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Decision framework for evaluating the macroeconomic risks and policy impacts of cyber attacks

Author

Listed:
  • Andjelka Kelic

    (Sandia National Laboratories)

  • Zachary A. Collier

    (US Army Engineer Research and Development Center)

  • Christopher Brown

    (Regional Economic Models, Inc.)

  • Walter E. Beyeler

    (Sandia National Laboratories)

  • Alexander V. Outkin

    (Sandia National Laboratories)

  • Vanessa N. Vargas

    (Sandia National Laboratories)

  • Mark A. Ehlen

    (Sandia National Laboratories)

  • Christopher Judson

    (Regional Economic Models, Inc.)

  • Ali Zaidi

    (Regional Economic Models, Inc.)

  • Billy Leung

    (Regional Economic Models, Inc.)

  • Igor Linkov

    (US Army Engineer Research and Development Center)

Abstract

Increased reliance on the Internet for critical infrastructure and the global nature of supply chains provides an opportunity for adversaries to leverage dependencies and gain access to vital infrastructure. Traditional approaches to assessing risk in the cyber domain, including estimation of impacts, fall short due to uncertainty in how interconnected systems react to cyber attack. This paper describes a method to represent the pathways of disruption propagation, evaluate the macroeconomic impact of cyber threats and aid in selecting among various cybersecurity policies. Based on state of the art agent-based modeling, multicriteria decision analysis, and macroeconomic modeling tools, this framework provides dynamic macroeconomic, demographic and fiscal insights regarding shocks caused by cyber attacks to the regional economy over time. The interlinkage of these models will provide a robust and adaptive system that allows policy makers to evaluate complex issues such as cybersecurity threats and their impacts on the geopolitical, social, environmental, and macroeconomic landscape.

Suggested Citation

  • Andjelka Kelic & Zachary A. Collier & Christopher Brown & Walter E. Beyeler & Alexander V. Outkin & Vanessa N. Vargas & Mark A. Ehlen & Christopher Judson & Ali Zaidi & Billy Leung & Igor Linkov, 2013. "Decision framework for evaluating the macroeconomic risks and policy impacts of cyber attacks," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 544-560, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:envsyd:v:33:y:2013:i:4:d:10.1007_s10669-013-9479-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s10669-013-9479-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel DiMase & Zachary A. Collier & Jinae Carlson & Robin B. Gray & Igor Linkov, 2016. "Traceability and Risk Analysis Strategies for Addressing Counterfeit Electronics in Supply Chains for Complex Systems," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(10), pages 1834-1843, October.
    2. Alexander A. Ganin & Phuoc Quach & Mahesh Panwar & Zachary A. Collier & Jeffrey M. Keisler & Dayton Marchese & Igor Linkov, 2020. "Multicriteria Decision Framework for Cybersecurity Risk Assessment and Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(1), pages 183-199, January.
    3. Zachary A. Collier & Igor Linkov & James H. Lambert, 2013. "Four domains of cybersecurity: a risk-based systems approach to cyber decisions," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 469-470, December.
    4. Daniel DiMase & Zachary A. Collier & Kenneth Heffner & Igor Linkov, 2015. "Systems engineering framework for cyber physical security and resilience," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 291-300, June.
    5. Cheung, Kam-Fung & Bell, Michael G.H. & Bhattacharjya, Jyotirmoyee, 2021. "Cybersecurity in logistics and supply chain management: An overview and future research directions," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).

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