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Reconstruction of a flash flood event using a 2D hydrodynamic model under spatial and temporal variability of storm

Author

Listed:
  • Vasilis Bellos

    (National Technical University of Athens)

  • Ino Papageorgaki

    (National Technical University of Athens)

  • Ioannis Kourtis

    (National Technical University of Athens)

  • Harris Vangelis

    (National Technical University of Athens)

  • Ioannis Kalogiros

    (National Observatory of Athens)

  • George Tsakiris

    (National Technical University of Athens)

Abstract

In this paper, the catastrophic flash flood event which occurred in the western part of Attica (Greece) in November 2017 is reconstructed. The flood event hit the town of Mandra, causing 24 fatalities and huge damages in the properties and the infrastructure. The flood hydrograph was derived using the two-dimensional hydrodynamic model FLOW-R2D. Attention was drawn on the uncertainties of the model output due to the uncertainty of the estimated parameters such as infiltration, friction and the uncertainty of input data. Due to the computational burden related to the model, a global sensitivity analysis based on Morris method was performed. Then, a Monte Carlo-based uncertainty analysis was performed on the two most influential factors. It was concluded that even the results of the physically based hydrodynamic models are characterised by uncertainties. However, the capability of the hydrodynamic models to describe in detail the dynamics of the overland flow is the main advantage of these models against the conventional hydrological models. It is concluded that the rational use of physically based models for analysing complex storm phenomena with high variable spatial and temporal distribution can lead to a more accurate range of magnitudes of flood peak.

Suggested Citation

  • Vasilis Bellos & Ino Papageorgaki & Ioannis Kourtis & Harris Vangelis & Ioannis Kalogiros & George Tsakiris, 2020. "Reconstruction of a flash flood event using a 2D hydrodynamic model under spatial and temporal variability of storm," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 101(3), pages 711-726, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:101:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-020-03891-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-03891-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hriday Mani Kalita, 2016. "A New Total Variation Diminishing Predictor Corrector Approach for Two-Dimensional Shallow Water Flow," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(4), pages 1481-1497, March.
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    6. Vasilis Bellos & George Tsakiris, 2015. "Comparing Various Methods of Building Representation for 2D Flood Modelling In Built-Up Areas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(2), pages 379-397, January.
    7. George Tsakiris & Vasilis Bellos, 2014. "A Numerical Model for Two-Dimensional Flood Routing in Complex Terrains," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(5), pages 1277-1291, March.
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