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Damage risk assessment of breakwaters under tsunami attack

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  • Ayşen Ergin
  • Can Balas

Abstract

Turkey was struck by two major events on 17 August and 12 November 1999, named Izmit (M w = 7.4) and Düzce (M w = 7.2) earthquakes, respectively. Rubble mound breakwaters in Izmit Bay experienced little damage, as forecasted by the new risk assessment model in which tsunami occurrence risk was included in the damage estimations. In order to determine the occurrence probability of structural damage under design conditions, including the environmental loading parameters of tsunami and storm waves, tidal range and storm surge, the Conditional Expections Monte Carlo simulation was applied in the risk assessment model developed in this study for the Esenköy Fishery Harbour, Turkey. A tsunami was not the key design parameter when compared to storm waves for the main breakwater of the harbour, however, in places with great seismic activity, the tsunami risk should be important depending on the occurrence probability and magnitude of the tsunami. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2006

Suggested Citation

  • Ayşen Ergin & Can Balas, 2006. "Damage risk assessment of breakwaters under tsunami attack," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 39(2), pages 231-243, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:39:y:2006:i:2:p:231-243
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-006-0025-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ka Chi Lam & Goran Runeson, 1999. "Modelling financial decisions in construction firms," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(5), pages 589-602.
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    Cited by:

    1. Xiaohua Bao & Bin Ye & Guanlin Ye & Feng Zhang, 2016. "Co-seismic and post-seismic behavior of a wall type breakwater on a natural ground composed of liquefiable layer," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(3), pages 1799-1819, September.
    2. Ana Cruz & Elisabeth Krausmann & Giovanni Franchello, 2011. "Analysis of tsunami impact scenarios at an oil refinery," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 58(1), pages 141-162, July.
    3. Tuğçe Nagihan Arslan Kaya & Erol Sarı & M. Namık Çağatay & Mehmet Ali Kurt & Taylan Kösesakal & Önder Kılıç & Dursun Acar, 2023. "The effects of the 1999 Gölcük earthquake (Mw 7.4) on trace element contamination of core sediments from İzmit Gulf, Turkey," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(1), pages 1189-1208, March.

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