IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jotrge/v118y2024ics0966692324001340.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating pre-impact and post-impact evacuation behaviors – An empirical study of hurricane Ida in coastal Louisiana and Mississippi

Author

Listed:
  • Shen, Jiayun
  • Murray-Tuite, Pamela
  • Wernstedt, Kris
  • Guikema, Seth

Abstract

Evacuation after hurricane impacts appear (post-impact evacuation) has been underemphasized in empirical evacuation studies. This study uses well-examined factors for pre-impact evacuation and novel factors for post-impact evacuation in a sequential logit model for pre- and post-impact evacuation choices. Results show that the evacuation warning is the only factor that affected both pre-impact and post-impact evacuations. Demographics and housing characteristics are significant factors for pre-impact evacuation but not for post-impact evacuation, while residential damages and durations of utility outages are significant situational factors for post-impact evacuation. The durations of water and power outages had additive effects on the probability of evacuating after hurricane impact. Based on the results, we argue that the conventional assumption that sheltered-in-place residents will remain in the affected area, and the restoration planning and assistance generated with that premise will not be aligned with the demand of residents facing inhabitable living situations with damaged residences and prolonged utility outages. Agencies should consider extending the evacuation planning time horizon for storm events likely to induce severe damages and outages and prepare for evacuation during disrupted conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Shen, Jiayun & Murray-Tuite, Pamela & Wernstedt, Kris & Guikema, Seth, 2024. "Estimating pre-impact and post-impact evacuation behaviors – An empirical study of hurricane Ida in coastal Louisiana and Mississippi," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:118:y:2024:i:c:s0966692324001340
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2024.103925
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692324001340
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2024.103925?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joanne M. Nigg & John Barnshaw & Manuel R. Torres, 2006. "Hurricane Katrina and the Flooding of New Orleans: Emergent Issues in Sheltering and Temporary Housing," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 604(1), pages 113-128, March.
    2. Saudamini Das, 2019. "Evaluating climate change adaptation through evacuation decisions: a case study of cyclone management in India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 152(2), pages 291-305, January.
    3. Laura Kuhl & Paul Kirshen & Matthias Ruth & Ellen Douglas, 2014. "Evacuation as a climate adaptation strategy for environmental justice communities," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 493-504, December.
    4. Jeffrey K. Lazo & Ann Bostrom & Rebecca E. Morss & Julie L. Demuth & Heather Lazrus, 2015. "Factors Affecting Hurricane Evacuation Intentions," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(10), pages 1837-1857, October.
    5. Maarten L. Buis, 2017. "Not All Transitions Are Equal: The Relationship Between Effects on Passing Steps in a Sequential Process and Effects on the Final Outcome," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 46(3), pages 649-680, August.
    6. Sisi Meng & Pallab Mozumder, 2021. "Hurricane Sandy: Damages, Disruptions and Pathways to Recovery," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 223-247, July.
    7. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    8. Daisuke Nagakura & Masahito Kobayashi, 2009. "Testing The Sequential Logit Model Against The Nested Logit Model," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 345-361, September.
    9. Jennifer S Dargin & Ali Mostafavi, 2020. "Human-centric infrastructure resilience: Uncovering well-being risk disparity due to infrastructure disruptions in disasters," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(6), pages 1-29, June.
    10. Rebecca R. Thompson & Dana Rose Garfin & Roxane Cohen Silver, 2017. "Evacuation from Natural Disasters: A Systematic Review of the Literature," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(4), pages 812-839, April.
    11. John C. Whitehead & Bob Edwards & Marieke Van Willigen & John R. Maiolo & Kenneth Wilson & Kevin T. Smith, 2000. "“Heading for Higher Ground: Factors Affecting Real and Hypothetical Hurricane Evacuation Behavior,”," Working Papers 0006, East Carolina University, Department of Economics.
    12. Stanley Smith & Chris McCarty, 2009. "Fleeing the storm(s): an examination of evacuation behavior during florida’s 2004 hurricane season," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 46(1), pages 127-145, February.
    13. Lindell, Michael K., 2008. "EMBLEM2: An empirically based large scale evacuation time estimate model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 140-154, January.
    14. Kerstin Zander & Lisa Petheram & Stephen Garnett, 2013. "Stay or leave? Potential climate change adaptation strategies among Aboriginal people in coastal communities in northern Australia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 67(2), pages 591-609, June.
    15. Anne M. van Valkengoed & Linda Steg, 2019. "Meta-analyses of factors motivating climate change adaptation behaviour," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(2), pages 158-163, February.
