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Streamflow Variation under Climate Conditions Based on a Soil and Water Assessment Tool Model: A Case Study of the Bailong River Basin

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  • Shuangying Li

    (School of Geographical Sciences, Hebei Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Ecological Construction, Hebei Technology Innovation Center for Remote Sensing Identification of Environmental Change, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang 050024, China
    MOE Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental Systems, College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China)

  • Yanyan Zhou

    (School of Geographical Sciences, Hebei Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Ecological Construction, Hebei Technology Innovation Center for Remote Sensing Identification of Environmental Change, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang 050024, China)

  • Dongxia Yue

    (MOE Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental Systems, College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China)

  • Yan Zhao

    (School of Earth Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China)

Abstract

We coupled the global climate models (GCMs) from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and Future Land Use Simulation model (FLUS) to evaluate land use change in the Bailong River Basin (BRB) under three shared socioeconomic pathway and representative concentration pathway scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP5–8.5). Additionally, we used calibrated soil and water assessment tools (SWATs) to evaluate the streamflow in the BRB from 2008 to 2100 under the combined influence of climate and land use changes. The results indicate that (1) under the SSP126-EP scenario, forests have been well preserved, and there has been an increase in the combined area of forests and water bodies. The SSP245-ND scenario has a similar reduction pattern in agricultural land as SSP126-EP, with relatively good grassland preservation and a moderate expansion rate in built-up land. In contrast, the SSP585-EG scenario features a rapid expansion of built-up land, converting a significant amount of farmland and grassland into built-up land. (2) From 2021 to 2100, the annual average flow increases under all three scenarios, and the streamflow change is most significant under SSP5–8.5. (3) Compared to the baseline period, the monthly runoff increases, with the most significant increase occurring during the summer months (June to August). This study offers a thorough assessment of potential future changes in streamflow. Its findings are expected to be applied in the future to improve the management of water resources at a local level.

Suggested Citation

  • Shuangying Li & Yanyan Zhou & Dongxia Yue & Yan Zhao, 2024. "Streamflow Variation under Climate Conditions Based on a Soil and Water Assessment Tool Model: A Case Study of the Bailong River Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-20, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:10:p:3901-:d:1389654
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Qigen Lin & Ying Wang & Thomas Glade & Jiahui Zhang & Yue Zhang, 2020. "Assessing the spatiotemporal impact of climate change on event rainfall characteristics influencing landslide occurrences based on multiple GCM projections in China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 761-779, September.
    2. Jian Fang & Feng Kong & Jiayi Fang & Lin Zhao, 2018. "Observed changes in hydrological extremes and flood disaster in Yangtze River Basin: spatial–temporal variability and climate change impacts," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 93(1), pages 89-107, August.
    3. Xinmeng Shan & Jie Yin & Jun Wang, 2022. "Risk assessment of shanghai extreme flooding under the land use change scenario," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(2), pages 1039-1060, January.
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    Keywords

    CMIP6; SWAT; land use; streamflow; Bailong River Basin;
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