IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/joecin/v20y2022i3d10.1007_s10888-021-09522-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The heterogeneous effects of COVID-19 on labor market flows: evidence from administrative data

Author

Listed:
  • Alessandra Casarico

    (Bocconi University
    CESIfo
    Dondena Research center on Social Dynamics and Public policy and Covid Crisis Lab)

  • Salvatore Lattanzio

    (Bank of Italy, Directorate General for Economics, Statistics and Research)

Abstract

We investigate the short-term effects of COVID-19 on labor market flows and how they are mediated by labor market policy. Using Italian administrative data on a sample of active contracts between 2009 and the second quarter of 2020, we show that, before the pandemic, a higher share of female compared to male, young compared to old and low educated compared to high educated workers is employed in non-essential activities. When we look at the change in hirings and separations, from the 9th week of 2020 - the time when first cases and deaths due to COVID-19 were recorded -, we find a pronounced drop in hirings and endings of fixed-term contracts. Layoffs and quits increase after the 9th week, and then decline significantly, reflecting the effects of government intervention. The lifting of the lockdown triggers a slow recovery of labor market flows. Young workers, those on temporary contracts, low-educated workers, those employed in the South and those with no opportunities of working from home experience a greater decline in separation probability, indicating that government policy partly protected them from the labor market impact of the recession. The decline in the separation probability for women is lower than that for men.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandra Casarico & Salvatore Lattanzio, 2022. "The heterogeneous effects of COVID-19 on labor market flows: evidence from administrative data," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(3), pages 537-558, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joecin:v:20:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s10888-021-09522-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10888-021-09522-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10888-021-09522-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10888-021-09522-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lidia Farré & Yarine Fawaz & Libertad González Luna & Jennifer Graves, 2020. "How the covid-19 lockdown affected gender Inequality in paid and unpaid work in Spain," Economics Working Papers 1728, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    2. Mario Izquierdo & Juan Francisco Jimeno & Theodora Kosma & Ana Lamo & Stephen Millard & Tairi Rõõm & Eliana Viviano, 2017. "Labour market adjustment in Europe during the crisis: microeconomic evidence from the Wage Dynamics Network survey," Occasional Papers 1704, Banco de España.
    3. Claudia Hupkau & Barbara Petrongolo, 2020. "Work, Care and Gender during the COVID‐19 Crisis," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(3), pages 623-651, September.
    4. Dingel, Jonathan I. & Neiman, Brent, 2020. "How many jobs can be done at home?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    5. Adams-Prassl, Abi & Boneva, Teodora & Golin, Marta & Rauh, Christopher, 2020. "Inequality in the impact of the coronavirus shock: Evidence from real time surveys," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    6. Kugler, Adriana & Pica, Giovanni, 2008. "Effects of employment protection on worker and job flows: Evidence from the 1990 Italian reform," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 78-95, February.
    7. Tito Boeri & Andrea Ichino & Enrico Moretti & Johanna Posch, 2021. "Wage Equalization and Regional Misallocation: Evidence from Italian and German Provinces [“Regional Wage Disparities and Migration.”]," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(6), pages 3249-3292.
    8. Guido Matias Cortes & Eliza Forsythe, 2023. "Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 76(1), pages 30-55, January.
    9. Scott R Baker & Robert A Farrokhnia & Steffen Meyer & Michaela Pagel & Constantine Yannelis & Jeffrey Pontiff, 0. "How Does Household Spending Respond to an Epidemic? Consumption during the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 834-862.
