IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/endesu/v25y2023i8d10.1007_s10668-022-02379-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spatiotemporal analysis of land use land cover and future simulation for agricultural sustainability in a sub-tropical region of India

Author

Listed:
  • Sucharita Pradhan

    (Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur)

  • Anirban Dhar

    (Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur)

  • Kamlesh Narayan Tiwari

    (Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur)

  • Satiprasad Sahoo

    (Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati)

Abstract

Spatial distribution of rice cultivated area and its future projections are indispensable for providing food security, irrigation water management, greenhouse gas emission, ecosystem, and environmental protection. Accurate simulation of future rice cultivation is challenging in the context of climate change involving spatial modeling. This study introduced a hydrological data-based prediction approach integrating cellular automata-Markov chain model with multi-criteria decision analysis. Three decadal transitions of different land use land cover (LULC) in an agricultural intensified canal irrigated area were analyzed using Random Forest algorithm. The Landsat satellite imageries were classified with an overall accuracy of more than 90%. The results revealed that the area under water sources, plantation, and fallow land decreased by 53.1%, 33.9%, and 63.6%, respectively, while habitation and Boro rice cultivated area increased significantly by 1243.3% and 211%, respectively, during 1988–2018. The kappa coefficient (0.86), allocation disagreement (10.9%), and quantity disagreement (1.16%) revealed good agreement between the predicted and classified LULC map of 2018. The probable distribution of the LULC map in 2028 and 2038 indicated 54.5% and 59.3% of the command area under Boro rice cultivation as a dominant land cover, respectively. Further, the predicted LULC map anticipated that Boro rice cultivation was likely to expand at the expense of plantation and fallow land which may lead to massive water scarcity in the near future. The proposed approach covered up the limitations of spatial modeling on agricultural growth trends by integrating significant driving factors with quantitative and spatiotemporal aspects of LULC transition. These findings will provide a baseline map for sustainable policy reformation and contemplation on the repercussions that local LULC transition has on global environmental change.

