IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/endesu/v23y2021i9d10.1007_s10668-021-01239-w.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Improving outcomes for socioeconomic variables with coastal vulnerability index under significant sea-level rise: an approach from Mumbai coasts

Author

Listed:
  • Malay Kumar Pramanik

    (Jawaharlal Nehru University
    Department of Development and Sustainability, School of Environment, Resources and Development, Asian Institute of Technology (AIT), PO. Box 4, Klong Luang)

  • Poli Dash

    (Deshapran College of Teachers Education)

  • Dimple Behal

    (School of Planning and Architecture)

Abstract

Climate change has led to increased sea levels, which are caused by a complex interplay of the physical environment components from coastal areas, causing the rise in storm surge, erosion and flooding. In this scenario, the low-lying topography of the Mumbai region is highly susceptible to sea level-induced flooding and coastal erosion due to the increasing number of economic activities. The unsustainable urbanization, unplanned development, and huge land conversion lead to the destruction of this region lead to the destruction of mangroves and filled waterways with construction debris which makes the region more vulnerable to flooding due to inadequate drainage, overflow and absence of natural protectors. These human-induced factors and their impacts remain unknown. Therefore, the study uses four socioeconomic variables (CVI4) with five geological (CVI5) and three geological variables (CVI8; with integrating CVI5) to assess the role of developmental and socio-economic activities in overall coastal vulnerability (CVI12) analysis. To quantify the importance of the combined variables and understand the response, random forest (RF) model was also used. This study selected four different iterations with integrating the pixel-based differentially weighted rank values of all variables to determine the significant causes behind that have an impact on coastal vulnerability index (CVI). The results show that CVI5 and CVI8 contributed 7.8% and 36.9%, respectively, whereas CVI4 contributed 55.3% to the CVI12. The response curve shows that the influence of these variables is an increasing trend to CVI12 and the results of CVI12 are highly correlated with socioeconomic index variables (r = 0.84, p = 0.001) which indicates the socio-economic variables played a major role towards the coastal vulnerability of the region. It suggests that unsustainable urbanization, unplanned development and coastal erosion increasing pressure make Mumbai and Kurla region more vulnerable to flood. Accordingly, CVI12 results show 55.83 km of the shoreline surveyed, being very low vulnerable, a moderate vulnerability of 60.91 km, while a high vulnerability of 50.75 km is considered to be very high. The results may be used as a guide in formulating policies to mitigate and adjust the Mumbai coast as the rise in sea level is expected to cause more frequent coastal floods, etc.

