IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/endesu/v23y2021i5d10.1007_s10668-020-00884-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Understanding COVID-19 transmission, health impacts and mitigation: timely social distancing is the key

Author

Listed:
  • Satinder Kaur

    (CSIR-National Environmental Engineering Research Institute)

  • Hemant Bherwani

    (CSIR-National Environmental Engineering Research Institute
    Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research (AcSIR))

  • Sunil Gulia

    (CSIR-National Environmental Engineering Research Institute)

  • Ritesh Vijay

    (CSIR-National Environmental Engineering Research Institute)

  • Rakesh Kumar

    (CSIR-National Environmental Engineering Research Institute)

Abstract

COVID-19 is a highly infectious disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, first identified in China and spread globally, resulting into pandemic. Transmission of virus takes place either directly through close contact with infected individual (symptomatic/asymptomatic) or indirectly by touching contaminated surfaces. Virus survives on the surfaces from few hours to days. It enters the human body through nose, eyes or mouth. Other sources of contamination are faeces, blood, food, water, semen etc. Parameters such as temperature/relative humidity also play an important role in transmission. As the disease is evolving, so are the number of cases. Proper planning and restriction are helping in influencing the trajectory of the transmission. Various measures are undertaken to prevent infection such as maintaining hygiene, using facemasks, isolation/quarantine, social/physical distancing, in extreme cases lockdown (restricted movement except essential services) in hot spot areas or throughout the country. Countries that introduced various mitigation measures had experienced control in transmission of COVID-19. Python programming is conducted for change point analysis (CPA) using Bayesian probability approach for understanding the impact of restrictions and mitigation methods in terms of either increase or stagnation in number of COVID-19 cases for eight countries. From analysis it is concluded that countries which acted late in bringing in the social distancing measures are suffering in terms of high number of cases with USA, leading among eight countries analysed. The CPA week in comparison with date of lockdown and first reported case strongly correlates (Pearson’s r = − 0.86 to − 0.97) to cases, cases per unit area and cases per unit population, indicating earlier the mitigation strategy, lesser the number of cases. The overall paper will help the decision makers in understanding the possible steps for mitigation, more so in developing countries where the fight against COVID-19 seems to have just begun.

Suggested Citation

  • Satinder Kaur & Hemant Bherwani & Sunil Gulia & Ritesh Vijay & Rakesh Kumar, 2021. "Understanding COVID-19 transmission, health impacts and mitigation: timely social distancing is the key," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 6681-6697, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:23:y:2021:i:5:d:10.1007_s10668-020-00884-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-020-00884-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10668-020-00884-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10668-020-00884-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sneha Gautam & Luc Hens, 2020. "SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in India: what might we expect?," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 3867-3869, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Amit Awasthi & Aditi Sharma & Prabhjot Kaur & Balakrishnaiah Gugamsetty & Akshay Kumar, 2021. "Statistical interpretation of environmental influencing parameters on COVID-19 during the lockdown in Delhi, India," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(6), pages 8147-8160, June.
    2. Mashura Shammi & Md. Bodrud-Doza & Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam & Md. Mostafizur Rahman, 2021. "Strategic assessment of COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh: comparative lockdown scenario analysis, public perception, and management for sustainability," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 6148-6191, April.
    3. Hemant Bherwani & Saima Anjum & Suman Kumar & Sneha Gautam & Ankit Gupta & Himanshu Kumbhare & Avneesh Anshul & Rakesh Kumar, 2021. "Understanding COVID-19 transmission through Bayesian probabilistic modeling and GIS-based Voronoi approach: a policy perspective," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 5846-5864, April.
    4. Pramod Soni, 2021. "Effects of COVID-19 lockdown phases in India: an atmospheric perspective," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(8), pages 12044-12055, August.
    5. Biswajit Bera & Sumana Bhattacharjee & Pravat Kumar Shit & Nairita Sengupta & Soumik Saha, 2021. "Significant impacts of COVID-19 lockdown on urban air pollution in Kolkata (India) and amelioration of environmental health," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 6913-6940, May.
    6. Alok Sagar Gautam & Nikhilesh Kumar Dilwaliya & Ayushi Srivastava & Sanjeev Kumar & Kuldeep Bauddh & Devendraa Siingh & M. A. Shah & Karan Singh & Sneha Gautam, 2021. "Temporary reduction in air pollution due to anthropogenic activity switch-off during COVID-19 lockdown in northern parts of India," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(6), pages 8774-8797, June.
    7. Mohammad Arif & Soumita Sengupta, 2021. "Nexus between population density and novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in the south Indian states: A geo-statistical approach," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(7), pages 10246-10274, July.
    8. Himadri Rajput & Rahil Changotra & Prachi Rajput & Sneha Gautam & Anjani R. K. Gollakota & Amarpreet Singh Arora, 2021. "A shock like no other: coronavirus rattles commodity markets," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 6564-6575, May.
    9. Sneha Gautam & Luc Hens, 2020. "COVID-19: impact by and on the environment, health and economy," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(6), pages 4953-4954, August.
    10. Soumita Sengupta & Sk. Mohinuddin & Mohammad Arif, 2021. "Spatiotemporal dynamics of temperature and precipitation with reference to COVID-19 pandemic lockdown: perspective from Indian subcontinent," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(9), pages 13778-13818, September.
    11. Mohammad Mazharul Islam & Mohammad Muzahidul Islam & Haitham Khoj, 2022. "Coping Mechanisms and Quality of Life of Low-Income Households during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-24, December.
    12. Hasan Eroğlu, 2021. "Effects of Covid-19 outbreak on environment and renewable energy sector," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 4782-4790, April.
    13. Shobande Olatunji & Ogbeifun Lawrence, 2020. "A Spatial Econometric Analysis on the Impact of COVID-19 on Mortality Outcome," Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 34(1), pages 179-200, February.
    14. Samuel Asumadu Sarkodie & Phebe Asantewaa Owusu, 2021. "Global assessment of environment, health and economic impact of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19)," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 5005-5015, April.
    15. Amarpreet Singh Arora & Himadri Rajput & Rahil Changotra, 2021. "Current perspective of COVID-19 spread across South Korea: exploratory data analysis and containment of the pandemic," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 6553-6563, May.
    16. Xinghua Zhao & Zheng Cheng & Chen Jiang, 2021. "Could Air Quality Get Better during Epidemic Prevention and Control in China? An Analysis Based on Regression Discontinuity Design," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-16, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:23:y:2021:i:5:d:10.1007_s10668-020-00884-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.