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Debris-flow Indicator for an early warning system in the Aosta valley region

Author

Listed:
  • Michel Ponziani

    (Functional Centre of Aosta Valley, Department of Civil Protection)

  • Paolo Pogliotti

    (ARPA Valle d’Aosta)

  • Hervé Stevenin

    (Functional Centre of Aosta Valley, Department of Civil Protection)

  • Sara Maria Ratto

    (Functional Centre of Aosta Valley, Department of Civil Protection)

Abstract

Aosta Valley, an Alpine region in north-western Italy, has an early warning system (EWS) that issues hydrogeological alerts based on hydrological modelling and rainfall thresholds that identify the possibility of shallow landslides being triggered in different areas of the region. The high headwater catchments are characterized by the presence of permafrost and glacial sediments, and they are frequently prone to debris flows. The summer debris flows are initiated by short-duration, high-intensity rainstorms, which are associated with high meteorological uncertainty; therefore, they are not always detected by the early warning system of shallow landslides. In this study, the hydro-meteorological and permafrost conditions related to the debris-flow events from 2013 to 2018 are investigated in order to determine the variables affecting the triggering of debris flows. Debris-Flow Indicator (DFI), an early warning system specific for debris flows, was developed using recorded air temperatures, thunderstorm alerts and forecast rainfall. Two alert levels of the DFI were defined by two thresholds (S1 and S2) of the freezing level determined from performance metrics. The performance of the DFI was then studied with a back-analysis from 2013 to 2019, using observed air temperatures and forecast rainfalls. This analysis showed that the experimental implementation of the DFI in the EWS of the Aosta Valley region resulted in detecting most of the events with some false alerts (for the lower threshold, S1) or detecting only major events, but without generating false alerts (for the higher threshold, S2). Consequently, the DFI can be applied for issuing debris-flow alerts for large areas in mountain regions based only on meteorological data and forecast.

Suggested Citation

  • Michel Ponziani & Paolo Pogliotti & Hervé Stevenin & Sara Maria Ratto, 2020. "Debris-flow Indicator for an early warning system in the Aosta valley region," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(2), pages 1819-1839, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:104:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-020-04249-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04249-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. W. Haeberli & Cheng Guodong & A. P. Gorbunov & S. A. Harris, 1993. "Mountain permafrost and climatic change," Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(2), pages 165-174, April.
    2. Alexandre Badoux & Christoph Graf & Jakob Rhyner & Richard Kuntner & Brian McArdell, 2009. "A debris-flow alarm system for the Alpine Illgraben catchment: design and performance," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 49(3), pages 517-539, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. M. Ponziani & D. Ponziani & A. Giorgi & H. Stevenin & S. M. Ratto, 2023. "The use of machine learning techniques for a predictive model of debris flows triggered by short intense rainfall," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(1), pages 143-162, May.

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