IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v104y2020i2d10.1007_s11069-020-04249-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Debris-flow Indicator for an early warning system in the Aosta valley region

Author

Listed:
  • Michel Ponziani

    (Functional Centre of Aosta Valley, Department of Civil Protection)

  • Paolo Pogliotti

    (ARPA Valle d’Aosta)

  • Hervé Stevenin

    (Functional Centre of Aosta Valley, Department of Civil Protection)

  • Sara Maria Ratto

    (Functional Centre of Aosta Valley, Department of Civil Protection)

Abstract

Aosta Valley, an Alpine region in north-western Italy, has an early warning system (EWS) that issues hydrogeological alerts based on hydrological modelling and rainfall thresholds that identify the possibility of shallow landslides being triggered in different areas of the region. The high headwater catchments are characterized by the presence of permafrost and glacial sediments, and they are frequently prone to debris flows. The summer debris flows are initiated by short-duration, high-intensity rainstorms, which are associated with high meteorological uncertainty; therefore, they are not always detected by the early warning system of shallow landslides. In this study, the hydro-meteorological and permafrost conditions related to the debris-flow events from 2013 to 2018 are investigated in order to determine the variables affecting the triggering of debris flows. Debris-Flow Indicator (DFI), an early warning system specific for debris flows, was developed using recorded air temperatures, thunderstorm alerts and forecast rainfall. Two alert levels of the DFI were defined by two thresholds (S1 and S2) of the freezing level determined from performance metrics. The performance of the DFI was then studied with a back-analysis from 2013 to 2019, using observed air temperatures and forecast rainfalls. This analysis showed that the experimental implementation of the DFI in the EWS of the Aosta Valley region resulted in detecting most of the events with some false alerts (for the lower threshold, S1) or detecting only major events, but without generating false alerts (for the higher threshold, S2). Consequently, the DFI can be applied for issuing debris-flow alerts for large areas in mountain regions based only on meteorological data and forecast.

Suggested Citation

  • Michel Ponziani & Paolo Pogliotti & Hervé Stevenin & Sara Maria Ratto, 2020. "Debris-flow Indicator for an early warning system in the Aosta valley region," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(2), pages 1819-1839, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:104:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-020-04249-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04249-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-020-04249-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-020-04249-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. W. Haeberli & Cheng Guodong & A. P. Gorbunov & S. A. Harris, 1993. "Mountain permafrost and climatic change," Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(2), pages 165-174, April.
    2. Alexandre Badoux & Christoph Graf & Jakob Rhyner & Richard Kuntner & Brian McArdell, 2009. "A debris-flow alarm system for the Alpine Illgraben catchment: design and performance," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 49(3), pages 517-539, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. M. Ponziani & D. Ponziani & A. Giorgi & H. Stevenin & S. M. Ratto, 2023. "The use of machine learning techniques for a predictive model of debris flows triggered by short intense rainfall," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(1), pages 143-162, May.
    2. Timur Ersöz & Kyoka Haneda & Yutaka Gonda, 2024. "The role of volcanic ash thickness on the hydraulic conductivity of the ground and the initiation of debris flows," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(12), pages 10969-11007, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Luca Schilirò & Gian Marco Marmoni & Matteo Fiorucci & Massimo Pecci & Gabriele Scarascia Mugnozza, 2023. "Preliminary insights from hydrological field monitoring for the evaluation of landslide triggering conditions over large areas," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(2), pages 1401-1426, September.
    2. Arash Malekian & Ali Azarnivand, 2016. "Application of Integrated Shannon’s Entropy and VIKOR Techniques in Prioritization of Flood Risk in the Shemshak Watershed, Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(1), pages 409-425, January.
    3. Sättele, Martina & Bründl, Michael & Straub, Daniel, 2015. "Reliability and effectiveness of early warning systems for natural hazards: Concept and application to debris flow warning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 192-202.
    4. Hans Romang & Massimiliano Zappa & Nadine Hilker & Matthias Gerber & François Dufour & Valérie Frede & Dominique Bérod & Matthias Oplatka & Christoph Hegg & Jakob Rhyner, 2011. "IFKIS-Hydro: an early warning and information system for floods and debris flows," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 56(2), pages 509-527, February.
    5. Arnold Kogelnig & Johannes Hübl & Emma Suriñach & Ignasi Vilajosana & Brian McArdell, 2014. "Infrasound produced by debris flow: propagation and frequency content evolution," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 70(3), pages 1713-1733, February.
    6. Giovanni Dolif & Andre Engelbrecht & Alessandro Jatobá & Antônio da Silva & José Gomes & Marcos Borges & Carlos Nobre & Paulo Carvalho, 2013. "Resilience and brittleness in the ALERTA RIO system: a field study about the decision-making of forecasters," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(3), pages 1831-1847, February.
    7. Han-Chung Yang & Cheng-Wu Chen, 2012. "Potential hazard analysis from the viewpoint of flow measurement in large open-channel junctions," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 61(2), pages 803-813, March.
    8. F. Comiti & L. Marchi & P. Macconi & M. Arattano & G. Bertoldi & M. Borga & F. Brardinoni & M. Cavalli & V. D’Agostino & D. Penna & J. Theule, 2014. "A new monitoring station for debris flows in the European Alps: first observations in the Gadria basin," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 73(3), pages 1175-1198, September.
    9. Monia Molinari & Massimiliano Cannata & Claudia Meisina, 2014. "r.massmov: an open-source landslide model for dynamic early warning systems," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 70(2), pages 1153-1179, January.
    10. P. Santi & K. Hewitt & D. VanDine & E. Barillas Cruz, 2011. "Debris-flow impact, vulnerability, and response," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 56(1), pages 371-402, January.
    11. Arvind Chandra Pandey & Tirthankar Ghosh & Bikash Ranjan Parida & Chandra Shekhar Dwivedi & Reet Kamal Tiwari, 2022. "Modeling Permafrost Distribution Using Geoinformatics in the Alaknanda Valley, Uttarakhand, India," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-19, November.
    12. Arash Malekian & Ali Azarnivand, 2016. "Application of Integrated Shannon’s Entropy and VIKOR Techniques in Prioritization of Flood Risk in the Shemshak Watershed, Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(1), pages 409-425, January.
    13. Julian Stolz & Heidi Elisabeth Megerle, 2022. "Geotrails as a Medium for Education and Geotourism: Recommendations for Quality Improvement Based on the Results of a Research Project in the Swabian Alb UNESCO Global Geopark," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-37, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:104:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-020-04249-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.