    10. Forsythe, Eliza & Kahn, Lisa B. & Lange, Fabian & Wiczer, David, 2020. "Labor demand in the time of COVID-19: Evidence from vacancy postings and UI claims," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    11. Hans-Martin von Gaudecker & Radost Holler & Lena Janys & Bettina Siflinger & Christian Zimpelmann, 2020. "Labour supply in the early stages of the CoViD-19 Pandemic: Empirical Evidence on hours, home office, and expectations," ECONtribute Policy Brief Series 005, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    12. Michèle Belot & Syngjoo Choi & Egon Tripodi & Eline van den Broek-Altenburg & Julian C. Jamison & Nicholas W. Papageorge, 2021. "Unequal consequences of Covid 19: representative evidence from six countries," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 769-783, September.
    13. Luca Bonacini & Giovanni Gallo & Sergio Scicchitano, 2021. "Working from home and income inequality: risks of a ‘new normal’ with COVID-19," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(1), pages 303-360, January.
    14. Andrew Garin, 2019. "How Responsive are Wages to Demand within the Firm? Evidence from Idiosyncratic Export Demand Shocks," Working Papers w201902, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    15. Crossley, Thomas F. & Fisher, Paul & Low, Hamish, 2021. "The heterogeneous and regressive consequences of COVID-19: Evidence from high quality panel data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Stefan Jestl & Branimir Jovanović & Ambre Maucorps & Leon Podkaminer & Maryna Tverdostup, 2024. "Monthly Report No. 3/2024," wiiw Monthly Reports 2024-03, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    2. Giulia Bettin & Isabella Giorgetti & Stefano Staffolani, 2024. "The impact of Covid-19 lockdown on the gender gap in the Italian labour market," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 1-33, March.
    3. Konstantins Benkovskis & Olegs Tkacevs & Karlis Vilerts, 2024. "Understanding How Job Retention Schemes Reshape the Within-Occupation Skill Profile of Employees within Firms," Working Papers 2024/02, Latvijas Banka.
    4. Elisa Brini & Stefani Scherer & Agnese Vitali, 2024. "Gender and Beyond: Employment Patterns during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Italy," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(3), pages 1-23, June.
    5. Branimir Jovanović & Michael Landesmann & Oliver Reiter & Bernhard Schütz, 2023. "Structural Change, Income Distribution and Unemployment Related to COVID-19: An Agent-based Model," wiiw Working Papers 223, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    6. Basso, Gaetano & Depalo, Domenico & Lattanzio, Salvatore, 2023. "Worker flows and reallocation during the recovery," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    7. Guillermo Cabanillas-Jiménez & Yannis Galanakis, 2024. "The varying impact of COVID-19 in the Spanish Labor Market," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1075-1104, November.
    8. Luca Citino & Edoardo Di Porto & Andrea Linarello & Francesca Lotti & Enrico Sette, 2023. "Creation, destruction and reallocation of jobs in italian firms: an analysis based on administrative data," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 751, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Hayakawa,Kazunobu & Sudsawasd,Sasatra, 2024. "The Wage Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic by Company Size: Evidence from Thailand," IDE Discussion Papers 945, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    10. Zarifhonarvar, Ali, 2022. "A Survey on the Impact of Covid-19 on the Labor Market," EconStor Preprints 265549, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    11. Benitez-Rueda, Miguel & Domínguez, Nicolás & Parrado, Eric, 2023. "Mobility Restrictions and Automation in the Developing World: Evidence from Peru's Labor Market," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12823, Inter-American Development Bank.
    12. Gordon Betcherman & Nicholas Giannakopoulos & Ioannis Laliotis & Ioanna Pantelaiou & Mauro Testaverde & Giannis Tzimas, 2023. "The short-term impact of the 2020 pandemic lockdown on employment in Greece," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(3), pages 1273-1307, September.
    13. Crudu, Federico & Di Stefano, Roberta & Mellace, Giovanni & Tiezzi, Silvia, 2024. "The gray zone: How not imposing a strict lockdown at the beginning of a pandemic can cost many lives," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    14. Gaetano Basso & Domenico Depalo & Salvatore Lattanzio, 2022. "Job flows and reallocation during the recovery," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 704, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    15. Gómez, Ángel Luis & Lattanzio, Salvatore, 2024. "Worker reallocation in Italy and Spain after the COVID-19 pandemic," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 5(1).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Deole, Sumit S. & Deter, Max & Huang, Yue, 2023. "Home sweet home: Working from home and employee performance during the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    2. Stefanie Stantcheva, 2022. "Inequalities in the times of a pandemic," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 37(109), pages 5-41.
