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Disequilibrium Estimation of the Demand for Copper

Author

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  • James G. MacKinnon
  • Nancy D. Olewiler

Abstract

In this paper, we estimate the demand for refined copper in the United States, taking account of the fact that, during much of the sample period, copper supplies were rationed. The estimating technique, which is closely related to the Tobit model, is much simpler than techniques previously used to disequilibrium estimation. Our empirical results are consistent with institutional evidence of the existence of rationing. They suggest that OLS estimates of the demand for copper, which implicitly assume that the market is always in equilibrium, are severely biased.

Suggested Citation

  • James G. MacKinnon & Nancy D. Olewiler, 1978. "Disequilibrium Estimation of the Demand for Copper," Working Paper 315, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    • Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:315
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    Cited by:

    1. Agostini, Claudio & Saavedra, Eduardo H., 2013. "Chile: Port congestion and efficient rationing in cargo transfer operations," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    2. Thibault Fally & James Sayre, 2018. "Commodity Trade Matters," NBER Working Papers 24965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ignatius Horstmann & Sridhar Moorthy, 2003. "Advertising Spending and Quality for Services: The Role of Capacity," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 337-365, September.
    4. Christopher L. Gilbert, 2024. "Is there a copper super-cycle?," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 37(2), pages 359-380, June.
    5. Sayeh Shojaeinia, 2023. "Metal market analysis: an empirical model for copper supply and demand in US market," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 36(3), pages 509-517, September.
    6. Claudio Agostini, 2005. "Testing for Market Power under the Two-Price System in the U.S. Copper Industry," ILADES-UAH Working Papers inv159, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business.
    7. Hubbard, R Glenn & Weiner, Robert J, 1992. "Long-Term Contracting and Multiple-Price Systems," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(2), pages 177-198, April.
    8. Clinton Watkins & Michael McAleer, 2004. "Econometric modelling of non‐ferrous metal prices," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(5), pages 651-701, December.
    9. R. Glenn Hubbard & Robert J. Weiner, 1985. "Nominal Contracting and Price Flexibility in Product Markets," NBER Working Papers 1738, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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