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The non-linear impact of monetary policy on international reserves: macroeconomic variables nexus

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  • Po-Chin Wu

    (Chung Yuan Christian University)

  • Chung-Chih Lee

    (Chung Yuan Christian University)

Abstract

This paper employs panel smooth transition regression models to investigate the nonlinear effects of two monetary policy proxies (i.e., real exchange rate return and real interest rate differential) on the international reserves—macroeconomic variables nexus. The panel data set includes the fourteen G-20 countries during the period 1991–2012. Empirical results show that the marginal effects of the macroeconomic variables (savings, terms of trade, public debt, capital account liberalization, economic growth, and trade openness) on international reserves are non-linear and vary with time, the proxies and countries, not linear and constant derived from traditional linear model. Currency devaluation policy (against the US dollar) can non-linearly enlarge the positive contribution of trade openness and public debt on international reserves, and non-linearly reduce the negative impact of terms of trade on international reserves, as the Marshall–Lerner condition holds. Expansionary monetary policy (through the decrease in domestic interest rates) can strengthen the positive effects of public debt, trade openness, and economic growth on international reserves. The precautionary and mercantilist views of reserves holdings are partially supported.

Suggested Citation

  • Po-Chin Wu & Chung-Chih Lee, 2018. "The non-linear impact of monetary policy on international reserves: macroeconomic variables nexus," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(1), pages 165-185, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:45:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10663-016-9353-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10663-016-9353-3
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model; International reveres; Real exchange rate return; Real interest rate differential;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models

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