IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/minecn/v37y2024i2d10.1007_s13563-022-00355-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is there a copper super-cycle?

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher L. Gilbert

    (Johns Hopkins University SAIS Europe)

Abstract

It has been argued that the copper price exhibits “super-cycles” with periodicities of 30–60 years. Estimates of these super-cycles are typically generated by the bandpass filter. These filtered results are better interpreted as irregular episodic waves. The cyclical interpretation relies on an arbitrary separation between the cycle and an implicitly defined smooth trend. Analysis using the unobserved components model shows the price trend to be stochastic, not smooth. There is some evidence for short and poorly defined cycles but at best weak evidence for a long copper super-cycle. This finding is supported by examination of the price spectrum and generalizes to other non-ferrous metals.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher L. Gilbert, 2024. "Is there a copper super-cycle?," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 37(2), pages 359-380, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:minecn:v:37:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s13563-022-00355-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s13563-022-00355-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13563-022-00355-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s13563-022-00355-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher L. Gilbert, 2021. "Regional premiums in nonferrous metals markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(11), pages 1693-1714, November.
    2. Peter Buchholz & Friedrich-W. Wellmer & Dennis Bastian & Maren Liedtke, 2020. "Leaning against the wind: low-price benchmarks for acting anticyclically in the metal markets," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 33(1), pages 81-100, July.
    3. John T Cuddington & Daniel Jerrett, 2008. "Super Cycles in Real Metals Prices?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(4), pages 541-565, December.
    4. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521326162 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Claudio Agostini, 2006. "Estimating Market Power in the US Copper Industry," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 28(1), pages 17-39, February.
    6. James G. MacKinnon & Nancy D. Olewiler, 1980. "Disequilibrium Estimation of the Demand for Copper," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 11(1), pages 197-211, Spring.
    7. Labys, W C & Lesourd, J B & Badillo, D, 1998. "The existence of metal price cycles," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 147-155, September.
    8. Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 1992. "On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23.
    9. Erten, Bilge & Ocampo, José Antonio, 2013. "Super Cycles of Commodity Prices Since the Mid-Nineteenth Century," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 14-30.
    10. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, May.
    11. Paul A. Samuelson, 1973. "Proof That Properly Discounted Present Values of Assets Vibrate Randomly," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(2), pages 369-374, Autumn.
    12. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521023399 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    14. Xue Jin & Shiwei Zhou & Kedong Yin & Mingzhen Li, 2021. "Relationships between Copper Futures Markets from the Perspective of Jump Diffusion," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(18), pages 1-25, September.
    15. Bahattin Buyuksahin & Kun Mo & Konrad Zmitrowicz, 2016. "Commodity Price Supercycles: What Are They and What Lies Ahead?," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2016(Autumn), pages 35-46.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rossen, Anja, 2015. "What are metal prices like? Co-movement, price cycles and long-run trends," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 255-276.
    2. Baffes, John & Kabundi, Alain, 2023. "Commodity price shocks: Order within chaos?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    3. Manuel Landajo & María José Presno, 2022. "The prices of renewable commodities: a robust stationarity analysis," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(2), pages 447-470, April.
    4. Yves Jégourel, 2018. "Tendances et cyclicité du prix des matières premières (partie 2) : le super-cycle des matières premières en question," Policy briefs 1824, Policy Center for the New South.
    5. Jair N. Ojeda-Joya & Oscar Jaulin-Mendez & Juan C. Bustos-Peláez, 2019. "The Interdependence Between Commodity-Price and GDP Cycles: A Frequency-Domain Approach," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 47(3), pages 275-292, September.
    6. Tapia, Carlos & Coulton, Jeff & Saydam, Serkan, 2020. "Using entropy to assess dynamic behaviour of long-term copper price," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    7. David S. Jacks, 2019. "From boom to bust: a typology of real commodity prices in the long run," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 13(2), pages 201-220, May.
    8. Ehrlich, Lars G., 2018. "What drives nickel prices: A structural VAR approach," HWWI Research Papers 186, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    9. Winkelried, Diego, 2018. "Unit roots, flexible trends, and the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 1-17.
    10. Vásquez Cordano, Arturo L. & Zellou, Abdel M., 2020. "Super cycles in natural gas prices and their impact on Latin American energy and environmental policies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    11. Manuel Landajo & Mar'ia Jos'e Presno, 2024. "The prices of renewable commodities: A robust stationarity analysis," Papers 2402.01005, arXiv.org.
    12. Baffes, John & Kabundi, Alain, 2024. "Do supercycles dominate commodity price movements?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    13. Vasyl Golosnoy & Anja Rossen, 2018. "Modeling dynamics of metal price series via state space approach with two common factors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1477-1501, June.
    14. Addison, Tony & Ghoshray, Atanu, 2023. "Discerning trends in international metal prices in the presence of nonstationary volatility," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    15. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2020. "Global factors, uncertainty, weather conditions and energy prices: On the drivers of the duration of commodity price cycle phases," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    16. Winkelried, Diego, 2016. "Piecewise linear trends and cycles in primary commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 196-213.
    17. Roberts, Mark C., 2009. "Duration and characteristics of metal price cycles," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 87-102, September.
    18. Awaworyi-Churchill, Sefa & Inekwe, John & Ivanovski, Kris & Smyth, Russell, 2022. "Breaks, trends and correlations in commodity prices in the very long-run," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    19. Jinan Liu & Apostolos Serletis, 2022. "World Commodity Prices and Economic Activity in Advanced and Emerging Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 347-374, April.
    20. Plantinga, Andrew J. & Provencher, Bill, 2001. "Internal Consistency In Models Of Optimal Resource Use Under Uncertainty," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20712, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:minecn:v:37:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s13563-022-00355-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.