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On the effects of climate variability on agricultural crops: evidence from an in-transition economy

Author

Listed:
  • Younes Ben Zaied

    (EDC Paris Business School)

  • Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh

    (ESSCA School of Management)

  • Mbarek Rahmoun

    (King Abdulaziz University)

Abstract

The report by the IPPC (2007) estimated that 20% of all climate change effects will have an impact on the agricultural sector. While climate change has been identified as a key factor affecting yields and the availability and quality of agricultural products, empirical findings from the recent literature remain inconclusive as regards the effects of climatic elements—such as temperature and rainfall—on agricultural yields. This paper examines how weather affects the yields of agricultural crops while allowing for nonlinearity in the cause-effect transmission mechanism, and using an original database from different sources in Tunisia related to climate variables (temperature and rainfall) and regional crops (cereals) in 24 regions. We propose the implementation of a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) approach which allows for a possible presence of threshold effects of temperature and rainfall on crop yields. Our results suggest that the positive impact of rainfall on crop productivity is reduced when the temperature is high. However, the rising temperature has more beneficial effects on crop yields if rainfalls enter the high regime. Therefore, adaptation measures are strongly recommended to cope with climatic conditions. For instance, a public policy related to the water demand management system that promotes the efficient use of scarce water resources would be helpful for privileging and subsidizing the areas that are threatened. Moreover, policymakers should consider encouraging the development of drought-tolerant crops, especially in Southern Tunisia, where global warming has caused a severe drought. In Northern Tunisia, adaptation measures may include choosing tree species and forestry practices less vulnerable to storms and fires, especially in Jendouba, the region of Tunisia that is highly forested.

Suggested Citation

  • Younes Ben Zaied & Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh & Mbarek Rahmoun, 2023. "On the effects of climate variability on agricultural crops: evidence from an in-transition economy," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 25(2), pages 143-159, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:envpol:v:25:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s10018-022-00348-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10018-022-00348-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Waldman, Kurt B. & Richardson, Robert B., 2018. "Confronting Tradeoffs Between Agricultural Ecosystem Services and Adaptation to Climate Change in Mali," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 184-193.
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    4. Chen, Shuai & Chen, Xiaoguang & Xu, Jintao, 2016. "Impacts of climate change on agriculture: Evidence from China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 105-124.
    5. Wolfram Schlenker & Michael J. Roberts, 2008. "Estimating the Impact of Climate Change on Crop Yields: The Importance of Nonlinear Temperature Effects," NBER Working Papers 13799, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Wolfram Schlenker & Michael J. Roberts, 2006. "Nonlinear Effects of Weather on Corn Yields," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 28(3), pages 391-398.
    7. Veljanoska, Stefanija, 2018. "Can Land Fragmentation Reduce the Exposure of Rural Households to Weather Variability?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 42-51.
    8. Amadu, Festus O. & Miller, Daniel C. & McNamara, Paul E., 2020. "Agroforestry as a pathway to agricultural yield impacts in climate-smart agriculture investments: Evidence from southern Malawi," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    9. Maia, Alexandre Gori & Miyamoto, Bruno César Brito & Garcia, Junior Ruiz, 2018. "Climate Change and Agriculture: Do Environmental Preservation and Ecosystem Services Matter?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 27-39.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine & Ben Zaied, Younes, 2024. "Understanding the drivers of the renewable energy transition," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 604-612.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change impacts; Cereal crops; Panel smooth transition regression models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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