IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v65y2013i3p1831-1847.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Resilience and brittleness in the ALERTA RIO system: a field study about the decision-making of forecasters

Author

Listed:
  • Giovanni Dolif
  • Andre Engelbrecht
  • Alessandro Jatobá
  • Antônio da Silva
  • José Gomes
  • Marcos Borges
  • Carlos Nobre
  • Paulo Carvalho

Abstract

Natural disasters, particularly those triggered by heavy rainfall, may cause major damage and death. However, if an accurate early warning is issued, the damage can be mitigated. In Latin America and Brazil, characteristics of socioeconomic development often lead to a disorderly growth of cities and, consequently, occupation and irregular construction in risk areas. Therefore, forecasts of heavy rainfall, as well as preventative and mitigatory actions based on meteorological data/alerts, are essential to saving lives and minimizing material loss. An event that would have benefited from such actions is that which occurred in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro in January 2011, when over 800 people lost their lives. This work describes the first research initiative on resilience engineering domain in systems to forecast heavy rains in Rio de Janeiro. The results indicate important sources of brittleness in the system that supports the work of meteorologists, mainly related to the technical and organizational framework, and suggests that the main source of resilience in dealing with critical situations is the tacit knowledge of experts. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanni Dolif & Andre Engelbrecht & Alessandro Jatobá & Antônio da Silva & José Gomes & Marcos Borges & Carlos Nobre & Paulo Carvalho, 2013. "Resilience and brittleness in the ALERTA RIO system: a field study about the decision-making of forecasters," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(3), pages 1831-1847, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:65:y:2013:i:3:p:1831-1847
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-012-0448-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-012-0448-2
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-012-0448-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sajjad Ahmad & Slobodan Simonovic, 2006. "An Intelligent Decision Support System for Management of Floods," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 20(3), pages 391-410, June.
    2. Gomes, Jose O. & Woods, David D. & Carvalho, Paulo V.R. & Huber, Gilbert J. & Borges, Marcos R.S., 2009. "Resilience and brittleness in the offshore helicopter transportation system: The identification of constraints and sacrifice decisions in pilots’ work," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 311-319.
    3. Hans Romang & Massimiliano Zappa & Nadine Hilker & Matthias Gerber & François Dufour & Valérie Frede & Dominique Bérod & Matthias Oplatka & Christoph Hegg & Jakob Rhyner, 2011. "IFKIS-Hydro: an early warning and information system for floods and debris flows," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 56(2), pages 509-527, February.
    4. Alexandre Badoux & Christoph Graf & Jakob Rhyner & Richard Kuntner & Brian McArdell, 2009. "A debris-flow alarm system for the Alpine Illgraben catchment: design and performance," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 49(3), pages 517-539, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dacy Câmara Lobosco & Paulo Victor Rodrigues Carvalho, 2023. "Transforming Sensemaking and Perceptions on Meteorological Data to Inform Emergency Decision-Making," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 469-502, April.
    2. Paulo Victor Rodrigues Carvalho & Cláudio Henrique Grecco & Armando Martins Souza & Gilbert Jacob Huber & Jose Orlando Gomes, 2016. "A fuzzy model to assess disaster risk reduction maturity level based on the Hyogo Framework for Action," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(1), pages 309-326, August.
    3. Shuangling Wang & Wanshun Zhang & Fajin Chen, 2019. "Simulation of Drainage Capacity in a Coastal Nuclear Power Plant under Extreme Rainfall and Tropical Storm," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-18, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hans Romang & Massimiliano Zappa & Nadine Hilker & Matthias Gerber & François Dufour & Valérie Frede & Dominique Bérod & Matthias Oplatka & Christoph Hegg & Jakob Rhyner, 2011. "IFKIS-Hydro: an early warning and information system for floods and debris flows," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 56(2), pages 509-527, February.
