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Who Supports the ECB? Evidence from Eurobarometer Survey Data

Author

Listed:
  • Etienne Farvaque

    (Department of Economics, University of Lille 1)

  • Muhammad Azmat Hayat

    (Department of Economics, University of Lille 1)

  • Alexander Mihailov

    (Department of Economics, University of Reading)

Abstract

This paper addresses empirically the still debated issue of the legitimacy of the European Central Bank (ECB) with regard to European polities, presenting evidence on public opinion support for the ECB as elicited from responses in the recent waves of the Eurobarometer survey. We employ a rich set of potential determinants, combining macroeconomic and socio-demographic data in logistic regressions, to explain trust in the ECB. We find that people with higher level of income and education and centre to right-wing political orientation tend to support the ECB, as well as people with optimistic expectations on the economic situation. Moreover, our results indicate that socio-demographic determinants of trust in the ECB dominate macroeconomic ones, in particular inflation performance, by a considerable margin of magnitude and in a quite robust way. The policy relevance of such results is important for ECB's communication strategy with the EU public, especially in the years ahead of likely reforms of the European Monetary Union (EMU).

Suggested Citation

  • Etienne Farvaque & Muhammad Azmat Hayat & Alexander Mihailov, 2011. "Who Supports the ECB? Evidence from Eurobarometer Survey Data," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2011-04, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    • Handle: RePEc:rdg:emxxdp:em-dp2011-04
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    Cited by:

    1. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2024. "Central Bank Communication with the General Public: Promise or False Hope?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(2), pages 425-457, June.
    2. Niţoi, Mihai & Pochea, Maria-Miruna, 2024. "Trust in the central bank, financial literacy, and personal beliefs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    3. Hayo, Bernd & Neuenkirch, Edith, 2014. "The German public and its trust in the ECB: The role of knowledge and information search," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 286-303.
    4. Siria Angino & Federico M Ferrara & Stefania Secola, 2022. "The cultural origins of institutional trust: The case of the European Central Bank," European Union Politics, , vol. 23(2), pages 212-235, June.
    5. Brouwer, Nils & de Haan, Jakob, 2022. "The impact of providing information about the ECB’s instruments on inflation expectations and trust in the ECB: Experimental evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    6. Maciej Albinowski & Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca, 2014. "Links between trust in the ECB and its interest rate policy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(25), pages 3090-3106, September.
    7. Giorgio Liotti & Rosaria Rita Canale, 2021. "Trust in the European Union project and the role of ECB," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(2), pages 461-482, July.
    8. Simplice A. Asongu & Samba Diop & Cheikh Tidiane Ndiaye, 2024. "Who supports the African Union? Understanding the determinants of citizens’ opinion for African integration," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 24/018, African Governance and Development Institute..
    9. Torój, Andrzej & Bednarek, Elżbieta & Bęza-Bojanowska, Joanna & Osińska, Joanna & Waćko, Katarzyna & Witkowski, Dariusz, 2012. "EMU: the (post-)crisis perspective. Literature survey and implications for the euro-candidates," MF Working Papers 12, Ministry of Finance in Poland, revised 06 Mar 2012.
    10. Eickmeier, Sandra & Petersen, Luba, 2024. "Toward a holistic approach to central bank trust," Discussion Papers 27/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    11. Etienne Farvaque & Muhammad Azmat Hayat & Alexander Mihailov, 2017. "Who Supports the ECB? Evidence from Eurobarometer Survey Data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(4), pages 654-677, April.
    12. Diop, Samba & Asongu, Simplice A. & Ndiaye, Cheikh Tidiane, 2024. "Supporting African union: Do macroeconomic fluctuations matter?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(3).
    13. Hayo, Bernd & Méon, Pierre-Guillaume, 2024. "Preaching to the agnostic: Inflation reporting can increase trust in the central bank but only among people with weak priors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    14. Bernd Hayo & Florian Neumeier, 2021. "Explaining central bank trust in an inflation-targeting country: the case of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(1), pages 27-48.
    15. Hwang, In Do & Lustenberger, Thomas & Rossi, Enzo, 2023. "Central bank communication and public trust: The case of ECB speeches," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    16. Hwang, In Do & Lustenberger, Thomas & Rossi, Enzo, 2021. "Does communication influence executives’ opinion of central bank policy?☆," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    17. Dräger, Lena, 2023. "Central Bank Communication with the General Public," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-713, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    18. Brouwer, Nils & de Haan, Jakob, 2022. "Trust in the ECB: Drivers and consequences," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    19. Roth, Felix & Gros, Daniel & Nowak-Lehmann D., Felicitas, 2012. "Has the financial crisis eroded citizens' trust in the European Central Bank? Panel data evidence for the Euro area, 1999-2011," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 124, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    20. Petra Cisková & Emília Zimková & Colin Lawson, 2021. "Visegrad trust in the European Central Bank: common and country specific determinants 2005–2018," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 52(6), pages 495-516.
    21. Angino, Siria & Secola, Stefania, 2022. "Instinctive versus reflective trust in the European Central Bank," Working Paper Series 2660, European Central Bank.
    22. Simplice A. Asongu & Samba Diop & Cheikh T. Ndiaye, 2024. "Who supports the African Union? Understanding the determinants of citizens' opinion for African integration," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 36(2), pages 266-278, June.
    23. Hyunwoo Kim, 2023. "Monetary technocracy and democratic accountability: how central bank independence conditions economic voting," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 939-964, May.
    24. repec:got:cegedp:124 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. In Do Hwang & Dr. Enzo Rossi, 2020. "Does communication influence executives' opinion of central bank policy?," Working Papers 2020-17, Swiss National Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    European Central Bank; communication; legitimacy; determinants of trust; Eurobarometer survey; logistic regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • Z13 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Language; Social and Economic Stratification

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