IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/envpol/v7y2006i3d10.1007_bf03353998.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessment of emissions scenarios revisited

Author

Listed:
  • Nebojsa Nakicenovic

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Peter Kolp

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Keywan Riahi

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Mikiko Kainuma

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES))

  • Tatsuya Hanaoka

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES))

Abstract

This article assesses emissions scenarios in the literature, originally documented in the scenario database that was developed more than 7 years ago. The original scenario assessment and literature review has been used, among other things, as the basis for the quantification of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) reference scenarios and the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) stabilization scenarios. In the meantime, a large number of new emissions scenarios have been developed and published. We have collected the relevant information about these new scenarios with the objective to assess the more recent perspectives about future global emissions and to assess the changes in the perspectives about future emissions and their driving forces that may have occurred since the publication of SRES and TAR scenarios. Our analysis goes beyond mere comparisons of emissions ranges. In particular, we explore the underlying drivers of emissions using the so-called IPAT identity (Impacts are proportional to the product of Population, Affluence, and Technology). When IPAT analysis refers to carbon emissions it is called the Kaya identity, where carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are assumed to correspond to the product of population, per capita income, energy intensity of gross domestic product (GDP), and CO2 intensity of energy. Comparing the recent scenario literature with the scenarios developed before TAR shows that there are strong similarities for the main underlying tendencies in many of the scenario’s driving forces and results.

Suggested Citation

  • Nebojsa Nakicenovic & Peter Kolp & Keywan Riahi & Mikiko Kainuma & Tatsuya Hanaoka, 2006. "Assessment of emissions scenarios revisited," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 7(3), pages 137-173, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:envpol:v:7:y:2006:i:3:d:10.1007_bf03353998
    DOI: 10.1007/BF03353998
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/BF03353998
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/BF03353998?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Reilly & Marcus Sarofim & Sergey Paltsev & Ronald Prinn, 2006. "The Role of Non-CO2 GHGs in Climate Policy: Analysis Using the MIT IGSM," The Energy Journal, , vol. 27(3_suppl), pages 503-520, December.
    2. Peck, Stephen C & Teisberg, Thomas J, 1995. "International CO2 emissions control : An analysis using CETA," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4-5), pages 297-308.
    3. John P. Weyant, 1993. "Costs of Reducing Global Carbon Emissions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(4), pages 27-46, Fall.
    4. Ottmar Edenhofer & Kai Lessmann & Claudia Kemfert & Michael Grubb & Jonathan Köhler, 2006. "Induced Technological Change: Exploring its Implications for the Economics of Atmospheric Stabilization: Synthesis Report from the innovation Modeling Comparison Project," The Energy Journal, , vol. 27(1_suppl), pages 57-108, January.
    5. Wolfgang Lutz & Warren Sanderson & Sergei Scherbov, 2001. "The end of world population growth," Nature, Nature, vol. 412(6846), pages 543-545, August.
    6. Claudia Kemfert, Truong P. Truong, and Thomas Bruckner, 2006. "Economic Impact Assessment of Climate Change - A Multi-gas Investigation with WIAGEM-GTAPEL-ICM," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 441-460.
    7. Alan Manne & Richard Richels, 1995. "The Greenhouse Debate: Economic Efficiency, Burden Sharing and Hedging Strategies," The Energy Journal, , vol. 16(4), pages 1-37, October.
    8. Weyant, John P., 2004. "Introduction and overview," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 501-515, July.
    9. Wolfgang Lutz & Warren Sanderson & Sergei Scherbov, 1997. "Doubling of world population unlikely," Nature, Nature, vol. 387(6635), pages 803-805, June.
    10. Kurosawa, Atsushi, 2004. "Carbon concentration target and technological choice," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 675-684, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kristian Skånberg & Åsa Svenfelt, 2022. "Expanding the IPAT identity to quantify backcasting sustainability scenarios," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(2), June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nebojsa Nakicenovic & Peter Kolp & Keywan Riahi & Mikiko Kainuma & Tatsuya Hanaoka, 2006. "Assessment of emissions scenarios revisited," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 7(3), pages 137-173, September.
    2. Tol, Richard S.J., 2012. "A cost–benefit analysis of the EU 20/20/2020 package," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 288-295.
    3. Tol, Richard S.J., 2013. "Targets for global climate policy: An overview," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 911-928.
    4. Kuik, Onno & Brander, Luke & Tol, Richard S.J., 2009. "Marginal abatement costs of greenhouse gas emissions: A meta-analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1395-1403, April.
    5. Tsuneyuki Morita & Hae-Cheol Lee, 1998. "Appendix: IPCC Emissions Scenarios Database," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 1-4, December.
    6. Booth, Heather, 2006. "Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 547-581.
    7. Alho, Juha, 2008. "Aggregation across countries in stochastic population forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 343-353.
    8. David Lam, 2011. "How the World Survived the Population Bomb: Lessons From 50 Years of Extraordinary Demographic History," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(4), pages 1231-1262, November.
    9. Meng Xu & Helge Brunborg & Joel E. Cohen, 2017. "Evaluating multi-regional population projections with Taylor’s law of mean–variance scaling and its generalisation," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 79-99, March.
    10. Wei, Yi-Ming & Mi, Zhi-Fu & Huang, Zhimin, 2015. "Climate policy modeling: An online SCI-E and SSCI based literature review," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 57(PA), pages 70-84.
    11. Wang, Ke & Wang, Can & Chen, Jining, 2009. "Analysis of the economic impact of different Chinese climate policy options based on a CGE model incorporating endogenous technological change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2930-2940, August.
    12. Gusdorf, Francois & Hallegatte, Stephane, 2007. "Behaviors and housing inertia are key factors in determining the consequences of a shock in transportation costs," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 3483-3495, June.
    13. Tol, Richard S.J., 2006. "Why Worry About Climate Change? A Research Agenda," Climate Change Modelling and Policy Working Papers 12047, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    14. Rick Baker & Andrew Barker & Alan Johnston & Michael Kohlhaas, 2008. "The Stern Review: an assessment of its methodology," Staff Working Papers 0801, Productivity Commission, Government of Australia.
    15. Heintz, Roebyem J & Tol, Richard SJ, 1995. "Joint implementation and uniform mixing," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(10), pages 911-917, October.
    16. Gillingham, Kenneth & Newell, Richard G. & Pizer, William A., 2008. "Modeling endogenous technological change for climate policy analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 2734-2753, November.
    17. Keller, Klaus & Miltich, Louise I. & Robinson, Alexander & Tol, Richard S.J., 2007. "How Overconfident are Current Projections of Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide Emissions?," Climate Change Modelling and Policy Working Papers 9321, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    18. Warren C Sanderson & Sergei Scherbov & Patrick Gerland, 2017. "Probabilistic population aging," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(6), pages 1-12, June.
    19. Bailey Fosdick & Adrian E. Raftery, 2014. "Regional probabilistic fertility forecasting by modeling between-country correlations," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 30(35), pages 1011-1034.
    20. Heinz Stefan, 2014. "Uncertainty quantification of world population growth: A self-similar PDF model," Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 261-277, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:envpol:v:7:y:2006:i:3:d:10.1007_bf03353998. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.