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An approach for estimating the largest probable tsunami from far-field subduction zone earthquakes

Author

Listed:
  • Nikos Kalligeris

    (University of Southern California)

  • Luis Montoya

    (University of Southern California)

  • Aykut Ayca

    (University of Southern California)

  • Patrick Lynett

    (University of Southern California)

Abstract

Following the recent unexpected earthquake events of 2004 and 2011, it can be cautiously extrapolated that all major subduction zones bearing the capacity to produce mega-earthquake events will eventually do so given enough time, irrespective of the lack of such in the relatively short historical record. This notion has led to an effort of assigning maximum earthquake magnitudes to all major subduction zones, either based on geological constraints or based on size–frequency relations, or a combination of both. In this study, we utilize the proposed maximum magnitudes to assess tsunami hazard in Central California in the very long return periods. We also assessed tsunami hazard following an alternative methodology to calculate maximum magnitudes, which uses scaling relations for subduction zone earthquakes and maximum fault rupture scenarios found in literature. A sensitivity analysis is performed for Central California that is applicable to any coastal site in the Pacific Rim and can readily provide a strong indication for which subduction zones beam the most energy toward a study area. The maximum earthquake scenarios are then narrowed down to a few candidates, for which the initial conditions are examined in more detail. The chosen worst-case scenarios for Central California stem from the Alaska–Aleutian subduction zone that beams more energy and generates the biggest amplitude waves toward the study area. The largest tsunami scenario produces maximum free surface elevations of 15 m and run-up heights greater than 20 m.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikos Kalligeris & Luis Montoya & Aykut Ayca & Patrick Lynett, 2017. "An approach for estimating the largest probable tsunami from far-field subduction zone earthquakes," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 89(1), pages 233-253, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:89:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-017-2961-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2961-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert J. Geller, 2011. "Shake-up time for Japanese seismology," Nature, Nature, vol. 472(7344), pages 407-409, April.
    2. Susan L. Bilek & Thorne Lay, 1999. "Rigidity variations with depth along interplate megathrust faults in subduction zones," Nature, Nature, vol. 400(6743), pages 443-446, July.
    3. Eric Geist & Tom Parsons, 2014. "Undersampling power-law size distributions: effect on the assessment of extreme natural hazards," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 72(2), pages 565-595, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tina Dura & Andra J. Garner & Robert Weiss & Robert E. Kopp & Simon E. Engelhart & Robert C. Witter & Richard W. Briggs & Charles S. Mueller & Alan R. Nelson & Benjamin P. Horton, 2021. "Changing impacts of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone tsunamis in California under future sea-level rise," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.

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