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A multi-dimensional model for projecting family households - with an illustrative numerical application

Author

Listed:
  • Zeng Yi
  • James Vaupel
  • Wang Zhenglian

Abstract

This paper develops a multi-dimensional model for projecting households and population. The model is constructed to ensure consistency between the demographic events occurring to males and females as well as to parents and children. The model permits projection of characteristics of households, their members, and population structure, using data that are usually available from conventional sources. Unlike the traditional headship-rate method, our model can closely link the projected households with demographic rates. The model includes both nuclear and three-generation households, so that it can be used for countries where nuclear households are dominant and for countries where nuclear and three-generation households are both important. The illustrative application to China, although brief, provides some policy-relevant information about future trends of Chinese household size, structure, and the age and sex distribution of the population, with a focus on the elderly.

Suggested Citation

  • Zeng Yi & James Vaupel & Wang Zhenglian, 1997. "A multi-dimensional model for projecting family households - with an illustrative numerical application," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 187-216.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:6:y:1997:i:3:p:187-216
    DOI: 10.1080/08898489709525432
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Yi Zeng & Kenneth Land & Zhenglian Wang & Danan Gu, 2013. "Household and Living Arrangement Projections at the Subnational Level: An Extended Cohort-Component Approach," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(3), pages 827-852, June.
    2. Yi Zeng & Eric Stallard & Zhenglian Wang, 2004. "Estimating time-varying sex-age-specific o/e rates of marital status transitions in family household projection or simulation," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 11(10), pages 263-304.
    3. Bongoh Kye & Yool Choi, 2021. "Are parents and children coresiding less than before? An analysis of intergenerational coresidence in South Korea, 1980–2015," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(1), pages 1-16.
    4. Qiushi Feng & Zhenglian Wang & Simon Choi & Yi Zeng, 2020. "Forecast Households at the County Level: An Application of the ProFamy Extended Cohort-Component Method in Six Counties of Southern California, 2010 to 2040," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 39(2), pages 253-281, April.
    5. Frans Willekens & Hein Putter, 2014. "Software for multistate analysis," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(14), pages 381-420.
    6. Qiushi Feng & Wei-Jun Jean Yeung & Zhenglian Wang & Yi Zeng, 2019. "Age of Retirement and Human Capital in an Aging China, 2015–2050," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 35(1), pages 29-62, February.
    7. Tom Wilson, 2013. "The sequential propensity household projection model," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(24), pages 681-712.
    8. Andrew Mason & Sang-Hyop Lee, 2004. "Population aging and the extended family in Taiwan," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 10(8), pages 197-230.
    9. Yi Zeng & Eric Stallard & Zhenglian Wang, 2003. "Estimating time-varying sex-age-specific o/e rates of marital status transitions in family household projection or simulation," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2003-024, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    10. Hal Caswell, 2020. "The formal demography of kinship II: Multistate models, parity, and sibship," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 42(38), pages 1097-1146.
    11. Yi Zeng & Linda George, 2000. "Family Dynamics of 63 Million (in 1990) to More Than 330 Million (in 2050) Elders in China," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 2(5).

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