IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/joevec/v32y2022i5d10.1007_s00191-022-00797-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Target2 imbalances and poverty in the eurozone

Author

Listed:
  • Rosaria Rita Canale

    (University of Naples ‘Parthenope’)

  • G. Liotti

    (University of Messina)

Abstract

This paper aims to investigate the relationship between external imbalances and poverty in the Eurozone. The former are registered through the Target2 (T2) settlement mechanism and can be assimilated into changes in official reserves to cover the balance of payments disequilibrium in a fixed exchange rate regime. The presence of T2 discrepancies has led to differences in interest rates and increased distances in general living conditions inside the Eurozone. An empirical investigation implemented in 11 Eurozone countries reveals that T2 is negatively correlated with poverty, therefore allowing for an interpretation that approximates balance of payment crisis models. Results that appear to be robust to several control variables suggest that the policy framework of the Eurozone—in the absence of a compensatory mechanism—should be revised towards centralised fiscal instruments and anti-speculative monetary interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Rosaria Rita Canale & G. Liotti, 2022. "Target2 imbalances and poverty in the eurozone," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 32(5), pages 1395-1417, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joevec:v:32:y:2022:i:5:d:10.1007_s00191-022-00797-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s00191-022-00797-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00191-022-00797-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00191-022-00797-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maurice Obstfeld, 1986. "Speculative Attack and the External Constraint in a Maximizing Model of the Balance of Payments," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 19(1), pages 1-22, February.
    2. Gros, Daniel, 2012. "Macroeconomic Imbalances in the Euro Area: Symptom or cause of the crisis?," CEPS Papers 6865, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    3. Eladio Febrero & Jorge Uxó & Fernando Bermejo, 2018. "The financial crisis in the eurozone: a balance-of-payments crisis with a single currency?," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 6(2), pages 221-239, April.
    4. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    5. Paul de Grauwe, 2013. "Design Failures in the Eurozone: Can they be fixed?," Europe in Question Discussion Paper Series of the London School of Economics (LEQs) 7, London School of Economics / European Institute.
    6. Rosaria Canale & Ugo Marani, 2015. "Current account and fiscal imbalances in the Eurozone: Siamese twins in an asymmetrical currency union," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 189-203, June.
    7. Makin, Anthony J. & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2011. "Have domestic or foreign factors driven European external imbalances?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 537-546, April.
    8. Joakim Westerlund, 2007. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(6), pages 709-748, December.
    9. Sergio Cesaratto, 2017. "Alternative interpretations of a stateless currency crisis," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 41(4), pages 977-998.
    10. Engelbert Stockhammer, 2015. "Rising inequality as a cause of the present crisis," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 39(3), pages 935-958.
    11. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2013. "Self-fulfilling crises in the Eurozone: An empirical test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 15-36.
    12. Olivier J. Blanchard & Daniel Leigh, 2013. "Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 117-120, May.
    13. Marc Lavoie, 2015. "The Eurozone Crisis: A Balance-of-Payments Problem or a Crisis Due to a Flawed Monetary Design?," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(2), pages 157-160, April.
    14. Fatás, Antonio & Summers, Lawrence H., 2018. "The permanent effects of fiscal consolidations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 238-250.
    15. Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2012. "Target loans, current account balances and capital flows: the ECB’s rescue facility," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(4), pages 468-508, August.
    16. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. & Smith, R. P., 1997. "Pooled Estimation of Long-run Relationships in Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9721, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    17. Raphael A. Auer, 2014. "What drives TARGET2 balances? Evidence from a panel analysis [What drives Target2 balances? Evidence from a panel analysis]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 29(77), pages 139-197.
    18. Giorgio Liotti & Rosaria Rita Canale, 2021. "Trust in the European Union project and the role of ECB," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(2), pages 461-482, July.
    19. Edward F. Blackburne III & Mark W. Frank, 2007. "Estimation of nonstationary heterogeneous panels," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 7(2), pages 197-208, June.
    20. Juan Barredo-Zuriarrain & Manuel Cerezal-Callizo, 2019. "Lessons from the SUCRE and TARGET2 systems for a sound international monetary system in a financialized economy," Post-Print halshs-02089770, HAL.
    21. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange rates and financial fragility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 329-368.
    22. Gros, Daniel, 2017. "Target imbalances at record levels: Should we worry?," CEPS Papers 13209, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    23. Flood, Robert P. & Marion, Nancy P., 2000. "Self-fulfilling risk predictions:: an application to speculative attacks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 245-268, February.
    24. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    25. Kenworthy, Lane, 2013. "Progress for the Poor," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199676927.
    26. Sweta C. Saxena, 2004. "The Changing Nature of Currency Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 321-350, July.
    27. Knight, J B & Sabot, R H, 1983. "Educational Expansion and the Kuznets Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 1132-1136, December.
    28. Daryl Pregibon, 1980. "Goodness of Link Tests for Generalized Linear Models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 29(1), pages 15-24, March.
    29. Romina Boarini & Marco Mira d'Ercole, 2006. "Measures of Material Deprivation in OECD Countries," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 37, OECD Publishing.