Suggested Citation

  • Sucharita Pradhan & Anirban Dhar & Kamlesh Narayan Tiwari & Satiprasad Sahoo, 2023. "Spatiotemporal analysis of land use land cover and future simulation for agricultural sustainability in a sub-tropical region of India," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(8), pages 7873-7902, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:25:y:2023:i:8:d:10.1007_s10668-022-02379-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-022-02379-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10668-022-02379-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10668-022-02379-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mansour, Shawky & Al-Belushi, Mohammed & Al-Awadhi, Talal, 2020. "Monitoring land use and land cover changes in the mountainous cities of Oman using GIS and CA-Markov modelling techniques," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    2. Cunha, Elias Rodrigues da & Santos, Celso Augusto Guimarães & Silva, Richarde Marques da & Bacani, Vitor Matheus & Pott, Arnildo, 2021. "Future scenarios based on a CA-Markov land use and land cover simulation model for a tropical humid basin in the Cerrado/Atlantic forest ecotone of Brazil," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    3. Matthew Rodell & Isabella Velicogna & James S. Famiglietti, 2009. "Satellite-based estimates of groundwater depletion in India," Nature, Nature, vol. 460(7258), pages 999-1002, August.
    4. Acharjee, Tapos Kumar & Ludwig, Fulco & van Halsema, Gerardo & Hellegers, Petra & Supit, Iwan, 2017. "Future changes in water requirements of Boro rice in the face of climate change in North-West Bangladesh," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 172-183.
    5. Laishram Kanta Singh & Madan K. Jha & V. M. Chowdary, 2021. "Evaluation of water demand and supply under varying meteorological conditions in Eastern India and mitigation strategies for sustainable agricultural production," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 1264-1291, February.
    6. David Tilman & Kenneth G. Cassman & Pamela A. Matson & Rosamond Naylor & Stephen Polasky, 2002. "Agricultural sustainability and intensive production practices," Nature, Nature, vol. 418(6898), pages 671-677, August.
    7. Shamsuddin Shahid & Manzul Hazarika, 2010. "Groundwater Drought in the Northwestern Districts of Bangladesh," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(10), pages 1989-2006, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Long & Huang, Xianjin & Yang, Hong, 2023. "Optimizing land use patterns to improve the contribution of land use planning to carbon neutrality target," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    2. Ram Fishman, 2018. "Groundwater depletion limits the scope for adaptation to increased rainfall variability in India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 195-209, March.
    3. Sucharita Pradhan & Anirban Dhar & Kamlesh Narayan Tiwari, 2022. "On Quantification of Groundwater Dynamics Under Long-term Land Use Land Cover Transition," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(11), pages 4039-4055, September.
    4. Yabo Zhao & Dixiang Xie & Xiwen Zhang & Shifa Ma, 2021. "Integrating Spatial Markov Chains and Geographically Weighted Regression-Based Cellular Automata to Simulate Urban Agglomeration Growth: A Case Study of the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-19, June.
    5. Kai Guo & Yiyun Chen & Min Chen & Chaojun Wang & Zeyi Chen & Weinan Cai & Renjie Li & Weiming Feng & Ming Jiang, 2021. "Causal Analysis of Ecological Impairment in Land Ecosystem on a Regional Scale: Applied to a Mining City Daye, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-21, May.
    6. Qihao Wang & Dongya Liu & Feiyao Gao & Xinqi Zheng & Yiqun Shang, 2023. "A Partitioned and Heterogeneous Land-Use Simulation Model by Integrating CA and Markov Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-20, February.
    7. Elisa Morri & Riccardo Santolini, 2021. "Ecosystem Services Valuation for the Sustainable Land Use Management by Nature-Based Solution (NbS) in the Common Agricultural Policy Actions: A Case Study on the Foglia River Basin (Marche Region, It," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-23, December.
    8. Salem, Golam Saleh Ahmed & Kazama, So & Shahid, Shamsuddin & Dey, Nepal C., 2018. "Impacts of climate change on groundwater level and irrigation cost in a groundwater dependent irrigated region," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 33-42.
    9. Liu, Duan & Tang, Runcheng & Xie, Jun & Tian, Jingjing & Shi, Rui & Zhang, Kai, 2020. "Valuation of ecosystem services of rice–fish coculture systems in Ruyuan County, China," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    10. Shen Yuan & Shaobing Peng, 2017. "Exploring the Trends in Nitrogen Input and Nitrogen Use Efficiency for Agricultural Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-15, October.
    11. Meena, Raj Pal & Karnam, Venkatesh & R, Sendhil & Rinki, & Sharma, R.K. & Tripathi, S.C. & Singh, Gyanendra Pratap, 2019. "Identification of water use efficient wheat genotypes with high yield for regions of depleting water resources in India," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 223(C), pages 1-1.
    12. Valbuena, Diego & Tui, Sabine Homann-Kee & Erenstein, Olaf & Teufel, Nils & Duncan, Alan & Abdoulaye, Tahirou & Swain, Braja & Mekonnen, Kindu & Germaine, Ibro & Gérard, Bruno, 2015. "Identifying determinants, pressures and trade-offs of crop residue use in mixed smallholder farms in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 107-118.
    13. Katarina Arvidsson Segerkvist & Helena Hansson & Ulf Sonesson & Stefan Gunnarsson, 2021. "A Systematic Mapping of Current Literature on Sustainability at Farm-Level in Beef and Lamb Meat Production," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-14, February.
    14. Vainio, Annukka & Tienhaara, Annika & Haltia, Emmi & Hyvönen, Terho & Pyysiäinen, Jarkko & Pouta, Eija, 2021. "The legitimacy of result-oriented and action-oriented agri-environmental schemes: A comparison of farmers’ and citizens’ perceptions," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    15. Hualin Xie & Yingqian Huang & Qianru Chen & Yanwei Zhang & Qing Wu, 2019. "Prospects for Agricultural Sustainable Intensification: A Review of Research," Land, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-27, October.
    16. Smith, Helen F. & Sullivan, Caroline A., 2014. "Ecosystem services within agricultural landscapes—Farmers' perceptions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 72-80.
    17. Soltani, Shiva & Mosavi, Seyed Habibollah & Saghaian, Sayed H. & Azhdari, Somayeh & Alamdarlo, Hamed N. & Khalilian, Sadegh, 2023. "Climate change and energy use efficiency in arid and semiarid agricultural areas: A case study of Hamadan-Bahar plain in Iran," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    18. Aude Ridier & Caroline Roussy & Karim Chaib, 2021. "Adoption of crop diversification by specialized grain farmers in south-western France: evidence from a choice-modelling experiment," Review of Agricultural, Food and Environmental Studies, Springer, vol. 102(3), pages 265-283, September.
    19. Paul L. G. Vlek & Asia Khamzina & Hossein Azadi & Anik Bhaduri & Luna Bharati & Ademola Braimoh & Christopher Martius & Terry Sunderland & Fatemeh Taheri, 2017. "Trade-Offs in Multi-Purpose Land Use under Land Degradation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-19, November.
    20. Diriba Shiferaw G., 2017. "Water-Nutrients Interaction: Exploring the Effects of Water as a Central Role for Availability & Use Efficiency of Nutrients by Shallow Rooted Vegetable Crops - A Review," Journal of Agriculture and Crops, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 3(10), pages 78-93, 10-2017.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:25:y:2023:i:8:d:10.1007_s10668-022-02379-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.