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The fully visible Boltzmann machine and the Senate of the 45th Australian Parliament in 2016

Author

Listed:
  • Jessica J. Bagnall

    (La Trobe University)

  • Andrew T. Jones

    (University of Queensland)

  • Natalie Karavarsamis

    (La Trobe University)

  • Hien D. Nguyen

    (La Trobe University)

Abstract

After the 2016 double dissolution election, the 45th Australian Parliament was formed. At the time of its swearing in, the Senate of the 45th Australian Parliament consisted of nine political parties, the largest number in the history of the Australian Parliament. Due to the breadth of the political spectrum that the Senate represented, the situation presented an interesting opportunity for the study of political interactions in the Australian context. Using publicly available Senate voting data in 2016, we quantitatively analyzed two aspects of the Senate. First, we analyzed the degree to which each of the non-government parties of the Senate is pro- or anti-government. Second, we analyzed the degree to which the votes of each of the non-government Senate parties are in concordance or discordance with one another. We utilized the fully visible Boltzmann machine (FVBM) model to conduct these analyses. The FVBM is an artificial neural network that can be viewed as a multivariate generalization of the Bernoulli distribution. Via a maximum pseudolikelihood estimation approach, we conducted parameter estimation and constructed hypothesis tests that revealed the interaction structures within the Australian Senate. The conclusions that we drew are well supported by external sources of information.

Suggested Citation

  • Jessica J. Bagnall & Andrew T. Jones & Natalie Karavarsamis & Hien D. Nguyen, 2020. "The fully visible Boltzmann machine and the Senate of the 45th Australian Parliament in 2016," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 55-81, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jcsosc:v:3:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s42001-019-00055-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s42001-019-00055-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. D. R. Cox, 1972. "The Analysis of Multivariate Binary Data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 21(2), pages 113-120, June.
    2. Danielle Wood & John Daley & Carmela Chivers, 2018. "Australia Demonstrates the Rise of Populism is About More than Economics," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 51(3), pages 399-410, September.
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