    3. Francesco Fasani & Jacopo Mazza, 2023. "Being on the Frontline? Immigrant Workers in Europe and the COVID-19 Pandemic," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 76(5), pages 890-918, October.
    4. Sara Grubanov-Boskovic & Spyridon Spyratos & Stefano Maria Iacus & Umberto Minora & Francesco Sermi, 2021. "Monitoring COVID-19-induced gender differences in teleworking rates using Mobile Network Data," Papers 2111.09442, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2021.
    5. Blanas, Sotiris & Oikonomou, Rigas, 2023. "COVID-induced economic uncertainty, tasks and occupational demand," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    6. Andrew E. Clark & Conchita D’Ambrosio & Anthony Lepinteur, 2021. "The fall in income inequality during COVID-19 in four European countries," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 19(3), pages 489-507, September.
    7. Alejandra Bellatin & Gabriela Galassi, 2022. "What COVID-19 May Leave Behind: Technology-Related Job Postings in Canada," Staff Working Papers 22-17, Bank of Canada.
    8. Alipour, Jean-Victor & Fadinger, Harald & Schymik, Jan, 2021. "My home is my castle – The benefits of working from home during a pandemic crisis," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    9. Valentina Rivera & Francisca Castro, 2021. "Between Social Protests and a Global Pandemic: Working Transitions under the Economic Effects of COVID-19," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-21, April.
    10. Leonardo Fabio Morales & Leonardo Bonilla‐Mejía & Jose Pulido & Luz A. Flórez & Didier Hermida & Karen L. Pulido‐Mahecha & Francisco Lasso‐Valderrama, 2022. "Effects of the COVID‐19 pandemic on the Colombian labour market: Disentangling the effect of sector‐specific mobility restrictions," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 308-357, February.
    11. Jun Hyung Kim & Yu Kyung Koh & Jinseong Park, 2023. "Mental Health Consequences of Working from Home during the Pandemic," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(1), pages 18-50, January.
    12. Miriam Marcén & Marina Morales, 2021. "The intensity of COVID‐19 nonpharmaceutical interventions and labor market outcomes in the public sector," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 775-798, September.
    13. Claudia Hupkau & Barbara Petrongolo, 2020. "Work, Care and Gender during the COVID‐19 Crisis," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(3), pages 623-651, September.
    14. Michaela Benzeval & Jon Burton & Thomas Crossley & Paul Fisher & Annette Jäckle & Hamish Low & Brendan Read, 2020. "The idiosyncratic impact of an aggregate shock: the distributional consequences of COVID-19," IFS Working Papers W20/15, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    15. Thomas F Crossley & Paul Fisher & Hamish Low & Peter Levell, 2023. "A year of COVID: the evolution of labour market and financial inequalities through the crisis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(3), pages 589-612.
    16. Daniel Graeber & Alexander S. Kritikos & Johannes Seebauer, 2021. "COVID-19: a crisis of the female self-employed," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 1141-1187, October.
    17. Blázquez, Maite & Herrarte, Ainhoa & Moro-Egido, Ana I., 2024. "Has the COVID-19 pandemic widened the gender gap in paid work hours in Spain?," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 90(2), pages 313-348, June.
    18. Rebecca Brough & Matthew Freedman & David C. Phillips, 2021. "Understanding socioeconomic disparities in travel behavior during the COVID‐19 pandemic," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 753-774, September.
    19. Abel Brodeur & David Gray & Anik Islam & Suraiya Bhuiyan, 2021. "A literature review of the economics of COVID‐19," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 1007-1044, September.
    20. Cerqua, Augusto & Letta, Marco, 2022. "Local inequalities of the COVID-19 crisis," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:joecin:v:20:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s10888-021-09522-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.