Mass evacuation planning for disasters management: A household evacuation route choice behavior analysis

This paper presents a multi-methodological approach to analyzing household evacuation route choice behaviors and the related decision-making for mass evacuation planning in disaster management. Specifically, the proposed multi-methodological approach integrates a syncretic risk perception conceptual model with a household-based group utility evolution model. The dynamics of household evacuation route choice are explored in two stages, namely the individual utility initiation and accommodation. The unique feature of the proposed approach is that it links individual risk perception, survival psychology, and group behavioral dynamics together to characterize household decision-making about choosing the evacuation routes. An empirical study coupled with experiments is conducted to help validate the proposed household evacuation route choice behavior model. Through various designed disaster scenarios, the applicability and strengths of the proposed model for mass evacuation planning and management are demonstrated. Particularly, the mean relative prediction errors of the proposed model with respect to household-based evacuation route switching probability and path flow splits are 3.79% and 6.88%, respectively, all within an acceptable range of ±10 %. This demonstrates that the proposed model and analytical results align closely with household choice behavior.