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Time to leave: an analysis of travel times during the approach and landfall of Hurricane Irma

Author

Listed:
  • David Marasco

    (Clemson University)

  • Pamela Murray-Tuite

    (Clemson University)

  • Seth Guikema

    (University of Michigan)

  • Tom Logan

    (University of Michigan)

Abstract

Hurricane Irma caused widespread evacuation activity across Florida and some of its neighboring states in September of 2017. The researchers gathered estimated travel times from the Google Distance Matrix API over about a month to identify and analyze evacuation periods on roads in Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina during this time. Travel time data were mathematically adjusted to show more realistic estimations. Both sets of travel times were then graphed, with the assumption that elevated travel times prior to and during hurricane landfall were indicative of evacuation activity. The study generally corroborated the well-established daytime evacuation preference. However, not all evacuation periods followed the daytime travel preference, and at least one nighttime evacuation may have been caused by flooding. In another case, later elevated travel coincided with significant power loss. Finally, the Florida data suggest that most of the evacuation traffic departed before local jurisdictions’ recommended evacuation start times.

Suggested Citation

  • David Marasco & Pamela Murray-Tuite & Seth Guikema & Tom Logan, 2020. "Time to leave: an analysis of travel times during the approach and landfall of Hurricane Irma," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(2), pages 2459-2487, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:103:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-020-04093-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04093-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Xuwei Chen & John Meaker & F. Zhan, 2006. "Agent-Based Modeling and Analysis of Hurricane Evacuation Procedures for the Florida Keys," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 38(3), pages 321-338, July.
    2. Rebecca R. Thompson & Dana Rose Garfin & Roxane Cohen Silver, 2017. "Evacuation from Natural Disasters: A Systematic Review of the Literature," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(4), pages 812-839, April.
    3. Michael K. Lindell & Ronald W. Perry, 2012. "The Protective Action Decision Model: Theoretical Modifications and Additional Evidence," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(4), pages 616-632, April.
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