Mathematical Models and Dynamic Global Warming Potential Calculation for Estimating the Role of Organic Amendment in Net-Zero Goal Achievement

This study aimed to assess the potential of soil organic carbon (SOC) production through organic amendments. SOC sequestration would help to achieve the net-zero emissions targets set by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Given the urgency to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, traditional methods that estimate SOC over 100 years must be revised. Hence, a novel fate transport numerical model was developed to forecast SOC levels relevant to individual countries’ net-zero targets in various time frames. The simulation results revealed that most countries had sufficient organic amendment to mitigate the CO 2 emission of that country for a year if the organic amendment was applied on 20% of the arable land. However, if a significant fraction of the total CO 2 emissions needs to be mitigated before reaching the net zero target, the requirements of organic amendments need to be increased several folds. All the available agricultural land should also be brought under the organic amendment regime. Later, the dynamic LCA approach was undertaken for estimating Global Warming (GWP) from land-applied organic residue. It was observed that, depending on the dynamic LCA model, the estimated GWP was different. However, the estimated dynamic GWP was very close to the residual SOC calculated through the fate transport model. The mass of organic residues generated from a biorefinery was examined by employing a waste biorefinery model to explore further the routes of acquiring additional organic amendment. Simulated results showed that while a waste biorefinery could not provide additional organic residue compared to the original organic waste input, it was highly efficient for nutrient recovery and its uses. This study demonstrated that organic amendment-based carbon sequestration adequately mitigated residual GHG at the net-zero target.