IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ime/imemes/v20y2002i1p33-56.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Identifying Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Components of Inflation Rate: A Structural Vector Autoregression Analysis for Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Mio, Hitoshi

    (Bank of Japan)

Abstract

I estimate a bivariate output-price structural vector autoregression (VAR) model for Japan to decompose inflation rate time-series into two components explained by aggregate demand (AD) and aggregate supply (AS) shocks. For the model's identifying restriction, I assume that the long- run elasticity of output with respect to permanent changes in price due to AD shocks is zero; i.e., an AD shock has no long-run impact on the level of output. Dynamic properties of the estimated model are shown to be generally consistent with the predictions of the conventional AS-AD framework. The main features of the historical decomposition are the following: (1) the inflation rate explained by the AD shock shows a procyclical swing since 1970; (2) the inflation rate explained by the AS shock temporarily spikes during the two oil crises and experiences a large countercyclical swing in the 1990s; and (3) the coincidence of large and negative AS and AD shocks explains the combination of price stability and output stagnation during two recessions in the 1990s. These results are qualitatively robust to the sectoral shocks, alternative choices for the price variable, and assumptions for the lag length of VAR and the long-run elasticity of output with respect to permanent changes in price due to AD shocks. However, the bivariate approach does not allow the identification of more than three types of shocks with different dynaic effects on output and price. It might be necessary to expand the model to deal with this limitation.

