i:2:p:1093-1110. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.