IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/epolit/v38y2021i2d10.1007_s40888-021-00229-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trust in the European Union project and the role of ECB

Author

Listed:
  • Giorgio Liotti

    (University of Naples “Federico II”)

  • Rosaria Rita Canale

    (University of Naples “Parthenope”)

Abstract

Was the European Central Bank able to assure the relaunch of the European project after the weakening of the post-crisis period? To answer this question, this paper presents an empirical analysis connecting citizen trust in the European Union with a variable intended to be a measure of the monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank, namely, the interest rate on government bonds extracted from the 1-year maturity yield curve. The dynamic panel technique, applied to nineteen Eurozone countries for the time span of 2004–2018, estimates the presence of a long-run common relationship between the variables despite allowing different short-run adjustment mechanisms. Results are revealed to be not univocal: the easy monetary policy strategy is associated for the whole period with a decline of trust, and therefore, despite its impressiveness, it was not sufficient to relaunch the European Union project. However, when considering the change in strategy of the post-2013 period, it seemed to have contributed to a slight inversion of the decline of trust. These results highlight the importance of non-conventional measures and call for further support from coordinated policy action as a response to the negative shock deriving from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Giorgio Liotti & Rosaria Rita Canale, 2021. "Trust in the European Union project and the role of ECB," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(2), pages 461-482, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:epolit:v:38:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s40888-021-00229-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s40888-021-00229-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40888-021-00229-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s40888-021-00229-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Etienne Farvaque & Muhammad Azmat Hayat & Alexander Mihailov, 2017. "Who Supports the ECB? Evidence from Eurobarometer Survey Data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(4), pages 654-677, April.
    2. Felix Roth & Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D. & Thomas Otter, 2022. "Has the Financial Crisis Shattered Citizens’ Trust in National and European Governmental Institutions? Evidence from the EU Member States, 1999–2010," Contributions to Economics, in: Public Support for the Euro, chapter 0, pages 187-217, Springer.
    3. Michael Ehrmann & Michel Soudan & Livio Stracca, 2013. "Explaining European Union Citizens’ Trust in the European Central Bank in Normal and Crisis Times," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 115(3), pages 781-807, July.
    4. Felix Roth & Edgar Baake & Lars Jonung & Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D., 2022. "Revisiting Public Support for the Euro, 1999–2017: Accounting for the Crisis and the Recovery," Contributions to Economics, in: Public Support for the Euro, chapter 0, pages 21-45, Springer.
    5. Felix Roth, 2022. "The Effect of the Financial Crisis on Systemic Trust," Contributions to Economics, in: Public Support for the Euro, chapter 0, pages 219-229, Springer.
    6. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    7. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    8. Joakim Westerlund, 2007. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(6), pages 709-748, December.
    9. Konstantinos Drakos & Christos Kallandranis & Socrates Karidis, 2018. "A note on trust in the ECB in the era of sovereign debt crisis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(6), pages 366-368, March.
    10. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    11. Nannestad, Peter & Paldam, Martin, 1994. "The VP-Function: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions after 25 Years," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 79(3-4), pages 213-245, June.
    12. Uribe, Martín & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie, 2012. "The Making Of A Great Contraction With A Liquidity Trap and A Jobless Recovery," CEPR Discussion Papers 9237, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Linda Veiga & Francisco Veiga, 2007. "Political business cycles at the municipal level," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 131(1), pages 45-64, April.
    14. repec:bla:jcmkts:v:48:y:2010:i::p:1261-1281 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Karl Kaltenthaler & Christopher J. Anderson & William J. Miller, 2010. "Accountability and Independent Central Banks: Europeans and Distrust of the European Central Bank," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(5), pages 1261-1281, November.
    16. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    17. Justina Fischer & Volker Hahn, 2008. "Determinants of Trust in the European Central Bank," TWI Research Paper Series 26, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universität Konstanz.
    18. Roman Horvath & Dominika Katuscakova, 2016. "Transparency and trust: the case of the European Central Bank," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(57), pages 5625-5638, December.
    19. Maciej Albinowski & Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca, 2014. "Links between trust in the ECB and its interest rate policy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(25), pages 3090-3106, September.
    20. Sara B. Hobolt, 2012. "Citizen Satisfaction with Democracy in the European Union," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(S1), pages 88-105, March.
