IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/endesu/v26y2024i10d10.1007_s10668-023-03676-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The future of protein feed: a case study of sustainable substitutes in the German livestock industry

Author

Listed:
  • Sakson Soisontes

    (Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute — Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries, Institute of Market Analysis)

  • Florian Freund

    (Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute — Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries, Institute of Market Analysis)

  • Verena Laquai

    (Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute — Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries, Institute of Market Analysis)

Abstract

The use of imported soybean/soybean meal is criticized in the context of the sustainability discussion in Germany. Imported soybean is often associated with deforestation and genetic modification, which is largely viewed critically by consumers. This study aims to forecast changes in future demand for imported soybean/soybean meal and its possible substitutes in the German livestock industry. The two-round Delphi method was used in the study by sending questionnaires to 28 experts from four groups: food retailers, livestock associations, animal nutrition manufacturers and research institutes. Our main result is that the total use of soybeans in German livestock farming will decrease from almost 4 million tons of soybean equivalents in 2018/19 to approximately 3.4 million tons by 2030/31. In contrast, the share of non-GM soybean is forecast to increase from 26 to 53%. Factors that influence the increased use of non-GM protein feeds most are “specifications from downstream processors” and “demand from the feed industry.” Experts forecast that about 36% of imported soybean/soybean meal (from non-EU countries) for German livestock farming could be replaced by protein feed produced in the EU. Rapeseed was considered to have a particularly high potential for production in the EU, followed by soybean and sunflower. Experts considered the factors: “requirements by the food retailers,” “reasonable price,” “political regulation” and “better profitability for the producer” as the most influential for extended use of regional protein feeds.