    30. Oscar Jorda & Alan Taylor & Sanjay Singh, 2019. "The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy," 2019 Meeting Papers 1307, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    31. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    32. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2002. "Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area: The End of the Feldstein Horioka Puzzle?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 147-210.
    33. Canale, Rosaria Rita & De Simone, Elina & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2021. "Financial markets and fiscal discipline in the Eurozone," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 490-499.
    34. Canale, Rosaria Rita & Liotti, Giorgio & Marani, Ugo, 2019. "Structural public balance adjustment and poverty in Europe," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 227-236.
    35. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:29:y:2014:i:77:p:139-197 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Louis-Philippe Rochon & Mark Setterfield, 2007. "Interest rates, income distribution, and monetary policy dominance: Post Keynesians and the "fair rate" of interest," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 13-42.
    37. Brian Nolan & Christopher T. Whelan, 2010. "Using non-monetary deprivation indicators to analyze poverty and social exclusion: Lessons from Europe?," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 305-325.
    38. Marcello Minenna & Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini, 2018. "ECB monetary expansions and euro area TARGET2 imbalances: a balance-of-payment-based decomposition," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 15(2), pages 147-159, September.
    39. Eric Crettaz & Christian Suter, 2013. "The Impact of Adaptive Preferences on Subjective Indicators: An Analysis of Poverty Indicators," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 114(1), pages 139-152, October.
    40. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rosaria Rita Canale & Giorgio Liotti, 2022. "Absolute Poverty and Sound Public Finance in the Eurozone," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(2), pages 327-344, June.
    2. Canale, Rosaria Rita & Liotti, Giorgio & Marani, Ugo, 2019. "Structural public balance adjustment and poverty in Europe," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 227-236.
    3. Canale, Rosaria Rita & Liotti, Giorgio & Musella, Marco, 2022. "Labour market flexibility and workers’ living conditions in Europe," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 441-450.
    4. Canale, Rosaria Rita & De Simone, Elina & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2021. "Financial markets and fiscal discipline in the Eurozone," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 490-499.
    5. Karsten Kohler, 2024. "Capital Flows and the Eurozone's North-South Divide," Politics & Society, , vol. 52(2), pages 304-330, June.
    6. Rosaria Canale & Ugo Marani, 2015. "Current account and fiscal imbalances in the Eurozone: Siamese twins in an asymmetrical currency union," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 189-203, June.
    7. Jian Xue & Zeeshan Rasool & Raima Nazar & Ahmad Imran Khan & Shaukat Hussain Bhatti & Sajid Ali, 2021. "Revisiting Natural Resources—Globalization-Environmental Quality Nexus: Fresh Insights from South Asian Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-19, April.
    8. Salisu, Afees A. & Ndako, Umar B., 2018. "Modelling stock price–exchange rate nexus in OECD countries: A new perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 105-123.
    9. Shreesh Chary, 2023. "The nexus between arms imports, military expenditures and economic growth of the top arms importers in the world: a pooled mean group approach," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 51(4), pages 808-822, August.
    10. Esposito, Piero & Messori, Marcello, 2019. "Competitive or recession gains? On the recent macroeconomic rebalances in the EMU," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 147-167.
    11. Mushtaq Ahmad Malik & Tariq Masood, 2022. "Dynamics of Output Growth and Convergence in the Middle East and North African Countries: Heterogeneous Panel ARDL Approach," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 13(2), pages 1444-1469, June.
    12. Mariarosaria Comunale & Jeroen Hessel, 2014. "Current account imbalances in the Euro area: Competitiveness or financial cycle?," DNB Working Papers 443, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    13. Steiner, Andreas & Steinkamp, Sven & Westermann, Frank, 2019. "Exit strategies, capital flight and speculative attacks: Europe's version of the trilemma," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 83-96.
    14. Comunale, Mariarosaria, 2018. "Current account and real effective exchange rate misalignments in Central Eastern EU countries: An update using the macroeconomic balance approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 414-436.
    15. Chan, Kenneth S. & Dang, Vinh Q.T. & Lai, Jennifer T., 2018. "Capital market integration in ASEAN: A non-stationary panel data analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 249-260.
    16. Ricardo Cabral & Francisco Louçã, 2019. "The euro at twenty: Follies of youth?," Revista de Economia Critica, Asociacion de Economia Critica, vol. 27, pages 59-69.
    17. Fisera, Boris & Workie Tiruneh, Menbere & Hojdan, David, 2021. "Currency depreciations in emerging economies: A blessing or a curse for external debt management?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 132-165.
    18. Joseph David, 2024. "The role of corruption in the oil price–growth relationship: Insights from oil-rich economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(6), pages 1-32, December.
    19. Valerio Filoso, Valerio & Panico, Carlo & Papagni, Erasmo & Francesco, Purificato & Vázquez Suarez, Marta, 2016. "Causes and timing of the European debt crisis: An econometric evaluation," MPRA Paper 75847, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Liu, Zhen & Ngo, Thanh Quang & Saydaliev, Hayot Berk & He, Huiyuan & Ali, Sajid, 2022. "How do trade openness, public expenditure and institutional performance affect unemployment in OIC countries? Evidence from the DCCE approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(4).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Poverty; Target2; Interest rates; Growth; Eurozone; Dynamic panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions
    • I30 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:joevec:v:32:y:2022:i:5:d:10.1007_s00191-022-00797-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.