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Probabilistic assessment of wildfire hazard and municipal watershed exposure

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  • Joe Scott
  • Don Helmbrecht
  • Matthew Thompson
  • David Calkin
  • Kate Marcille

Abstract

The occurrence of wildfires within municipal watersheds can result in significant impacts to water quality and ultimately human health and safety. In this paper, we illustrate the application of geospatial analysis and burn probability modeling to assess the exposure of municipal watersheds to wildfire. Our assessment of wildfire exposure consists of two primary components: (1) wildfire hazard, which we characterize with burn probability, fireline intensity, and a composite index, and (2) geospatial intersection of watershed polygons with spatially resolved wildfire hazard metrics. This effort enhances investigation into spatial patterns of fire occurrence and behavior and enables quantitative comparisons of exposure across watersheds on the basis of a novel, integrated measure of wildfire hazard. As a case study, we consider the municipal watersheds located on the Beaverhead-Deerlodge National Forest (BDNF) in Montana, United States. We present simulation results to highlight exposure across watersheds and generally demonstrate vast differences in fire likelihood, fire behavior, and expected area burned among the analyzed municipal watersheds. We describe how this information can be incorporated into risk-based strategic fuels management planning and across the broader wildfire management spectrum. To conclude, we discuss strengths and limitations of our approach and offer potential future expansions. Copyright US Government 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Joe Scott & Don Helmbrecht & Matthew Thompson & David Calkin & Kate Marcille, 2012. "Probabilistic assessment of wildfire hazard and municipal watershed exposure," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 64(1), pages 707-728, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:64:y:2012:i:1:p:707-728
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-012-0265-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Diandong Ren & Rong Fu & Lance Leslie & Robert Dickinson, 2011. "Modeling the mudslide aftermath of the 2007 Southern California Wildfires," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 57(2), pages 327-343, May.
    2. Gaither, Cassandra Johnson & Poudyal, Neelam C. & Goodrick, Scott & Bowker, J.M. & Malone, Sparkle & Gan, Jianbang, 2011. "Wildland fire risk and social vulnerability in the Southeastern United States: An exploratory spatial data analysis approach," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 24-36, January.
    3. M. Parise & S. Cannon, 2012. "Wildfire impacts on the processes that generate debris flows in burned watersheds," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 61(1), pages 217-227, March.
    4. Keane, Robert E. & Karau, Eva, 2010. "Evaluating the ecological benefits of wildfire by integrating fire and ecosystem simulation models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(8), pages 1162-1172.
    5. Philip E. Dennison & Thomas J. Cova & Max A. Mortiz, 2007. "WUIVAC: a wildland-urban interface evacuation trigger model applied in strategic wildfire scenarios," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 41(1), pages 181-199, April.
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    1. Alcasena, Fermín J. & Salis, Michele & Nauslar, Nicholas J. & Aguinaga, A. Eduardo & Vega-García, Cristina, 2016. "Quantifying economic losses from wildfires in black pine afforestations of northern Spain," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 153-167.
    2. Alex W. Dye & John B. Kim & Andrew McEvoy & Fang Fang & Karin L. Riley, 2021. "Evaluating rural Pacific Northwest towns for wildfire evacuation vulnerability," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(1), pages 911-935, May.
    3. Vladimir Marković & Imre Nagy & Andras Sik & Kinga Perge & Peter Laszlo & Maria Papathoma-Köhle & Catrin Promper & Thomas Glade, 2016. "Assessing drought and drought-related wildfire risk in Kanjiza, Serbia: the SEERISK methodology," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(2), pages 709-726, January.
    4. Jessica R. Haas & David E. Calkin & Matthew P. Thompson, 2015. "Wildfire Risk Transmission in the Colorado Front Range, USA," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(2), pages 226-240, February.
    5. Hand, Michael S. & Thompson, Matthew P. & Calkin, David E., 2016. "Examining heterogeneity and wildfire management expenditures using spatially and temporally descriptive data," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 80-102.
    6. Khakzad, Nima, 2019. "Modeling wildfire spread in wildland-industrial interfaces using dynamic Bayesian network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 165-176.
    7. Thompson, Matthew P. & Haas, Jessica R. & Finney, Mark A. & Calkin, David E. & Hand, Michael S. & Browne, Mark J. & Halek, Martin & Short, Karen C. & Grenfell, Isaac C., 2015. "Development and application of a probabilistic method for wildfire suppression cost modeling," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 249-258.

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