Suggested Citation

  • Malay Kumar Pramanik & Poli Dash & Dimple Behal, 2021. "Improving outcomes for socioeconomic variables with coastal vulnerability index under significant sea-level rise: an approach from Mumbai coasts," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(9), pages 13819-13853, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:23:y:2021:i:9:d:10.1007_s10668-021-01239-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-021-01239-w
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10668-021-01239-w
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10668-021-01239-w?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Manik Mahapatra & Ratheesh Ramakrishnan & A. Rajawat, 2015. "Coastal vulnerability assessment using analytical hierarchical process for South Gujarat coast, India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(1), pages 139-159, March.
    2. Richard Wood, 2008. "Natural ups and downs," Nature, Nature, vol. 453(7191), pages 43-45, May.
    3. R. Mani Murali & M. J. Riyas & K. N. Reshma & S. Santhosh Kumar, 2020. "Climate change impact and vulnerability assessment of Mumbai city, India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 102(2), pages 575-589, June.
    4. Dasgupta, Susmita & Laplante, Benoit & Meisner, Craig & Wheeler, David & Jianping Yan, 2007. "The impact of sea level rise on developing countries : a comparative analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4136, The World Bank.
    5. Anitha Parthasarathy & Usha Natesan, 2015. "Coastal vulnerability assessment: a case study on erosion and coastal change along Tuticorin, Gulf of Mannar," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 1713-1729, January.
    6. Cynthia Rosenzweig & David Karoly & Marta Vicarelli & Peter Neofotis & Qigang Wu & Gino Casassa & Annette Menzel & Terry L. Root & Nicole Estrella & Bernard Seguin & Piotr Tryjanowski & Chunzhen Liu &, 2008. "Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 453(7193), pages 353-357, May.
    7. A. Arun Kumar & Pravin Kunte, 2012. "Coastal vulnerability assessment for Chennai, east coast of India using geospatial techniques," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 64(1), pages 853-872, October.
    8. Sutapa Chaudhuri & Debashree Dutta & Sayantika Goswami & Anirban Middey, 2013. "Intensity forecast of tropical cyclones over North Indian Ocean using multilayer perceptron model: skill and performance verification," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(1), pages 97-113, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Atul Kumar & Sunil Singh & Malay Pramanik & Shairy Chaudhary & Ashwani Kumar Maurya & Manoj Kumar, 2022. "Watershed prioritization for soil erosion mapping in the Lesser Himalayan Indian basin using PCA and WSA methods in conjunction with morphometric parameters and GIS-based approach," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 3723-3761, March.
    2. Shairy Chaudhary & Atul Kumar & Malay Pramanik & Mahabir Singh Negi, 2022. "Land evaluation and sustainable development of ecotourism in the Garhwal Himalayan region using geospatial technology and analytical hierarchy process," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 2225-2266, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Malay Kumar Pramanik, 2017. "Impacts of predicted sea level rise on land use/land cover categories of the adjacent coastal areas of Mumbai megacity, India," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 1343-1366, August.
    2. Jhantu Dey & Sayani Mazumder, 2023. "Development of an integrated coastal vulnerability index and its application to the low-lying Mandarmani–Dadanpatrabar coastal sector, India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(3), pages 3243-3273, April.
    3. Aishwarya Narendr & S. Vinay & Bharath Haridas Aithal & Sutapa Das, 2022. "Multi-dimensional parametric coastal flood risk assessment at a regional scale using GIS," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(7), pages 9569-9597, July.
    4. Chandra Shekhar Dwivedi & Shiva Teja Pampattiwar & Arvind Chandra Pandey & Bikash Ranjan Parida & Debashis Mitra & Navneet Kumar, 2023. "Characterization of the Coastal Vulnerability in Different Geological Settings: A Comparative Study on Kerala and Tamil Nadu Coasts Using FuzzyAHP," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-23, June.
    5. Rabia Yahia Meddah & Tarik Ghodbani & Rachida Senouci & Walid Rabehi & Lia Duarte & Ana Cláudia Teodoro, 2023. "Estimation of the Coastal Vulnerability Index Using Multi-Criteria Decision Making: The Coastal Social–Ecological System of Rachgoun, Western Algeria," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-28, August.
    6. Malay Kumar Pramanik & Sumantra Sarathi Biswas & Biswajit Mondal & Raghunath Pal, 2016. "Coastal vulnerability assessment of the predicted sea level rise in the coastal zone of Krishna–Godavari delta region, Andhra Pradesh, east coast of India," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 18(6), pages 1635-1655, December.
    7. Cucco, Andrea & Sinerchia, Matteo & Lefrançois, Christel & Magni, Paolo & Ghezzo, Michol & Umgiesser, Georg & Perilli, Angelo & Domenici, Paolo, 2012. "A metabolic scope based model of fish response to environmental changes," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 237, pages 132-141.
    8. Matthias Bruckner, 2012. "Climate change vulnerability and the identification of least developed countries," CDP Background Papers 015, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    9. Muhammad Atiq Ur Rehman Tariq & Cheuk Yin Wai & Nitin Muttil, 2020. "Vulnerability Assessment of Ubiquitous Cities Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-21, December.
    10. William Ginn, 2022. "Climate Disasters and the Macroeconomy: Does State-Dependence Matter? Evidence for the US," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 141-161, March.
    11. Muhammad Hussain & Muhammad Tayyab & Jiquan Zhang & Ashfaq Ahmad Shah & Kashif Ullah & Ummer Mehmood & Bazel Al-Shaibah, 2021. "GIS-Based Multi-Criteria Approach for Flood Vulnerability Assessment and Mapping in District Shangla: Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-29, March.
    12. Johnston, Robyn M. & Hoanh, Chu Thai & Lacombe, Guillaume & Noble, Andrew D. & Smakhtin, Vladimir & Suhardiman, Diana & Kam, Suan Pheng & Choo, P. S, 2009. "Scoping study on natural resources and climate change in Southeast Asia with a focus on agriculture. Final report," IWMI Research Reports H042414, International Water Management Institute.
    13. Klaus Desmet & Robert E. Kopp & Scott A. Kulp & Dávid Krisztián Nagy & Michael Oppenheimer & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg & Benjamin H. Strauss, 2021. "Evaluating the Economic Cost of Coastal Flooding," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 444-486, April.
    14. Bonfigli, Roberto & Principi, Emanuele & Fagiani, Marco & Severini, Marco & Squartini, Stefano & Piazza, Francesco, 2017. "Non-intrusive load monitoring by using active and reactive power in additive Factorial Hidden Markov Models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 1590-1607.
    15. Monika Winn & Manfred Kirchgeorg & Andrew Griffiths & Martina K. Linnenluecke & Elmar Günther, 2011. "Impacts from climate change on organizations: a conceptual foundation," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 157-173, March.
    16. Reinhard Mechler & Laurens Bouwer, 2015. "Understanding trends and projections of disaster losses and climate change: is vulnerability the missing link?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(1), pages 23-35, November.
    17. Dáithí Stone & Maximilian Auffhammer & Mark Carey & Gerrit Hansen & Christian Huggel & Wolfgang Cramer & David Lobell & Ulf Molau & Andrew Solow & Lourdes Tibig & Gary Yohe, 2013. "The challenge to detect and attribute effects of climate change on human and natural systems," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(2), pages 381-395, November.
    18. Ruby W. Grantham & Murray A. Rudd, 2017. "Household susceptibility to hydrological change in the Lower Mekong Basin," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(1), pages 3-17, February.
    19. Huu Ninh Nguyen, 2007. "Flooding in Mekong River Delta, Viet Nam," Human Development Occasional Papers (1992-2007) HDOCPA-2007-53, Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
    20. Adelaide Baronchelli & Roberto Ricciuti, 2018. "Climate change, rice production, and migration in Vietnamese households," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-86, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:23:y:2021:i:9:d:10.1007_s10668-021-01239-w. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.