    2. Paresh Shirsath & Anil Singh, 2010. "A Comparative Study of Daily Pan Evaporation Estimation Using ANN, Regression and Climate Based Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(8), pages 1571-1581, June.
    3. de Carvalho, Paulo Victor Rodrigues, 2011. "The use of Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) in a mid-air collision to understand some characteristics of the air traffic management system resilience," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(11), pages 1482-1498.
    4. Luca Schilirò & Gian Marco Marmoni & Matteo Fiorucci & Massimo Pecci & Gabriele Scarascia Mugnozza, 2023. "Preliminary insights from hydrological field monitoring for the evaluation of landslide triggering conditions over large areas," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(2), pages 1401-1426, September.
    5. Arash Malekian & Ali Azarnivand, 2016. "Application of Integrated Shannon’s Entropy and VIKOR Techniques in Prioritization of Flood Risk in the Shemshak Watershed, Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(1), pages 409-425, January.
    6. Guangyang Wu & Lanhai Li & Sajjad Ahmad & Xi Chen & Xiangliang Pan, 2013. "A Dynamic Model for Vulnerability Assessment of Regional Water Resources in Arid Areas: A Case Study of Bayingolin, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(8), pages 3085-3101, June.
    7. S. Mosquera-Machado & Sajjad Ahmad, 2007. "Flood hazard assessment of Atrato River in Colombia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(3), pages 591-609, March.
    8. V. Alarcon & D. Johnson & W. McAnally & J. Zwaag & D. Irby & J. Cartwright, 2014. "Nested Hydrodynamic Modeling of a Coastal River Applying Dynamic-Coupling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(10), pages 3227-3240, August.
    9. Maryam Ghashghaie & Safar Marofi & Hossein Marofi, 2014. "Using System Dynamics Method to Determine the Effect of Water Demand Priorities on Downstream Flow," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(14), pages 5055-5072, November.
    10. Novak, Jeremy & Farr-Wharton, Ben & Brunetto, Yvonne & Shacklock, Kate & Brown, Kerry, 2017. "Safety outcomes for engineering asset management organizations: Old problem with new solutions?," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 67-73.
    11. Sättele, Martina & Bründl, Michael & Straub, Daniel, 2015. "Reliability and effectiveness of early warning systems for natural hazards: Concept and application to debris flow warning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 192-202.
    12. Javier Guerrero & Taufiqul Alam & Ahmed Mahmoud & Kim D. Jones & Andrew Ernest, 2020. "Decision-Support System for LID Footprint Planning and Urban Runoff Mitigation in the Lower Rio Grande Valley of South Texas," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-18, April.
    13. James H. Lambert & Jeffrey M. Keisler & William E. Wheeler & Zachary A. Collier & Igor Linkov, 2013. "Multiscale approach to the security of hardware supply chains for energy systems," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 326-334, September.
    14. Bergström, Johan & van Winsen, Roel & Henriqson, Eder, 2015. "On the rationale of resilience in the domain of safety: A literature review," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 131-141.
    15. Sajjad Ahmad & Dinesh Prashar, 2010. "Evaluating Municipal Water Conservation Policies Using a Dynamic Simulation Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(13), pages 3371-3395, October.
    16. Arnold Kogelnig & Johannes Hübl & Emma Suriñach & Ignasi Vilajosana & Brian McArdell, 2014. "Infrasound produced by debris flow: propagation and frequency content evolution," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 70(3), pages 1713-1733, February.
    17. Mendes, Pietro A.S. & Hall, Jeremy & Matos, Stelvia & Silvestre, Bruno, 2014. "Reforming Brazil׳s offshore oil and gas safety regulatory framework: Lessons from Norway, the United Kingdom and the United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 443-453.
    18. Bukhary, Saria & Ahmad, Sajjad & Batista, Jacimaria, 2018. "Analyzing land and water requirements for solar deployment in the Southwestern United States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 3288-3305.
    19. Xinglong Wang & Shangfei Miao & Junqing Tang, 2020. "Vulnerability and Resilience Analysis of the Air Traffic Control Sector Network in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-18, May.
    20. Shrestha, Eleeja & Ahmad, Sajjad & Johnson, Walter & Batista, Jacimaria R., 2012. "The carbon footprint of water management policy options," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 201-212.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:65:y:2013:i:3:p:1831-1847. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.