    16. Adam Pel & Michiel Bliemer & Serge Hoogendoorn, 2012. "A review on travel behaviour modelling in dynamic traffic simulation models for evacuations," Transportation, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 97-123, January.
    17. Michael K. Lindell & Ronald W. Perry, 2012. "The Protective Action Decision Model: Theoretical Modifications and Additional Evidence," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(4), pages 616-632, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ibraheem M. Karaye & Jennifer A. Horney & David P. Retchless & Ashley D. Ross, 2019. "Determinants of Hurricane Evacuation from a Large Representative Sample of the U.S. Gulf Coast," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-10, November.
    2. Chen Qing & Shili Guo & Xin Deng & Wei Wang & Jiahao Song & Dingde Xu, 2022. "Stay in Risk Area: Place Attachment, Efficacy Beliefs and Risk Coping," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(4), pages 1-19, February.
    3. Alexa Tanner & Ryan Reynolds, 2020. "The near-miss of a tsunami and an emergency evacuation: the post-exposure effects on future emergency preparedness and evacuation intentions," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(2), pages 1679-1693, November.
    4. Rambha, Tarun & Nozick, Linda K. & Davidson, Rachel, 2021. "Modeling hurricane evacuation behavior using a dynamic discrete choice framework," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 75-100.
    5. Anyidoho, Prosper K. & Davidson, Rachel A. & Rambha, Tarun & Nozick, Linda K., 2022. "Prediction of population behavior in hurricane evacuations," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 200-221.
    6. David V. Pynadath & Bistra Dilkina & David C. Jeong & Richard S. John & Stacy C. Marsella & Chirag Merchant & Lynn C. Miller & Stephen J. Read, 2023. "Disaster world," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 84-117, March.
    7. Dingde Xu & Zhuolin Yong & Xin Deng & Yi Liu & Kai Huang & Wenfeng Zhou & Zhixing Ma, 2019. "Financial Preparation, Disaster Experience, and Disaster Risk Perception of Rural Households in Earthquake-Stricken Areas: Evidence From the Wenchuan and Lushan Earthquakes in China’s Sichuan Province," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-17, September.
    8. Ma. Bernadeth B. Lim & Hector R. Lim & Mongkut Piantanakulchai & Francis Aldrine Uy, 2016. "A household-level flood evacuation decision model in Quezon City, Philippines," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(3), pages 1539-1561, February.
    9. Stephen D. Wong & Jacquelyn C. Broader & Joan L. Walker & Susan A. Shaheen, 2023. "Understanding California wildfire evacuee behavior and joint choice making," Transportation, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1165-1211, August.
    10. Amy Cardinal Christianson & Tara K. McGee, 2019. "Wildfire evacuation experiences of band members of Whitefish Lake First Nation 459, Alberta, Canada," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 98(1), pages 9-29, August.
    11. Pallab Mozumder & William F. Vásquez, 2018. "Understanding Hurricane Evacuation Decisions Under Contingent Scenarios: A Stated Preference Approach," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 71(2), pages 407-425, October.
    12. Shengnan Wu & Yu Lei & Wen Jin, 2022. "An Interdisciplinary Approach to Quantify the Human Disaster Risk Perception and Its Influence on the Population at Risk: A Case Study of Longchi Town, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-15, December.
    13. Eva D. Regnier & Cameron A. MacKenzie, 2019. "The Hurricane Decision Simulator: A Tool for Marine Forces in New Orleans to Practice Operations Management in Advance of a Hurricane," Service Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(1), pages 103-120, January.
    14. Adam Pel & Michiel Bliemer & Serge Hoogendoorn, 2012. "A review on travel behaviour modelling in dynamic traffic simulation models for evacuations," Transportation, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 97-123, January.
    15. Yulei Song & Xuedong Yan, 2016. "A Method for Formulizing Disaster Evacuation Demand Curves Based on SI Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-21, October.
    16. Dingde Xu & Wenfeng Zhou & Xin Deng & Zhixing Ma & Zhuolin Yong & Cheng Qin, 2020. "Information credibility, disaster risk perception and evacuation willingness of rural households in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(3), pages 2865-2882, September.
    17. Dean Kyne & William Donner, 2018. "Kyne–Donner Model of Authority’s Recommendation and Hurricane Evacuation Decisions: A Study of Hypothetical Hurricane Event in the Rio Grande Valley, Texas," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 37(6), pages 897-922, December.
    18. Junji Urata & Adam J. Pel, 2018. "People's Risk Recognition Preceding Evacuation and Its Role in Demand Modeling and Planning," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(5), pages 889-905, May.
    19. Tsegaye Ginbo & Helena Hansson, 2023. "Intra-household risk perceptions and climate change adaptation in sub-Saharan Africa," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 50(3), pages 1039-1063.
    20. Sheu, Jiuh-Biing, 2024. "Mass evacuation planning for disasters management: A household evacuation route choice behavior analysis," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:118:y:2024:i:c:s0966692324001340. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-transport-geography .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.