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Trends in landslide occurrence in Nepal

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Listed:
  • David Petley
  • Gareth Hearn
  • Andrew Hart
  • Nicholas Rosser
  • Stuart Dunning
  • Katie Oven
  • Wishart Mitchell

Abstract

Nepal is a mountainous, less developed kingdom that straddles the boundary between the Indian and Himalayan tectonic plates. In Nepal, landslides represent a major constraint on development, causing high levels of economic loss and substantial numbers of fatalities each year. There is a general consensus that the impacts of landslides in countries such as Nepal are increasing with time, but until now there has been little or no quantitative data to support this view, or to explain the causes of the increases. In this paper, a database of landslide fatalities in Nepal has been compiled and analysed for the period 1978–2005. The database suggests that there is a high level of variability in the occurrence of landslides from year to year, but that the overall trend is upward. Analyses of the trends in the data suggest that there is a cyclicity in the occurrence of landslide fatalities that strongly mirrors the cyclicity observed in the SW (summer) monsoon in South Asia. Perhaps surprisingly the relationship is inverse, but this is explained through an inverse relationship between monsoon strength and the amount of precipitation in the Hill District areas of Nepal. It is also clear that in recent years the number of fatalities has increased dramatically over and above the effects of the monsoon cycle. Three explanations are explored for this: land-use change, the effects of the ongoing civil war in Nepal, and road building. It is concluded that a major component of the generally upward trend in landslide impact probably results from the rural road-building programme, and its attendant changes to physical and natural systems. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, Inc. 2007

Suggested Citation

  • David Petley & Gareth Hearn & Andrew Hart & Nicholas Rosser & Stuart Dunning & Katie Oven & Wishart Mitchell, 2007. "Trends in landslide occurrence in Nepal," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 43(1), pages 23-44, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:43:y:2007:i:1:p:23-44
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-006-9100-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Allen Hittelman & Patricia Lockridge & Lowell Whiteside & James Lander, 2001. "Interpretive Pitfalls in Historical Hazards Data," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 23(2), pages 315-338, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Anup Neupane & Kabi Raj Paudyal, 2021. "Lithological Control on Landslide in the Siwalik Section of the Lakhandehi Khola Watershed of Sarlahi District, South-Eastern Nepal," Journal of Development Innovations, KarmaQuest International, vol. 5(2), pages 44-65, December.
    2. Thomas Stanley & Dalia B. Kirschbaum, 2017. "A heuristic approach to global landslide susceptibility mapping," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 87(1), pages 145-164, May.
    3. Joshua N. Jones & Sarah J. Boulton & Martin Stokes & Georgina L. Bennett & Michael R. Z. Whitworth, 2021. "30-year record of Himalaya mass-wasting reveals landscape perturbations by extreme events," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-15, December.
    4. Chelsea Dandridge & Thomas A. Stanley & Dalia B. Kirschbaum & Venkataraman Lakshmi, 2023. "Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Global Landslide Reporting Using a Decade of the Global Landslide Catalog," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-22, February.
    5. Pantha, Bhoj Raj & Yatabe, Ryuichi & Bhandary, Netra Prakash, 2010. "GIS-based highway maintenance prioritization model: an integrated approach for highway maintenance in Nepal mountains," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 426-433.
    6. G. Sakkas & I. Misailidis & N. Sakellariou & V. Kouskouna & G. Kaviris, 2016. "Modeling landslide susceptibility in Greece: a weighted linear combination approach using analytic hierarchical process, validated with spatial and statistical analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(3), pages 1873-1904, December.
    7. Dalia Kirschbaum & Robert Adler & Yang Hong & Stephanie Hill & Arthur Lerner-Lam, 2010. "A global landslide catalog for hazard applications: method, results, and limitations," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 52(3), pages 561-575, March.
    8. Olga Petrucci & Paola Salvati & Luigi Aceto & Cinzia Bianchi & Angela Aurora Pasqua & Mauro Rossi & Fausto Guzzetti, 2017. "The Vulnerability of People to Damaging Hydrogeological Events in the Calabria Region (Southern Italy)," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-28, December.
    9. Valentina Acuña & Francisca Roldán & Manuel Tironi & Leila Juzam, 2021. "The Geo-Social Model: A Transdisciplinary Approach to Flow-Type Landslide Analysis and Prevention," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-40, February.
    10. Alberto Lanzavecchia & Maria Palumbo & Bharat Singh Thapa, 2021. "Climate Change And Microfinance: A Wake-Up Call For Policy Makers," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0268, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    11. Bilquis Shah & M. Sultan Bhat & Akhtar Alam & Hilal Ahmad Sheikh & Noureen Ali, 2022. "Developing landslide hazard scenario using the historical events for the Kashmir Himalaya," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(3), pages 3763-3785, December.
    12. Purna Bahadur Thapa & Saurav Lamichhane & Khagendra Prasad Joshi & Aayoush Raj Regmi & Divya Bhattarai & Hari Adhikari, 2023. "Landslide Susceptibility Assessment in Nepal’s Chure Region: A Geospatial Analysis," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-20, December.
    13. Randell, Heather & Jiang, Chengsheng & Liang, Xin-Zhong & Murtugudde, Raghu & Sapkota, Amir, 2021. "Food insecurity and compound environmental shocks in Nepal: Implications for a changing climate," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    14. Derly Gómez & Edwin F. García & Edier Aristizábal, 2023. "Spatial and temporal landslide distributions using global and open landslide databases," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(1), pages 25-55, May.
    15. Turner, Graham M. & Dunlop, Michael & Candy, Seona, 2016. "The impacts of expansion and degradation on Australian cropping yields—An integrated historical perspective," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 22-37.
    16. Fanyu Zhang & Jianbing Peng & Xiaowei Huang & Hengxing Lan, 2021. "Hazard assessment and mitigation of non-seismically fatal landslides in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(1), pages 785-804, March.

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