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An Application of Quah and Vahey’s SVAR Methodology for Estimating Core Inflation in India: A Note

Author

Listed:
  • Joice John

    (Reserve Bank of India)

  • Abhiman Das

    (Indian Institute of Management)

  • Sanjay Singh

    (Reserve Bank of India)

Abstract

Inflation, calculated as year-on-year per cent change in general price level, represents a combined effect of several types of price changes. The monetary authorities primarily focus to track that part of inflation, which can be effectively monitored and controlled using various monetary instruments. This persistent component of inflation is termed as ‘Core Inflation’, which possesses long-run properties as well as predictive power to forecast inflation. This paper makes use of Quah and Vahey’s definition of core inflation as that component of headline inflation, which has no impact on output in medium to long run and estimates it by placing restrictions on vector auto regression system with inflation and output growth. The analysis is based on monthly data from April 1995 to January 2009. Empirical results showed that in India, during 2006 and 2007, the inflation process was stronger than what headline inflation figures actually depicted and in 2008 the inflationary process has tended to be somewhat weaker than what was observed in headline inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Joice John & Abhiman Das & Sanjay Singh, 2016. "An Application of Quah and Vahey’s SVAR Methodology for Estimating Core Inflation in India: A Note," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 14(1), pages 151-158, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jqecon:v:14:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s40953-015-0023-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s40953-015-0023-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Todd E. Clark, 2001. "Comparing measures of core inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 86(Q II), pages 5-31.
    3. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1993. "The consumer price index as a measure of inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 29(Q IV), pages 15-24.
    4. Quah, Danny & Vahey, Shaun P, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(432), pages 1130-1144, September.
    5. Das, Abhiman & John, Joice & Singh, Sanjay, 2009. "Measuring Core Inflation in India," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 44(2), pages 247-273.
    6. Mick Silver, 2006. "Core Inflation Measures and Statistical Issues in Choosing Among Them," IMF Working Papers 2006/097, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Paulo Picchetti & Fabio Kanczuk, 2001. "An Application of Quah And Vaheys Svar Methodology for Estimating Core Inflation in Brazil," Anais do XXIX Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 29th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 019, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Core inflation; Structural vector auto regression;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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