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Human Losses Expected in Himalayan Earthquakes

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  • Max Wyss

Abstract

Quantitative estimates of potential losses that may be caused by future great earthquakes along the Himalaya suggest that as many as 150,000 people may die, 300,000 may be injured and typically 3,000 settlements will be affected in a single event. Scenario results used here vary and are based on ruptures of 150 km segments of the plate boundary at seven positions, where sufficient elastic energy is believed to be stored for magnitude eight earthquakes. The method of calculating these results was calibrated, using the 17 disastrous Indian earthquakes, which have occurred since 1980. About 50 settlements in the region are considered most at risk because in each more than 2000 fatalities may occur. Copyright Springer 2005

Suggested Citation

  • Max Wyss, 2005. "Human Losses Expected in Himalayan Earthquakes," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 34(3), pages 305-314, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:34:y:2005:i:3:p:305-314
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-004-2073-1
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hanxi Jia & Junqi Lin & Jinlong Liu, 2019. "An Earthquake Fatalities Assessment Method Based on Feature Importance with Deep Learning and Random Forest Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-21, May.
    2. A. Joshi, 2007. "Inversion of seismic intensity data for the determination of three-dimensional attenuation structures in the central gap region of Himalayas," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 43(1), pages 1-22, October.
    3. S. Turkan & G. Özel, 2014. "Modeling destructive earthquake casualties based on a comparative study for Turkey," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 72(2), pages 1093-1110, June.
    4. Jin‐Feng Wang & Lian‐Fa Li, 2008. "Improving Tsunami Warning Systems with Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System Input," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(6), pages 1653-1668, December.
    5. Max Wyss, 2017. "Four loss estimates for the Gorkha M7.8 earthquake, April 25, 2015, before and after it occurred," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 86(1), pages 141-150, March.
    6. Tom R. Robinson, 2020. "Scenario ensemble modelling of possible future earthquake impacts in Bhutan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(3), pages 3457-3478, September.
    7. Amod Dixit & Ryuichi Yatabe & Ranjan Dahal & Netra Bhandary, 2013. "Initiatives for earthquake disaster risk management in the Kathmandu Valley," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 69(1), pages 631-654, October.
    8. Hemchandra Chaulagain & Hugo Rodrigues & Vitor Silva & Enrico Spacone & Humberto Varum, 2015. "Seismic risk assessment and hazard mapping in Nepal," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(1), pages 583-602, August.
    9. Naveed Ahmad & Qaisar Ali & Helen Crowley & Rui Pinho, 2014. "Earthquake loss estimation of residential buildings in Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 73(3), pages 1889-1955, September.
    10. Yingchun Li & Zhongliang Wu & Yizhe Zhao, 2011. "Estimating the number of casualties in earthquakes from early field reports and improving the estimate with time," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 56(3), pages 699-708, March.

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