The real-time needs of emergency managers for tropical cyclone storm tide forecasting: results of a participatory stakeholder engagement process

Natural hazard forecasting products and associated decision support systems provide emergency managers with key information in real-time situations for making life-critical decisions on evacuation orders, deployment of response resources and public information campaigns. A stakeholder engagement strategy was used to investigate potential improvements to storm tide forecasting and decision support systems during tropical cyclone events for the case study site of Queensland, Australia. The requirements of the end-users of the system were identified through a comprehensive survey of local government disaster management staff. The survey assessed their use of the current system, soliciting suggestions for improvements and identifying ‘lessons learnt’ from recent extreme events. Analysis of the survey responses highlights issues with and opportunities for improvement to storm tide forecasting products, including improving spatial resolution and visualisation of warning information and improving the complexity of communication of uncertainty. In particular, the key dilemma between forecast uncertainty and the long timelines required for effective evacuation was highlighted. The survey responses and analysis present a unique insight into stakeholder requirements and will enable user-driven development of a future warning system rather than a forecast-driven product. Broader recommendations for improvement to the storm tide emergency management process derived from the survey include continuous improvement in the accuracy of tropical cyclone forecasting and improving the capacity of both disaster managers and the community to reduce response times to storm tide threat through education and long-term planning decisions. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015