Suggested Citation

  • Sakson Soisontes & Florian Freund & Verena Laquai, 2024. "The future of protein feed: a case study of sustainable substitutes in the German livestock industry," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(10), pages 25199-25226, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:26:y:2024:i:10:d:10.1007_s10668-023-03676-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-023-03676-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10668-023-03676-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10668-023-03676-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ash, Mark S., 1992. "Animal Feeds Compendium," Agricultural Economic Reports 308262, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Venus, Thomas J. & Drabik, Dusan & Wesseler, Justus, 2018. "The role of a German multi-stakeholder standard for livestock products derived from non-GMO feed," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 58-67.
    3. Julia Jouan & Aude Ridier & Matthieu Carof, 2020. "Legume production and use in feed: Analysis of levers to improve protein self-sufficiency from foresight scenarios," Post-Print hal-02907077, HAL.
    4. Markmann, Christoph & Darkow, Inga-Lena & von der Gracht, Heiko, 2013. "A Delphi-based risk analysis — Identifying and assessing future challenges for supply chain security in a multi-stakeholder environment," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(9), pages 1815-1833.
    5. Rowe, Gene & Wright, George, 1999. "The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 353-375, October.
    6. Gaitán-Cremaschi, Daniel & Kamali, Farahnaz Pashaei & van Evert, Frits K. & Meuwissen, Miranda P.M. & Oude Lansink, Alfons G.J.M., 2015. "Benchmarking the sustainability performance of the Brazilian non-GM and GM soybean meal chains: An indicator-based approach," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 22-32.
    7. Makkonen, Marika & Hujala, Teppo & Uusivuori, Jussi, 2016. "Policy experts' propensity to change their opinion along Delphi rounds," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 61-68.
    8. Hop, G.E. & Mourits, M.C.M. & Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M. & Saatkamp, H.W., 2014. "Future structural developments in Dutch and German livestock production and implications for contagious livestock disease control," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 95-114.
    9. Kluge, Ulrike & Ringbeck, Jürgen & Spinler, Stefan, 2020. "Door-to-door travel in 2035 – A Delphi study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    10. Castellari, Elena & Soregaroli, Claudio & Venus, Thomas J. & Wesseler, Justus, 2018. "Food processor and retailer non-GMO standards in the US and EU and the driving role of regulations," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 26-37.
    11. Peppel, Marcel & Ringbeck, Jürgen & Spinler, Stefan, 2022. "How will last-mile delivery be shaped in 2040? A Delphi-based scenario study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    12. Melander, Lisa & Dubois, Anna & Hedvall, Klas & Lind, Frida, 2019. "Future goods transport in Sweden 2050: Using a Delphi-based scenario analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 178-189.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Antonelli, Marta & Basile, Linda & Gagliardi, Francesca & Isernia, Pierangelo, 2022. "The future of the Mediterranean agri-food systems: Trends and perspectives from a Delphi survey," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    2. Kawamoto, Carlos Tadao & Wright, James Terence Coulter & Spers, Renata Giovinazzo & de Carvalho, Daniel Estima, 2019. "Can we make use of perception of questions' easiness in Delphi-like studies? Some results from an experiment with an alternative feedback," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 296-305.
    3. Belton, Ian & MacDonald, Alice & Wright, George & Hamlin, Iain, 2019. "Improving the practical application of the Delphi method in group-based judgment: A six-step prescription for a well-founded and defensible process," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 72-82.
    4. Barrios, Maite & Guilera, Georgina & Nuño, Laura & Gómez-Benito, Juana, 2021. "Consensus in the delphi method: What makes a decision change?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    5. Kai Purnhagen & Justus Wesseler, 2021. "EU Regulation of New Plant Breeding Technologies and Their Possible Economic Implications for the EU and Beyond," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(4), pages 1621-1637, December.
    6. Fritschy, Carolin & Spinler, Stefan, 2019. "The impact of autonomous trucks on business models in the automotive and logistics industry–a Delphi-based scenario study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    7. Sillman, J. & Hynynen, K. & Dyukov, I. & Ahonen, T. & Jalas, M, 2023. "Emission reduction targets and electrification of the Finnish energy system with low-carbon Power-to-X technologies: Potentials, barriers, and innovations – A Delphi survey," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    8. Engelke, Henning & Mauksch, Stefanie & Darkow, Inga-Lena & von der Gracht, Heiko A., 2015. "Opportunities for social enterprise in Germany — Evidence from an expert survey," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PB), pages 635-646.
    9. Crispim, José & Fernandes, Jorge & Rego, Nazaré, 2020. "Customized risk assessment in military shipbuilding," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    10. Xu, Jinou & Pero, Margherita & Fabbri, Margherita, 2023. "Unfolding the link between big data analytics and supply chain planning," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    11. Schlecht, Laura & Schneider, Sabrina & Buchwald, Arne, 2021. "The prospective value creation potential of Blockchain in business models: A delphi study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    12. Kopyto, Matthias & Lechler, Sabrina & von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Hartmann, Evi, 2020. "Potentials of blockchain technology in supply chain management: Long-term judgments of an international expert panel," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    13. Tiberius, Victor & Gojowy, Robin & Dabić, Marina, 2022. "Forecasting the future of robo advisory: A three-stage Delphi study on economic, technological, and societal implications," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    14. Ghazy, Shams & Tang, Yu Hoe & Mugumya, Kevin Luwemba & Wong, Jing Ying & Chan, Andy, 2022. "Future-proofing Klang Valley’s veins with REBET: A framework for directing transportation technologies towards infrastructure resilience," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    15. Murali Krishna Penmetsa & Sebastian Juan Bruque Camara, 2022. "Building a Super Smart Nation: Scenario Analysis and Framework of Essential Stakeholders, Characteristics, Pillars, and Challenges," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-37, February.
    16. Prommer, Lisa & Tiberius, Victor & Kraus, Sascha, 2020. "Exploring the future of startup leadership development," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 14(C).
    17. Bas Kolen & Matthijs Kok & Ira Helsloot & Bob Maaskant, 2013. "EvacuAid: A Probabilistic Model to Determine the Expected Loss of Life for Different Mass Evacuation Strategies During Flood Threats," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(7), pages 1312-1333, July.
    18. Meissner, Philip & Brands, Christian & Wulf, Torsten, 2017. "Quantifiying blind spots and weak signals in executive judgment: A structured integration of expert judgment into the scenario development process," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 244-253.
    19. Fabio Salamanca-Buentello & Mary V Seeman & Abdallah S Daar & Ross E G Upshur, 2020. "The ethical, social, and cultural dimensions of screening for mental health in children and adolescents of the developing world," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(8), pages 1-25, August.
    20. Prianto Budi Saptono & Gustofan Mahmud & Intan Pratiwi & Dwi Purwanto & Ismail Khozen & Muhamad Akbar Aditama & Siti Khodijah & Maria Eurelia Wayan & Rina Yuliastuty Asmara & Ferry Jie, 2023. "Development of Climate-Related Disclosure Indicators for Application in Indonesia: A Delphi Method Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-25, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:26:y:2024:i:10:d:10.1007_s10668-023-03676-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.