    21. Edward F. Blackburne III & Mark W. Frank, 2007. "Estimation of nonstationary heterogeneous panels," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 7(2), pages 197-208, June.
    22. Hobolt, Sara B. & de Vries, Catherine E., 2016. "Turning against the union? The impact of the crisis on the Eurosceptic vote in the 2014 European Parliament elections," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 66831, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    23. Mariangela Bonasia & Rosaria Rita Canale, 2018. "Long†run macro drivers of citizens’ mood in European institutions: An empirical assessment," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(2), pages 427-443, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Canale, Rosaria Rita & De Simone, Elina & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2021. "Financial markets and fiscal discipline in the Eurozone," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 490-499.
    2. Rosaria Rita Canale & G. Liotti, 2022. "Target2 imbalances and poverty in the eurozone," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 32(5), pages 1395-1417, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hayo, Bernd & Méon, Pierre-Guillaume, 2024. "Preaching to the agnostic: Inflation reporting can increase trust in the central bank but only among people with weak priors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    2. Jian Xue & Zeeshan Rasool & Raima Nazar & Ahmad Imran Khan & Shaukat Hussain Bhatti & Sajid Ali, 2021. "Revisiting Natural Resources—Globalization-Environmental Quality Nexus: Fresh Insights from South Asian Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-19, April.
    3. Mushtaq Ahmad Malik & Tariq Masood, 2022. "Dynamics of Output Growth and Convergence in the Middle East and North African Countries: Heterogeneous Panel ARDL Approach," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 13(2), pages 1444-1469, June.
    4. Siria Angino & Federico M Ferrara & Stefania Secola, 2022. "The cultural origins of institutional trust: The case of the European Central Bank," European Union Politics, , vol. 23(2), pages 212-235, June.
    5. Gianni Carvelli, 2023. "The long-run effects of government expenditure on private investments: a panel CS-ARDL approach," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(3), pages 620-645, September.
    6. Comunale, Mariarosaria & Felice, Giulia, 2022. "Trade and structural change: An empirical investigation," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 58-79.
    7. Bakry, Walid & Nghiem, Xuan-Hoa & Farouk, Sherine & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2023. "Does it hurt or help? Revisiting the effects of ICT on economic growth and energy consumption: A nonlinear panel ARDL approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 597-617.
    8. Joseph David, 2024. "The role of corruption in the oil price–growth relationship: Insights from oil-rich economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(6), pages 1-32, December.
    9. Carvelli, Gianni, 2024. "The dynamic effects of public investments on private capital formation: Modelling a heterogeneous asymmetric cointegration with unobserved global factors," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    10. Liu, Zhen & Ngo, Thanh Quang & Saydaliev, Hayot Berk & He, Huiyuan & Ali, Sajid, 2022. "How do trade openness, public expenditure and institutional performance affect unemployment in OIC countries? Evidence from the DCCE approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(4).
    11. Mariarosaria Comunale & Giulia Felice, 2019. "An empirical investigation of the relationship between trade and structural change," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 62, Bank of Lithuania.
    12. Shu Wu & Majed Alharthi & Weihua Yin & Qaiser Abbas & Adnan Noor Shah & Saeed ur Rahman & Jamal Khan, 2021. "The Carbon-Neutral Energy Consumption and Emission Volatility: The Causality Analysis of ASEAN Region," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-14, May.
    13. Zeeshan Arshad & Margarita Robaina & Anabela Botelho, 2020. "Renewable and Non-renewable Energy, Economic Growth and Natural Resources Impact on Environmental Quality: Empirical Evidence from South and Southeast Asian Countries with CS-ARDL Modeling," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 368-383.
    14. Jalil, Abdul, 2014. "Energy–growth conundrum in energy exporting and importing countries: Evidence from heterogeneous panel methods robust to cross-sectional dependence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 314-324.
    15. Carin van der Cruijsen & Anna Samarina, 2021. "Trust in the ECB in turbulent times," Working Papers 722, DNB.
    16. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2024. "Central Bank Communication with the General Public: Promise or False Hope?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(2), pages 425-457, June.
    17. Vassilis Monastiriotis & Cigdem Borke Tunali, 2020. "The Sustainability of External Imbalances in the European Periphery," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 273-294, April.
    18. Hayo, Bernd & Neuenkirch, Edith, 2014. "The German public and its trust in the ECB: The role of knowledge and information search," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 286-303.
    19. Cem Ertur & Antonio Musolesi, 2017. "Weak and Strong Cross‐Sectional Dependence: A Panel Data Analysis of International Technology Diffusion," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 477-503, April.
    20. Dongwon Lee & Yu-chin Chen, 2014. "What Makes a Commodity Currency?," Working Papers 201420, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trust; European Union; Monetary policy; Systemic shock; Dynamic panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:epolit:v:38:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s40888-021-00229-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.