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Age of Retirement and Human Capital in an Aging China, 2015–2050

Author

Listed:
  • Qiushi Feng

    (National University of Singapore)

  • Wei-Jun Jean Yeung

    (National University of Singapore)

  • Zhenglian Wang

    (Duke University)

  • Yi Zeng

    (Duke University
    Peking University)

Abstract

As China continues to age rapidly, whether the country should adjust the official retirement age, and if so, when and how, are currently major policy concerns. We examine the impact of postponing the retirement age on the human capital of China in the next four decades. Two critical aspects of human capital—health and education—are incorporated to account for the quality of the work force. Our projections reveal the impact of nine scenarios on the Chinese labor force in the next few decades, highlighting the changes in “the high human capital workforce”—those with good health and education. We show substantial impact with added work force ranging from 28 to 92 million per year depending on which scenarios are implemented. Furthermore, the retained workers are increasingly better educated. The gain in female workers is particularly significant, reaping the benefits of the education expansion since the 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Qiushi Feng & Wei-Jun Jean Yeung & Zhenglian Wang & Yi Zeng, 2019. "Age of Retirement and Human Capital in an Aging China, 2015–2050," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 35(1), pages 29-62, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:35:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s10680-018-9467-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10680-018-9467-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhan Cao & Yizhou Tang, 2021. "The effect of increasing retirement age on consumption in China," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 35(2), pages 136-150, November.
    2. Deng, Yuanyuan & Fang, Hanming & Hanewald, Katja & Wu, Shang, 2023. "Delay the Pension Age or Adjust the Pension Benefit? Implications for Labor Supply and Individual Welfare in China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 1192-1215.
    3. Zhewen Tang & Mahmood Shah & Arshad Jamal, 2024. "Exploring the Process of Technology Socialization (TS) in the Family: ICT Adoption for Middle-aged Parents with the Influence of Adult Children," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 1873-1892, October.
    4. Gajowiak Małgorzata, 2024. "Ageism in the Workplace – Selected Research Results in SMEs from the Poznań Poviat," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 24(1), pages 41-55.
    5. Yonghe Xiao & Jingxuan Li, 2022. "RETRACTED ARTICLE: A conversational analysis of aging in China from a cross-section of the labour market: a corpus-based study," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-7, December.
    6. Osathanunkul, Rossarin & Dumrong, Pasinee & Yamaka, Woraphon & Maneejuk, Paravee, 2023. "The nonlinear impacts of aging labor and government health expenditures on productivity in ASEAN+3 economies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 450-470.
    7. Wenwen Kong & Minmin Ren & Yuqin Li & Danjun Feng, 2022. "Predictors of delayed retirement intention in older Chinese workers," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 36(4), pages 505-524, December.

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