Suggested Citation

  • Mio, Hitoshi, 2002. "Identifying Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Components of Inflation Rate: A Structural Vector Autoregression Analysis for Japan," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 20(1), pages 33-56, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:ime:imemes:v:20:y:2002:i:1:p:33-56
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.imes.boj.or.jp/research/papers/english/me20-1-2.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902.
    3. Okina, Kunio & Shirakawa, Masaaki & Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2001. "The Asset Price Bubble and Monetary Policy: Japan's Experience in the Late 1980s and the Lessons: Background Paper," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(S1), pages 395-450, February.
    4. Quah, Danny & Vahey, Shaun P, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(432), pages 1130-1144, September.
    5. Kunio Okina, 1997. "The Policy Objectives and the Optimal Institutional Framework of a Central Bank," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Iwao Kuroda (ed.), Towards More Effective Monetary Policy, chapter 13, pages 403-426, Palgrave Macmillan.
    6. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
    7. Bergman, Michael, 1996. "International evidence on the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1237-1258, June.
    8. Singleton, Kenneth J. (ed.), 1993. "Japanese Monetary Policy," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226760667, September.
    9. Balke, Nathan S. & Wynne, Mark A., 2000. "An equilibrium analysis of relative price changes and aggregate inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 269-292, April.
    10. Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 1997. "Inflation Measures for Monetary Policy: Measuring the Underlying Inflation Trend and Its Implication for Monetary Policy Implementation," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 15(2), pages 1-26, December.
    11. Mio, Hitoshi & Higo, Masahiro, 1999. "Underlying Inflation and the Distribution of Price Change: Evidence from the Japanese Trimmed-Mean CPI," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 17(1), pages 103-132, May.
    12. Bullard, James & Keating, John W., 1995. "The long-run relationship between inflation and output in postwar economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 477-496, December.
    13. Weber, Axel A., 1994. "Testing long-run neutrality: empirical evidence for G7-countries with special emphasis on Germany," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 67-117, December.
    14. Faust, Jon & Leeper, Eric M, 1997. "When Do Long-Run Identifying Restrictions Give Reliable Results?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 345-353, July.
    15. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1995. "Relative-Price Changes as Aggregate Supply Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(1), pages 161-193.
    16. Matthew D. Shapiro & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1988, Volume 3, pages 111-156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Mio, Hitoshi, 2001. "The Phillips Curve and Underlying Inflation," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(2), pages 85-107, May.
    18. Michael M. Hutchison, 1994. "Asset Price Fluctuations in Japan: What Role for Monetary Policy?," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 12(2), pages 61-83, December.
    19. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, April.
    20. Weber, Axel A, 1994. "Testing Long-run Neutrality: Empirical Evidence for G7 Countries with Special Emphasis on Germany," CEPR Discussion Papers 1042, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Keating, John W. & Nye, John V., 1999. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances in the G7 Countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 263-278, April.
    22. Luis J. Álvarez & María de los Llanos Matea, 1999. "Underlying Inflation Measures in Spain," Working Papers 9911, Banco de España.
    23. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1994. "Measuring Core Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 195-219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
    25. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1986. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Kenneth Singleton, 1993. "Japanese Monetary Policy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number sing93-1.
    27. Shigenori Shiratsuka, 2001. "Asset prices, financial stability and monetary policy: based on Japan’s experience of the asset price bubble," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 261-284, Bank for International Settlements.
    28. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:33:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Miyao, Ryuzo, 2002. "The Effects of Monetary Policy in Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 376-392, May.
    30. Michael Bruno & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1985. "Economics of Worldwide Stagflation," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number brun85-1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hondroyiannis, George & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2006. "Stock returns and inflation in Greece: A Markov switching approach," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 76-94.
    2. Ashima Goyal & Sritama Ray, 2022. "Exploring correlations between aggregate demand and supply shocks in India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2022-004, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    3. Claudio Morana, 2005. "The Japanese deflation: has it had real effects? Could it have been avoided?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(12), pages 1337-1352.
    4. Carlos A. Rodríguez, 2018. "Fuentes de las fluctuaciones macroeconómicas en Puerto Rico\Sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in Puerto Rico," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 33(2), pages 219-252.
    5. Ogawa, Eiji & Iwatsubo, Kentaro, 2009. "External adjustments and coordinated exchange rate policy in Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 225-239, May.
    6. Ashima Goyal & Sanchit Arora, 2012. "Deriving India's Potential growth from theory and structure," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2012-018, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Landau, Bettina, 2000. "Core inflation rates: a comparison of methods based on west German data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,04, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Shioji, Etsuro, 2000. "Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 22-42, March.
    3. Hondroyiannis, George & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2006. "Stock returns and inflation in Greece: A Markov switching approach," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 76-94.
    4. Lutz Kilian, 2013. "Structural vector autoregressions," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 22, pages 515-554, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2001. "Is There a Desirable Rate of Inflation? A Theoretical and Empirical Survey," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(2), pages 49-83, May.
    6. Juan‐Luis Vega & Mark A. Wynne, 2003. "A First Assessment of Some Measures of Core Inflation for the Euro Area," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 4(3), pages 269-306, August.
    7. Pascal Jacquinot, 2001. "L’inflation sous-jacente en France, en Allemagne et Royaume-Uni," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 147(1), pages 171-185.
    8. Keating, John W., 1996. "Structural information in recursive VAR orderings," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(9-10), pages 1557-1580.
    9. Keating, John W., 2000. "Macroeconomic Modeling with Asymmetric Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-28, January.
    10. Nakashima, Kiyotaka, 2006. "The Bank of Japan's operating procedures and the identification of monetary policy shocks: A reexamination using the Bernanke-Mihov approach," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 406-433, September.
    11. Mark A. Wynne, 2008. "Core inflation: a review of some conceptual issues," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(May), pages 205-228.
    12. Catherine Bruneau & Olivier De Bandt, 1999. "La modélisation Var "structurel" : application à la politique monétaire en France," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 137(1), pages 67-94.
    13. Keuk-Soo Kim & W. Douglas McMillin, 2003. "Estimating the effects of monetary policy shocks: does lag structure matter?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(13), pages 1515-1526.
    14. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
    15. Stefan Angrick & Naoyuki Yoshino, 2020. "From Window Guidance to Interbank Rates: Tracing the Transition of Monetary Policy in Japan and China," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(3), pages 279-316, June.
    16. Ribba, Antonio, 2007. "Permanent disinflationary effects on unemployment in a small open economy: Italy 1979-1995," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 66-81, January.
    17. Hartley, Peter R. & Whitt Jr, Joseph A., 2003. "Macroeconomic fluctuations: Demand or supply, permanent or temporary?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 61-94, February.
    18. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    19. repec:zbw:bofitp:2018_004 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. repec:bla:germec:v:4:y:2003:i::p:269-306 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Robert A Buckle & Kunhong Kim & Heather Kirkham & Nathan McLellan & Jared Sharma, 2002. "A structural VAR model of the New Zealand business cycle," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/26, New Zealand Treasury.
    22. Buckle, Robert A. & Kim, Kunhong & Kirkham, Heather & McLellan, Nathan & Sharma, Jarad, 2007. "A structural VAR business cycle model for a volatile small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 990-1017, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ime:imemes:v:20:y:2002:i:1:p:33-56. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kinken (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imegvjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.