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Spatial–temporal variations of carbon storage of the global forest ecosystem under future climate change

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  • Junfang Zhao

    (Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences)

  • Jianyong Ma

    (Huazhong Agricultural University
    Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research/Atmospheric Environmental Research)

  • Meiting Hou

    (China Meteorological Administration Training Centre)

  • Sen Li

    (National Meteorological Center)

Abstract

Forests play an important role in sequestrating atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Therefore, in order to understand the spatial–temporal variations and controlling mechanisms of global forest carbon (C) storage under future climate change, an improved individual-based forest ecosystem carbon budget model and remote sensing outputs in this study were applied to investigate the spatial–temporal dynamics of global forest (vegetation+soil) C storage in the future climate change scenario. The results showed that in the future RCP4.5 (representative concentration pathways) climate scenario, the total C storage per unit area per year in vegetation and soil of the global forest ecosystem showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing from 2006 to 2100, with an average of 22.77 kg C m−2 year−1. However, the evolution trends of C storage changes in vegetation and soil were different. Moreover, the average soil C storage per unit area per year was 2.87 times higher than the average vegetation C storage. The impact of climate change on total C storage in vegetation and soil of the global forest ecosystems was positive, showing an obvious increase during 2006–2100. The total C storage varied significantly in spatial distribution. Spatially, the vegetation C storage and the soil organic C storage were projected to decrease significantly in most parts of South America and southern Africa in the Southern Hemisphere and increase in eastern North America, western Asia, and most areas of Europe in the Northern Hemisphere. Especially in the middle and high latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere, the total forest C stock was projected to increase by 30–90% from 2046 to 2100. In the future, in these areas where forest C reserves were predicted to be reduced, it was suggested to increase afforestation, prohibit deforestation, and develop projects to increase forest C. Sustainable forest managements also offered opportunities for immediate mitigation and adaptation to climate change. Our findings provided not only a projection of C storage of global forest ecosystem responses to future climate change but also a useful methodology for estimating forest C storage at global levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Junfang Zhao & Jianyong Ma & Meiting Hou & Sen Li, 2020. "Spatial–temporal variations of carbon storage of the global forest ecosystem under future climate change," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 603-624, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:25:y:2020:i:4:d:10.1007_s11027-019-09882-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11027-019-09882-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Xue, Bao-Lin & Guo, Qinghua & Hu, Tianyu & Wang, Guoqiang & Wang, Yongcai & Tao, Shengli & Su, Yanjun & Liu, Jin & Zhao, Xiaoqian, 2017. "Evaluation of modeled global vegetation carbon dynamics: Analysis based on global carbon flux and above-ground biomass data," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 355(C), pages 84-96.
    2. Cao, Jianjun & Zhang, Xiaofang & Deo, Ravinesh & Gong, Yifan & Feng, Qi, 2018. "Influence of stand type and stand age on soil carbon storage in China’s arid and semi-arid regions," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 258-265.
    3. Mishra, Gaurav & Jangir, Abhishek & Francaviglia, Rosa, 2019. "Modeling soil organic carbon dynamics under shifting cultivation and forests using Rothc model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 396(C), pages 33-41.
    4. Zandersen, Marianne & Jørgensen, Sisse Liv & Nainggolan, Doan & Gyldenkærne, Steen & Winding, Anne & Greve, Mogens Humlekrog & Termansen, Mette, 2016. "Potential and economic efficiency of using reduced tillage to mitigate climate effects in Danish agriculture," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 14-22.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stella Manes & Igor Rodrigues Henud & Kenny Tanizaki-Fonseca, 2022. "Climate change mitigation potential of Atlantic Forest reforestations," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 1-15, June.
    2. Stella Manes & Igor Rodrigues Henud & Kenny Tanizaki-Fonseca, 2022. "Climate change mitigation potential of Atlantic Forest reforestations," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(6), pages 1-15, August.
    3. Manes, Stella & Vale, Mariana M. & Malecha, Artur & Pires, Aliny P.F., 2022. "Nature-based solutions promote climate change adaptation safeguarding ecosystem services," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).

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