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Multi-hazard, multi-infrastructure, economic scenario analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Mark A. Ehlen

    (Sandia National Laboratories)

  • Vanessa N. Vargas

    (Sandia National Laboratories)

Abstract

Over the past 10 years, the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) has conducted over 150 detailed multi-hazard, multi-infrastructure scenario analyses of a wide range of man-made and natural disasters. Using a model-based implementation of the Department of Homeland Security risk management framework, NISAC analyzes scenarios ranging from extreme-event situational awareness to long-term strategic policy for improved homeland security and resilience to these events. This article describes the essential elements of the NISAC scenario analysis process, the toolkit of subject-matter expertise and models used, with a particular focus on the economics component. An example set of Hurricane Katrina economic-analysis results is used to illustrate basic elements of NISAC economics scenario analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark A. Ehlen & Vanessa N. Vargas, 2013. "Multi-hazard, multi-infrastructure, economic scenario analysis," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 60-75, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:envsyd:v:33:y:2013:i:1:d:10.1007_s10669-013-9432-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10669-013-9432-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stéphane Hallegatte & Valentin Przyluski, 2010. "The Economics of Natural Disasters," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(02), pages 14-24, July.
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    5. Stéphane Hallegatte, 2008. "An Adaptive Regional Input‐Output Model and its Application to the Assessment of the Economic Cost of Katrina," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(3), pages 779-799, June.
    6. Albala-Bertrand, J. M., 1993. "Natural disaster situations and growth: A macroeconomic model for sudden disaster impacts," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 21(9), pages 1417-1434, September.
    7. Hallegatte, Stephane & Przyluski, Valentin, 2010. "The economics of natural disasters : concepts and methods," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5507, The World Bank.
    8. Stéphane Hallegatte, 2008. "An adaptive regional input-output model and its application to the assessment of the economic cost of Katrina," Post-Print hal-00716550, HAL.
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    Cited by:

    1. Frauke Hoss & Kelly Klima & Paul Fischbeck, 2014. "Ten strategies to systematically exploit all options to cope with anthropogenic climate change," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 578-590, December.
    2. Qing’e Wang & Mengmeng Su & Lei Zeng & Huihua Chen, 2022. "A New Method to Assist Decision-Making of Water Environmental Emergency in Expressway Region," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(16), pages 1-19, August.
    3. Vanessa N. Vargas & Mark A. Ehlen, 2013. "REAcct: a scenario analysis tool for rapidly estimating economic impacts of major natural and man-made hazards," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 76-88, March.
    4. Dmitry Borisoglebsky & Liz Varga, 2019. "A Resilience Toolbox and Research Design for Black Sky Hazards to Power Grids," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-15, June.
    5. Andjelka Kelic & Zachary A. Collier & Christopher Brown & Walter E. Beyeler & Alexander V. Outkin & Vanessa N. Vargas & Mark A. Ehlen & Christopher Judson & Ali Zaidi & Billy Leung & Igor Linkov, 2013. "Decision framework for evaluating the macroeconomic risks and policy impacts of cyber attacks," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 544-560, December.

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